Big Ten men's basketball preview: Will the surprises continue?

There have been some big-time Big Ten shockers already this season. Teams that go by NJIT and Incarnate Word have knocked off conference contenders. But Big Ten play brings a whole new season, starting now.

All 14 teams sneak in one conference game before we flip the calendar to 2015, with newcomer Rutgers and Northwestern getting it started at 11 a.m. Tuesday. Ten weeks later, we will be on the eve of the Big Ten tournament in Chicago.

College basketball writer Amelia Rayno gives her forecast for what will happen in between, and for a conference champion.

Yogi Ferrell, Indiana: The underrated junior point guard is playing his best basketball. In the past three games, the sharpshooter and floor general is averaging 21.3 points to go along with 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. If Indiana is to pick itself off the mat this season, Ferrell — who has taken leaps each year — will be a big part of the movement.

Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin: After pressing pause on his NBA future, the 7-footer returned for his senior year and has his team primed to repeat its Final Four campaign. Kaminsky might be the toughest guy to guard in the Big Ten. A beast in the paint, he can also step out to the three-point line, where he is hitting 42.1 percent of his shots.

Caris LeVert, Michigan: Two years away from being an essentially unknown freshman recruit, the junior guard is now the man charged with pulling the Wolverines out of a sluggish start. At 6-7 with great ballhandling skills, LeVert does a little bit of everything and leads the team in rebounds, assists, steals and free-throw percentage, even as he has struggled to score in the past four games.

D.J. Newbill, Penn State: The Nittany Lions haven't exactly made much noise since the 6-4 senior guard arrived, so it's easy to forget about one of the league's most accomplished scorers. But it isn't wise for opponents to, because Newbill already has shown he's eager to do some damage once more. A strong-starting Penn State will rely on him for everything he's got.

Dez Wells, Maryland: So he's new to the Big Ten, but the ACC is no stranger to Wells' physical presence. The senior returned Saturday following five weeks of recovery because of a fractured wrist, and it's unclear how quickly he will be able to bounce back. But Maryland has been mostly cruising in his absence and if he harnesses the same early scoring spark and perimeter defense that made him stand out, it's scary to think how good the Terrapins could be.

James Blackmon Jr., Indiana: The shooting guard from Marion, Ind., was expected to be a big piece of the Hoosiers' rotation this year, but Blackmon Jr. has been more than that. A smooth shooter with maturity beyond his years, the son of the 1980s Kentucky star is second-best among all freshmen nationally in points per game with 17.9. He scored 26 points in Indiana's victory over Southern Methodist on Nov. 20.

D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State: The highly touted wing has been playing so well that Ohio State media has almost gotten used to it and stopped fawning. Almost. The 6-5 Russell has done it all for the Buckeyes, scoring 17.7 points per game — 5.3 points more than the next man (Marc Loving) on the roster — while collecting 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game.

Melo Trimble, Maryland: Along with forward Jake Layman, the 6-2 point guard has been a big piece of Maryland's early-season Dez-less drive, setting up teammates and scoring 15.8 points a game. He's even getting it done at the line (90 percent, third in the nation) and on the boards, collecting a double-double (14 points and 12 rebounds) against South Carolina Upstate Dec. 13.

Can Michigan snap out of it? We've learned time and again that the nonconference schedule often reveals little about a team's identity. At the same time, bad early losses are not meaningless. The Wolverines already have two of those, having been upset by back-to-back would-be "cupcakes" — New Jersey Institute of Technology and Eastern Michigan — en route to a four-game losing streak this month. Per usual, Michigan is relying on a lot of young players to seize big roles, and that's shown. Can the Wolverines now grow up, and fast, in the rugged Big Ten?

Will Nebraska take the next step? Last year, after being picked last in the Big Ten by writers and coaches, the Cornhuskers used an impressive late surge — winning eight of their last nine conference games — to vault to fourth in the league. Maintaining such momentum isn't easy for a fledgling program, and like last year Nebraska has had some missteps in nonconference play this season, including an ugly home loss to some school named Incarnate Word. The Huskers can't afford the four-game losing streak that kicked off their last go at Big Ten play; they are supposed to be above that now.

Does Maryland run the league in its first year? So far, the next era of Maryland basketball is looking pretty sweet. The Terrapins have a new dynamic point guard, a handful of promising newcomers and apparently some serious growth from last year's 17-15 campaign. Their hot start comes despite a flurry of injuries that would have buckled softer teams. But Mark Turgeon's talented bunch hasn't hit the Big Ten yet. Will a strong nonconference showing that featured victories against Arizona State (neutral court), Iowa State (neutral court) and Oklahoma State (on the road) translate to success in the Terps' new conference?

Can Tom Crean keep his job? Life was not smooth at Indiana this summer when game-changer Noah Vonleh left early for the NBA, three other players transferred and two Hoosiers were at the center of a series of off-court incidents capped by a bizarre night in which one player was run over by a car driven by another. None of that is good coming on the heels of a long 17-15 season, but Crean can probably save his skin with another strong Big Ten season. Wins over SMU, Butler and Pittsburgh forecast a pickup in play, but a home loss to Eastern Washington looked like a whole bunch of the same.

Wisconsin Last year's Final Four team is back for more, and once again it's hard to bet against coach Bo Ryan's Badgers, who tied for second in the conference a year ago. Wisconsin has brought back every notable player except for guard Ben Brust and boasts the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year in versatile center Frank Kaminsky. Much like last year, the Badgers have been extremely efficient on both sides of the ball. Their only loss this season was to another Final Four favorite.

19-29 The Big Ten's record in games vs. teams from the other five top conferences — Big East, ACC, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12.
10 Upsets in home games in "guarantee games" this nonconference season, against teams from mid- to low-major conferences.

Kentucky: The Wildcats were preseason No. 1 and haven't skipped a beat.

Duke: Three dynamic freshmen look anything but their age.

Iowa State: Don't look now, but Fred Hoiberg's high-flying, high-scoring Cyclones are rolling.