Past history indicates that the groundhog sees its shadow more than 80% of the time. When you really think about it, why should things be any different? I have a feeling that a good number of those shadow sightings over the years were caused by artificial lightning.

Maybe the whole process needs to be thought through again. Perhaps, more weight should be given to a thick overcast which under normal circumstances would not let the groundhog see a shadow.

So what do I think the groundhog will see early Tuesday? I'm betting heavy on the shadow and six more weeks of winter.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.