Is the ongoing pandemic impacting weather forecasts? Surprisingly, the answer may be yes.
Data from commercial aircraft (AMDAR) seeds the weather models meteorologists use to predict the state of the atmosphere. ECMWF says fewer flights may degrade upper air wind and temperature forecasts by 15%, with a "statistically significant" 3% impact on surface pressure forecasts. Satellite data can fill in many of the gaps, but wind forecasts are more dependent on high-flying aircraft, many of which are now grounded.
The best chance of a shower today comes over far southern Minnesota. After a damp but dry Friday, a major storm tracks from Denver to Des Moines to La Crosse, Wis., by Saturday. Enough warm air gets tangled up into the storm's circulation for rain in the Twin Cities metro, but cold exhaust at the tail end of the storm Saturday night may leave behind a few slushy inches from Alexandria to Brainerd and Duluth.
Conditions improve Sunday, with a welcome surge of 50s next week. This too shall pass.
