My winter outlook hasn't changed. "Colder with some snow." Take it to the bank. When in doubt, talk fast, wave your arms and deal in vague generalities. The truth: If I could deliver a consistently accurate three- to six-month forecast, I'd be sipping umbrella drinks on my own personal island. Buyer beware.

NOAA just came out with its prediction for December through February. Based on a powerful El Niño warming of the Pacific, changes in the Arctic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the forecast for Minnesota and Wisconsin calls for milder and slightly drier than average weather. That's consistent with previous El Niño events, but every warming phase is different. That said, I think (I hope) we won't be tracking a persistent polar vortex this winter.

Today feels like October as the jackets come out. Clear skies and light winds set the stage for a hard freeze tonight in the suburbs: a few hours below 28 degrees — cold enough to kill off most plant life, including ragweed.

Plan on a sunny weekend; 70s return Monday.