College football picks: Hoosiers, fourth among Big Ten teams in playoff rankings, biding their time

One of the nitpicks about the first College Football Playoff rankings was that the committee undervalued Indiana.

The Hoosiers' No. 8 ranking — they're in the same spot in the Associated Press Top 25 poll — puts them fourth among Big Ten teams behind No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State.

If the season ended today, Indiana would be in the 12-team bracket as the No. 9 seed. The Hoosier faithful would argue they merit a higher seed.

Indiana is unbeaten, and the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions each have a loss. The Hoosiers have won all nine of their games by at least 14 points and they've outscored their opponents by a combined 419-123.

The knock against them is their schedule, ranked 103rd strongest by ESPN. They've played no teams in the AP Top 25. Six of their nine opponents went into this week with losing records, one is 4-4 and two are 5-4.

First-year coach Curt Cignetti, in comments before the CFP rankings were released, seemed OK biding his time.

The Hoosiers host Michigan, another of those 5-4 teams, on Saturday. Then, after a week off, they go to Ohio State for what would be one of the season's most anticipated games if they get past the Wolverines.

The picks, with Associated Press poll rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Maryland at No. 1 Oregon (minus 25 1/2)

No one except Ohio State has come within three touchdowns of the Ducks since the first week of September. Maryland is playing a regular-season game on the West Coast for the first time in 15 years.

Pick: Oregon 48-20.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 16 Mississippi (plus 2 1/2)

Pick: Mississippi 31-28.

Purdue at No. 3 Ohio State (minus 37 1/2)

Buckeyes have scored 20 and 21 points in their last two games and are due to break out. They've outscored Purdue 100-38 in two meetings since they were upset in West Lafayette in 2018.

Pick: Ohio State 49-10.

No. 4 Miami (minus 11 1/2) at Georgia Tech

Pick: Miami 33-21.

Florida (plus 21 1/2) at No. 5 Texas

Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway left last week's game against Georgia with a hamstring injury, leaving his status uncertain for his return to his home state. Texas is coming off an open date.

Pick: Texas 35-17.

Washington at No. 6 Penn State (minus 13 1/2)

Pick: Penn State 42-24.

Mississippi State at No. 7 Tennessee (minus 23 1/2)

The Vols' Nico Iamaleava played his best game in weeks against Kentucky, and the stage is set for him to put up some huge numbers against a defense that's allowed SEC opponents to complete 78% of their passes for 318 yards per game.

Pick: Tennessee 38-10.

Michigan (plus 14 1/2) at No. 8 Indiana

Pick: Indiana 30-20.

No. 9 BYU (minus 4) at Utah

Cougars lost nine in a row in this rivalry before winning 26-17 at home last year. They haven't won in Salt Lake City since 2006.

Pick: BYU 27-16.

Florida State at No. 10 Notre Dame (minus 25 1/2)

Pick: Notre Dame 37-10.

No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (plus 3)

These are two teams battling for spots on the playoff bracket. Alabama would be in it now; LSU would be close. Both are coming off open dates. Tigers get the edge in a night game in Death Valley.

Pick: LSU 28-27.

Nevada at No. 12 Boise State (minus 24 1/2)

Pick: Boise State 49-21.

No. 17 Iowa State (minus 3) vs. Kansas

The Cyclones have gotten off to slow starts in their past four games, and it caught up to them last week when Texas Tech handed them their first loss. Kansas has won last two meetings. This one's at Arrowhead Stadium.

Pick: Iowa State 31-24.

No. 18 Army (minus 5 1/2) at North Texas

Pick: Army 42-27.

No. 19 Clemson at Virginia Tech (plus 6 1/2)

The Tigers lost control of their destiny in the ACC with last week's home loss to Louisville. They've won six straight against the Hokies since 2007, but Virginia Tech has proved to be a tough out this season.

Pick: Clemson 28-24.

Utah State at No. 20 Washington State (minus 20 1/2)

Pick: Washington State 45-21.

No. 21 Colorado at Texas Tech (plus 3 1/2)

Buffaloes come out of their open date having won five of six, bowl eligible and in the thick of the Big 12 race. The Red Raiders showed moxie last week, driving for the winning touchdown against Iowa State after losing the lead with just over 2 minutes left.

Pick: Colorado 35-34.

Virginia at No. 23 Pittsburgh (minus 7 1/2)

Pick: Pittsburgh 34-24.

South Carolina (minus 3 1/2) at No. 24 Vanderbilt

Gamecocks are better than their 5-3 record indicates, and they've got momentum from a 24-point win over what was a top-10 Texas A&M team. Vanderbilt plays everybody close.

Pick: South Carolina 27-21.

AP predictions scorecard

Season: Straight-up — 151-39; Against spread — 98-91.

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