1. Twins Quarter Season Report Card: May 21 Your Voices lead paragraph
    The grand poobah of baseball prognosticators, Nate Silver of BaseballProspectus, predicted 79 wins for the Twins before the season started.Currently, after losing for a sixth consecutive game Wednesday night,the Twins have a slightly above eight percent chance to make thepostseason based on the minute by minute baseballprospectus.com playoffodds report. It's a math equation that would make Will Hunting and JohnNash blush, but the site has been deadly accurate for some time. Aquarter of the season through, with five more home games than roadgames played, let's ponder whether Silver's forecast will come tofruition.
    Following a loss to the White Sox, the Twins were 18-23, a season-low five games under .500. Since then, the Twins are 25-17 and a season-high three games over .500. Baseball Prospectus now says the Twins have a 41.1 percent chance to make the postseason, while the only other teams that matter in the division, Detroit (32.7 percent) and Chicago (27.7 percent), come in considerably lower.
    Since many variables come into play in the postseason (health, regular rotation set?, play down the stretch), it's too early to buy into the theory that the Twins stand no chance against Boston, New York, or Los Angeles in a five or seven game series.
    The Twins have been inconsistent, or consistent, depending on how you see it. They've yet to win more than four games in a row, and seemingly, fluctuated between one game under .500 and one game over .500 for weeks before their recent semi-hot streak.
    Game No. 81 came and went Friday night. Halfway through the season, let's look at reasons why the Twins can't overtake Detroit for first and reasons why they might in the near future.
    Reasons why the Twins still trail Detroit, who's been in first since May 10:
    While Mauer&Morneau continue to amaze, the offense is below average - They both were absurdly wonderful in May, yet the Twins finished with a record below .500. They've scored two runs or less in 25 games. Their record in those games: 3-22. General manager Bill Smith is on record, saying he's looking at adding a reliever. Trading for another bat - we recommend 2B Freddy Sanchez (Pirates) - would be a good idea.
  2. The black hole known as second base - Collectively, Twins' second basemen rank last in just about every offensive category in the American League. The good news: Smith, even if financially challenged, can come up with a cheap alternative. David Eckstein (Padres) is due just roughly $400,000 for the rest of the season. A slightly more expensive, but very affordable option, is Felipe Lopez (Diamondbacks). He's due roughly $1.5 million for the rest of the season. A move easily could be made.
  3. A shaky bullpen at the start of the season - Adding Matt Capps and or John Grabow from Pittsburgh would be enticing, but the pen has been a lot better from mid-May on. However, the first six weeks of the season was a wild ride and from August 4 through the end of last year, the pen was responsible for 14 losses. In other words, the small sample size of the last six weeks doesn't trump a good portion of last year and the start of this one. A longer period with Jose Mijares this year helps, but not a lot. Having Jesse Crain in Rochester does help the cause. It's an area of concern that could be solved with one transaction: Alexi Casilla, Brian Duensing, Cole Devries or Jay Rainville,&a low-level pitcher to Pittsburgh for Sanchez & Capps.
  4. An average rotation until late May - Heading into the season, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano were viewed as 1-2 or 1-3 in the rotation. Well, it took Baker a few starts to find his groove, and until recently, Liriano was far from being the F-Bomb. Lately, the rotation from 1-5 is living up to its perception that it trumps all in the division. Detroit is by far the strongest at the top, but their back end has issues.
  5. Where in the World is...Joe Crede...25 percent of the time? - The knock on Crede in the offseason was his inability to stay healthy while dealing with a troublesome back. Well, not only has his back been an issue at times, but so has almost every other body part. When healthy, he's been a nice addition. When unable to play, Brian Buscher's 96 at-bats have been a waste.
  6. Reasons other than Mauer & Morneau why the Twins are going back to the playoffs for the fifth time this decade:
    Favorable schedule - They have 24 games remaining against Cleveland & Kansas City. Detroit also has 24. Chicago though has just 15. Detroit & Chicago both have more remaining games against New York and Boston, the two best teams in the league.
  7. Delmon Young might be more than another Butch Huskey - Michael Rand passes along these numbers: Since June 9, he's 21-for-63 (.333) with 2 HRs, 5 doubles, 11 RBIs, and seven multi-hit games. Maybe his mind is at ease after mourning the loss of his mom earlier this season.
  8. No June swoon for two guys is encouraging - Matt Guerrier's June ERA: 0.86. RA Dickey's June ERA: 0.67. Guerrier appears to be more than a serviceable eighth inning option after his implosion late last year.
  9. Joe Nathan remains on top of his game - June numbers: In 11.2 innings (12 games), he gave up no runs and only four hits while walking just one. His greatness is sometimes lost among Mauer and Morneau's presence. I take back the sort-of negative words I typed about Nathan in mid-May.
  10. Jason Kubel continues to go the right way - He was the best offensive player in June. His overall numbers look fabulous. He's on pace to hit .304 with 28 homers for the season. If only he could hit lefties...
  11. Belief in Smith - Yes, I did just type that. I've thought for some time that he will make a significant trade before the July 31 non-waiver deadline...and I still believe that.
  12. Rotation is trending upward - Baker, Liriano, & Nick Blackburn have been great for weeks. Glen Perkins/Kevin Slowey/Anthony Swarzak have been fine for a good stretch. It's the top-to-bottom rotation that can be trusted the most in the division.

Final thoughts:
Detroit has more home games remaining, but have just one regular player hitting above .275. Brandon Inge is great, but can he stay healthy? Chicago, not Detroit, is the team to worry about. GM Kenny Williams is a lock to make a deal before the deadline. Plus, Carlos Quentin should be back for the final two months. They've won 11 of their last 14 and are second in the AL in ERA. Benefiting the Twins - they get Chicago nine more times at the Metrodome, only three more times at US Cellular.