Car prices edge higher as more buyers go upscale

DETROIT - Vehicles are fetching record average prices of $30,748, up 6.9 percent from a year ago, but don't blame the automakers.

This is not a case of price gouging. Consumers are choosing more expensive trim levels and options for their new vehicles as a rebounding industry is producing more closely to market demand.

After decades of training customers to wait for the biggest rebate, or cut-rate lease, buyers are coming to terms with a seller's market.

Post-recession, there are fewer dealers in the United States. Most have less inventory on the lot.

Then factor in more available credit for consumers who are finally ready to replace their aging vehicles with more fuel-efficient ones and prices that have found their natural equilibrium.

Average prices will increase in the next few months, level off, and then see small increases again next year, said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends at online research firm TrueCar.com.

In 2005-06, Detroit automakers routinely offered discounts of 15 percent to 20 percent.

The average incentive in March was $2,440, down $43 from a year ago, according to TrueCar. And it fell $36 from February as the trend to keep rebates in check continues.

The consolation is vehicles are holding their residual value better and used car prices have never been higher.

"Consumers are being weaned off incentives, but not voluntarily," said analyst Joe Phillippi of AutoTrends Consulting in Andover, N.J. "Nobody wants to pay retail [sticker price], but now they are being forced to pay close to it."

Consumers are not balking. U.S. auto sales in March ran at a 14.4 million annual sales rate, up from 13.1 million in March 2011.

"Sales do not seem to be artificially inflated," Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson said in a report analyzing the sales data. "Strong sales were not supported by incentives."

In contrast to the surplus of assembly capacity that drove General Motors and Chrysler to seek government support, now most automakers are letting a gradual steady sales recovery determine how much they boost production plans.

The industry took out brands and closed plants so capacity has come down overall, which has kept supplies tight, said Phillippi.

A perfect example: General Motors' decision to shut down production of the Chevrolet Volt for a month rather than adding more incentives to sell down growing inventory, Phillippi said. "GM had the discipline to take down production."

The upside of these actions: GM's vehicles sold in March at an average price of $33,289, 3.4 percent higher than a year earlier, according to TrueCar data. The hot-selling Chevrolet Equinox is selling for an average price of $27,437, up 6.5 percent from a year earlier.