Late October-Like Warmth Wednesady & Thursday
 
As of Tuesday, temps in the Twin Cities were running nearly 5 degrees above average! According to NOAA's CPC, it appears that temps through the end of November will be warmer than average.
 
(Image Credit: @TNelsonWX)

Snow Depth As of Tuesday, November 17th

The Twin Cities picked up 8.3" of snow last week if 2 different snow events. The biggest was 5.5" on Tuesday the 10th, which also set a daily snow record! Interestingly, we've had 7 days with measureable snow at the MSP Airport, 3 of which were daily snowfall records! With that said, there was only Trace of snow left on the ground officially at the MSP Airport.


November Snowfall So Far

Here's how much snow we've had so far this month. Note that the heaviest has been from Sioux Falls, to the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and toward Duluth. Interestingly, these locations are running several inches above average through the first half of November. 


Snowfall So Far This Season

Believe it or not, we've had almost a foot and a half of snow at the MSP Airport this season, which nearly 13 inches above normal so far this season. Interestingly, most locations are above average snowfall for the season so far. 


Snowfall Potential Through 6AM Monday

Here's the snowfall forecast through 6AM Monday, which shows the potential of some snow across parts Iowa and southern Wisconsin.


Warm & Windy Wednesday - Late October Warmth on Thursday

Strong southerly winds will transport above average temperatures into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The good news is that winds should weaken on Thursday, but temps will still be running quite a bit above average.

Rain/Snow Mix This Weekend?

Latest weather trends continue to push our rain/snow chance farther south into Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Parts of far southern MN might get clipped by a little precipitation, but the heaviest and steadiest looks to sail south of the region. 


Wednesday Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

Temps on Wednesday will warm to near 50F in the Twin Cities, which will be nearly +10F above average for mid/late November. Strong winds will be the only concern, which could gust close to 30mph at times through the day.

Wednesday Meteograms for Minneapolis

Here's a look at the Meteograms for Wednesday, which shows temps warming into the 40 by late morning and possibly near 50F by the afternoon. The only fly in the ointment would be the strong southerly winds, gusting up close to 30mph through the afternoon.


Wednesday Weather Outlook

Temps on Wednesday will warm to well above average levels across much of the region. Note that highs may even warm into the 70s across the South Dakota, where temps could be near record levels!


Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will be well above average Wedneseday and Thursday in the Twin Cities, but will settle to near normal levels by the weekend. There could be a few light rain/snow showers on Saturday, but the bulk of the precipitation appears to be south of the Twin Cities. 


Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the temperature outlook through the end of November, which shows temps warming to above average leves through midweek. There appears to be a bit of a cool down this weekend, but the extended out look at we approach Thanksgiving, shows a fairly significant stretch of above average temps. 


 
Drought Update
 
According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions have increased slightly over the last few weeks with nearly 50% of the state considered to be in abnormally dry, while almost 11% is considered to be in a moderate drought.
 

 
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, drier weather should settle in across much of the Central US around Thanksgiving, while wetter weather will move into the Pacific Northwest

8-14 Day Tempearture Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temps will be found across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest. 
_______________________________________________________________________

Breezy Wednesday Ahead. October-Like Warmth
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Believe it or not, we are less than 5 weeks away from the Winter Solstice. Why do I bring this up? Well, not sure about you, but this minimal daylight is for the birds. I am happy to report that on December 22nd, daylight hours will slowly begin to increase! It's a small victory and I'll take anything at this point.

I fear the winter will be a bit dark but recent news of treatments and potential vaccines can't come soon enough. There is light at the end of the tunnel (I hope). I'm still praying extra hard at night.

Our see-saw weather continues this week as we ride the warm wave back to above normal readings. A strong southerly wind will allow mercury levels to flirt with 50 degrees or better across much southern Minnesota again today. Late October-like warmth continues tomorrow with lighter winds, beckoning outdoor work breaks and higher step counts on personal pedometers. Enjoy!

Latest trends bring this weekend's rain/snow chance a little farther south. I’ll shake and consult the Magic 8-Ball again tomorrow. Stay tuned!


Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Warmer with gusty south winds. Winds: S 15-30. High: 49.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, mild and breezy Winds: SSW 5-15. Low: 40.

THURSDAY: Not as breezy. Mild sunshine continues. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 52.

FRIDAY: Clouds thicken. Cooler breeze develops. Winds: NNW 5-15. Wake-up: 36. High: 44.

SATURDAY: Rain/snow mix late in far southern MN. Winds: ENE 5-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 39.

SUNDAY: Lingering AM flakes. More PM sun. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 30. High: 40.

MONDAY: Drier skies. Nothing rough. Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 43.

TUESDAY: Light rain/snow mix possible? Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 44.


This Day in Weather History
November 18th

1994: 58 to 69 mph wind gusts result in isolated damage to structures across south central and southeastern Minnesota. Some of the counties included were Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, and Waseca.

1979: A heat wave continues in Southwest Minnesota. The temperature hits 70 degrees at Browns Valley.


Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 18th

Average High: 40F (Record: 68F set in 1941)
Average Low: 25F (Record: -4F set in 1891)

Record Rainfall: 0.82" set in 1981
Record Snowfall: 7.6" set in 1957


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 18th

Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:41pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 25 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 13 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~ 6 hour & 25 minutes


Moon Phase for November 18th at Midnight
2.9 Before First Quarter Moon


What's in the Night Sky?

"From November 18 to 21, 2020, as darkness falls, use the waxing crescent moon to locate the gas giant planets Jupiter and Saturn, now headed for their once-in-20-years great conjunction on the December 21 solstice. Jupiter is the brighter of these two worlds, outshining Saturn by 12 times. Even so, Saturn is respectably bright, shining as brightly as a 1st-magnitude star. And, of course, in our November 2020 sky, these two worlds – Jupiter and Saturn – are exceedingly noticeable for their nearness to each other. This upcoming Jupiter-Saturn conjunction will be the closest Jupiter-Saturn conjunction since July 16, 1623. These two worlds will be within 6 arc minutes (0.1 or 1/10 degree) of one another on December 21, 2020. A similarly close conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn won’t happen again until March 15, 2080! Look first for Jupiter – brightest starlike object up each evening – and that nearby golden “star” will be the planet Saturn. At present, Jupiter and Saturn lodge about 4 degrees apart from one another on the sky’s dome. For reference, the width of two fingers at an arm length approximates 4 degrees of sky. Day by day, Jupiter is moving closer and closer to Saturn on our sky’s dome now. These two giant worlds will meet for their glorious conjuction on December 21. The last time these two worlds were in conjunction was on May 31, 2000, and after this upcoming conjunction on December 21, 2020, the next time won’t be until November 5, 2040."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

(Image Credit: EarthSky.org)


 
National High Temps Wednesday
 
High temps across the Central US will warm to above average levels once again with record warmth possible for some in the Central and High Plains. Meanwhile, folks along the East Coast will be running well below average, especially in the Northeast.

National Forecast Map For Wednesday

Heavy Pacific precipitation will inundate the Western U.S. with heavy snow possible in the mountains and flooding rains possible closer to the coast. 


Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through midweek, which shows another surge of Pacific moisture moving into the Western US. Areas of heavy rain and mountain snow will be possible, which is great news for some of the drought-stricken areas in the Western US. 


Heavy Precipitation in the Western US

Here's the 7-day preciptation outlook across the nation, which shows several inches of precipitation possible across parts of the Western US. Meanwhile, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible across the Central US and into the Great Lakes.


"'Extraordinary': Iota becomes second category 4 hurricane to strike Central America in past two weeks"

"Hurricane Iota moved ashore Nov. 16 just 15 miles south of the location where Hurricane Eta made landfall Nov. 3. Hurricane Iota roared ashore in northern Nicaragua as a high-end category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 920 mb at 10:40 p.m. EST November 16. Iota is the strongest Atlantic landfalling hurricane so late in the year. The previous record was held by the 1932 Cuba Hurricane, which made landfall on Little Cayman Island with 155 mph winds on November 9, 1932. Iota made landfall 30 miles south of Puerto Cabezas (population 40,000), just 15 miles south of where Hurricane Eta made landfall as a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on November 3. In records going back to 1851, it is unprecedented for two Atlantic category 4 hurricanes to make landfall so close together, just two weeks apart. That they did so in November, when category 4 hurricanes are rare, is truly extraordinary. Only six category 4 or stronger hurricane have ever been recorded in November or December, Eta and Iota in the past two weeks. Here is the very short list of these late-season hurricanes, sorted by highest lifetime wind speed:"

See more from Yale Climate Connections:

(Image credit: Pierre Markuse)


Tropical Update

Iota continues to bring areas of heavy rainfall to parts of Central America. Meanwhile, another tropical wave in the Central Caribbean has a low chance of tropical formation.


No More Regular Alphabet Names

It has been an active season so far as we've used up all 21 names that NOAA's NHC set for the year. Interestingly, Tropical Storm Arthur developed back in mid May, more than 4 months ago! Since then, we've had a total of 9 huricanes!


We're Into the Greek Alphabet - First Time Since 2005

Not only did we use up all 21 names in the list above, but we've entered the Greek Alphabet, which is only the 2nd time in recorded history that we've done that and the first time since 2005. Delta became the 25th named storm and the 9th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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Catastrophic Iota Landfall. Warm Winds Wednesday

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Polar Night? Mild Temps Continue Thursday.