A weak Big Ten could hurt Gophers

The Big Ten wasn't supposed to struggle like this — at least not based on early projections.

Go back and look at the preseason Top 25 — Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern were all ranked. And Maryland, Michigan and Wisconsin received several votes. Those seven teams mentioned in that poll tied the ACC for the most among the six major conferences. The four ranked teams were second highest only to the ACC's five.

That's seven Big Ten teams with what appeared to be realistic expectations to be in the mix for the NCAA tournament. That no longer seems to be the case.

In fact, it's nearly the opposite.

"Big Ten teams took a beating early on," Big Ten Network analyst Stephen Bardo said. "That's why a lot of prognosticators have been talking bad about the Big Ten now."

The Big Ten would be lucky to get a handful of teams into March Madness based on midseason projections. And, really, Michigan State and Purdue are the only two apparent locks for an NCAA tourney bid as conference play resumed this week.

The No. 1 Spartans and No. 13 Boilermakers were the only two ranked teams from the Big Ten in the first Associated Press poll of the new year. Since the poll expanded from the top 20 to the top 25 teams in 1990, only once have there been just two ranked Big Ten teams in the first Top 25 of the new year: in 2007, with No. 4 Wisconsin and No. 6 Ohio State.

The Gophers were thought to be the third-best Big Ten team this season, earning a Top 25 ranking for the first five weeks. But that idea is being challenged by some experts now, because of their poor Rating Percentage Index (RPI), No. 57, and strength of schedule (SOS), No. 134 as of Thursday. It's not getting any better even with winning.

The Gophers picked up a 10-point victory over Illinois on Wednesday night to improve to 2-1 in the Big Ten. Another winnable home game is coming Saturday against Indiana. But just playing the Hoosiers might actually hurt them.

ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi dropped the Gophers out of his updated NCAA tournament bracket Thursday. They went from a projected No. 11 seed Dec. 28 to one of Lunardi's "first four teams out" despite a fifth consecutive victory Wednesday.

The Gophers and everyone else under them in the Big Ten with hopes of making the Big Dance — particularly Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State — really can't afford losses to middle-of-the-pack (or below) league opponents: Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers have current RPIs from 90-180.

Minnesota will need quality wins, which unfortunately for the Gophers will be scarce in the Big Ten this year.

Marcus Fuller's rankings, with five teams to watch:

1. Michigan State (15-1): The Spartans entered the new year as the top-ranked team in the nation for the first time since 2002.

2. Purdue (14-2): Coach Matt Painter is already talking about his Boilermakers having Final Four potential after 10 consecutive victories.

3. Gophers (13-3): Nate Mason's return from an ankle injury restored the starting five, but that was before news of Reggie Lynch's pending suspension emerged.

4. Michigan (13-3)

6. Maryland (13-4)

7. Nebraska (11-5)

8. Northwestern (10-6): The Wildcats dodged a bullet with senior point guard Bryant McIntosh avoiding a season-ending knee injury, but how long is he sidelined?

9. Penn State (11-5)

10. Illinois (10-6)

12. Wisconsin (9-7)

13. Iowa (9-8): The Hawkeyes lost at home again Thursday, dropping to 0-4 to start Big Ten play for the first time since Fran McCaffery's first season in 2010-11.

14. Rutgers (10-6)

PLAYER TO WATCH

Markus Howard, G, Marquette

Game of the weekend

(7) Oklahoma at (6) West Virginia

6:15 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2: If you haven't heard of Oklahoma freshman sensation Trae Young, I invite you to check out the college version of Steph Curry. You won't regret it. The 6-2, 180-pound guard leads the nation with an absurd 29.4 points and 10.6 assists per game.

Final thought

C'mon, Big Ten, wake up