After an ugly win over the Jaguars last weekend, the Vikings must keep it going Sunday against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. They will get a lift from the return of Adrian Peterson, who is expected to play for the first time since late September. Prediction: Vikings 24, Colts 13

Three big story lines

‘All Day’ returns

Peterson said Friday that he will suit up, though it is unclear how much the 31-year-old running back will play. At the very least, he should help the Vikings punch the ball into the end zone near the goal line.

Shorthanded again 

The Vikings will be without three starters as safety Harrison Smith, cornerback Trae Waynes and right guard Brandon Fusco are out. But Joe Berger is back from his concussion and will start at center or guard.

Not their lucky day 

The Vikings have yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season, but they haven’t played many passers as dangerous as Luck. The former top pick can make all the throws and is a threat to scramble, too.

Two key matchups

CB Captain Munnerlyn vs. Colts WR T.Y. Hilton

While the Colts use Hilton all over the field, he figures to match up often with Munnerlyn in the slot. He is one of the NFL’s premier deep threats, even out of the slot, but the Vikings haven’t been beaten deep often this season.

QB Sam Bradford vs. Colts FS Mike Adams

The Colts lack playmakers on defense, but one guy to watch is Adams, who has 24 career interceptions. Bradford, who will start despite a shoulder injury, will have to steer clear of Adams in the middle of the field.

One stat that matters

Different offensive line combinations used by the Vikings this season after Sunday.

The Vikings will win if …

They bottle up running back Frank Gore on early downs and trap Luck inside the pocket on third downs, and if Peterson looks like the guy we saw in 2015.

The COLTS will win if 

Luck hits on at least one deep shot to Hilton and scrambles for a couple of first downs, and the Vikings offense is out of sync as it attempts to reintegrate Peterson.

Vensel’s win probability