AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the New Jersey primary

WASHINGTON — Nearly a dozen candidates will compete in New Jersey on Tuesday for the chance to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Voters will also pick nominees for the state General Assembly.

New Jersey is one of only two states, along with Virginia, with a gubernatorial race on the ballot this year. Historically, presidential politics has cast a long shadow over the two contests, with the president's party frequently losing one or both seats. Although Democrats have long dominated New Jersey's federal offices as well as the state Legislature, the governor's office has changed hands regularly between the two major political parties for most of the last century. The last time a party held the governorship for more than two consecutive terms was in 1961.

The race for the Democratic nomination for governor features a crowded field of prominent current and former officeholders: U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

Gottheimer has had a slight edge in fundraising, with about $9.1 million in contributions, followed by Sherrill and Fulop, each with about $8.9 million raised for their campaigns.

Immigration has been a major issue in the campaign. In May, the state's top federal prosecutor dropped a trespassing case against Baraka, who was arrested earlier in the month at a protest outside a new federal immigration detention center.

In the Republican primary, former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli makes his third attempt for the state's highest office. He had a strong showing as the 2021 Republican nominee against Murphy, coming within about 3 percentage points of unseating the Democratic incumbent. He also ran in 2017 but lost the nomination to then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno.

Also seeking the Republican nomination Tuesday are state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, talk radio host Bill Spadea and general contractor Justin Barbera.

The state's most populous counties — Bergen, Middlesex, Essex and Hudson — tend to play a larger role in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries. For example, Essex County, which is home to heavily Democratic Newark, had the largest turnout in the last competitive Democratic primary for governor in 2017, but it did not crack the top 15 counties in the last competitive Republican primary in 2021. That year, Ciattarelli received just shy of a majority of the Republican primary vote. He was the top vote-getter in all 21 counties and nearly doubled the vote count of his nearest competitor. The counties that contributed the most Republican primary votes that year were Ocean, Morris and Monmouth.

Further down the ballot, all 80 state General Assembly seats are up for election this year, although only 25 districts face contested races. Primary voters may select up to two candidates per district, and each race will have two winners. Democrats have a lopsided majority in the chamber.

State Senate seats will not be up for election until 2027. Some voters in Bergen and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey will pick nominees for a special state Senate election in District 35, although neither the Democratic nor Republican primary is contested. Democrats also have a decisive majority in the state Senate.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are very rare in New Jersey. The state does not have automatic recounts, but candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Primary day

New Jersey's state primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What's on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the primaries for governor, state General Assembly and the uncontested special primaries in state Senate District 35.

Who gets to vote?

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Sunday, there were about 6.6 million registered voters in New Jersey. Of those, 37% were Democrats, or about 2.4 million voters, and about 25% were Republicans, or 1.6 million voters. An additional 2.4 million voters were not affiliated with any party.

In the 2021 primaries for governor, overall turnout was about 6% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and about 5% in the Republican primary. Nearly 383,000 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary and about 339,000 in the Republican primary.

Ballots cast before primary day in 2021 made up about 38% of the total vote in the Democratic primary and 19% in the Republican primary. In the state primary two years later, 55% of the Democratic primary vote and 29% of the Republican primary vote was cast before Election Day.

As of Thursday morning, more than 248,000 Democratic primary ballots and more than 91,000 Republican primary ballots had been cast before primary day.

In the 2024 presidential election in New Jersey, the first results the AP reported came from Hudson County at 8:01 p.m. ET, one minute after polls closed. Vote tabulation ended for the night at 4:21 a.m. ET in Burlington County with about 95% of votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 147 days until the November general election.

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