Falling cocoa prices won't necessarily mean cheaper Valentine's Day chocolates

Cocoa prices have fallen nearly 70% since last Valentine's Day, but that won't make heart-shaped boxes of chocolate or even chocolate Easter bunnies more affordable this year.

Chocolate prices at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to the same period last year, according to market research company Datasembly. That's on top of a 7.8% increase for the same period in 2025.

Europe has seen even steeper price increases. In Germany, chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures.

Here's what caused the price of cocoa futures to rise and then fall — and why that may not be reflected in the prices customers are paying.

Cocoa, climate and cost

Cocoa prices more than doubled in 2024 due to insufficient rainfall and crop diseases in West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world's cocoa. Cocoa, which is made from the dried beans of the cacao tree, is the main ingredient in both dark and white chocolate.

Weather conditions have improved since then in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and cocoa production is increasing in Ecuador and other countries, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan. The resulting supply increase is one reason cocoa prices are coming down.

In the U.S., annual retail sales of chocolate rose 6.7% in 2025 compared to the prior year, largely because of price increases, according to NIQ data. But the number of individual products sold was down 1.3%, as consumers bought less chocolate overall.

Tariffs on treats

The Trump administration's tariffs were another reason U.S. chocolate prices increased last year.

The administration put a tariff averaging 15% on cocoa-producing countries last February, which raised the price of U.S. cocoa imports, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In November, the administration removed tariffs on cocoa and other commodities that can't be grown in the U.S., including coffee, spices and tropical fruit.

What goes up... may stay up

So far, declining cocoa prices haven't necessarily let chocolate lovers pay less.

Costagli compares the situation to gas prices. Even when the cost of oil goes down, prices at the pump don't immediately follow because companies need to use up the oil they bought at a higher price.

Chocolate makers like The Hershey Co. have long-term contracts that may require them to pay more than current cocoa prices. The market also is volatile; companies know that another bout of poor weather or a surge in demand could make cocoa prices surge again.

But Costagli said companies also watch shoppers' reaction to prices.

Mondelez International, which owns chocolate brands like Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone, raised its prices by 8% globally in 2025 to counter higher cocoa costs.

In Europe, the company hiked prices by even more and saw a significant decrease in the amount of its products sold. As a result, Mondelez lowered prices this year in some markets, including the United Kingdom and Germany.

''We have learned that certain price points are very important, and so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point,'' Mondelez Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put said during a February conference call with investors.

Van de Put said Mondelez didn't plan immediate price cuts in North America, where both its price increases and its sales volume losses were more moderate.

Trading up ... or down

The expanded interest in higher-end chocolate may seem surprising if consumers balked at paying more for a Snickers bar or a pack of Reese's Peanut Butter Cups. But the companies behind super-premium lines like Ferrero Rocher, Justin's and Lindt Excellence were less aggressive about instituting cocoa-related price increases since their products already were more expensive, Costagli said.

As mainstream chocolate makers like Hershey and Mars raised prices, some customers decided they'd just spend a little more, he said.

''It's given the aspirational shopper that little push they need to trade up. If they wanted a better product, if they wanted better experience, better product characteristics, organic, fair trade, whatever it might be,'' Costagli said.

On the flip side, value brands — think Whitman's or some store-brand chocolates — also sold more products in the U.S. last year as price-conscious shoppers traded down from mainstream brands.