Frost Advisory Tonight
"It will feel more like March today than mid May with wind chill readings in the 30s for much of the day. The rain should end by early evening with a clearing sky. Frost will become likely later tonight with light winds and temperatures dropping to the low and mid 30s by Monday morning. Be sure and protect any plants you may have set out in the garden."

Soggy Sunday
Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which shows fairly soggy conditions continuting across the region. Note that this model is even hinting at a little snow late Sunday into early Monday closer to the western tip of Lake Superior. Yuk!

Precipitation Outlook Sunday
Here's the precipitation outlook through Sunday, which shows fairly widespread precipitation from eastern MN into much of Wisconsin. Note that some spots could see 1" to 2" of rainfall, which will only add to what has been the 10th wettest start to 2019 here at MSP. 

Wet Week Ahead
We have more rain in the forecast this week and it could be fairly impressive. In fact, according to NOAA's WPC, there could be some 1" to nearly 3" tallies across the region. This certainly has been a cool and wet start to May, which looks like it will continue here this week. 

May Precipitation So Far...
The MSP Airport has seen more than 3" of precipitation so far this May, which is more than 1" above average for the month so far. However, we're no where near the top 5 wettest Mays on record. The wettest was back in 1906 when 10.33" fell. 

"Photos: Spooky ‘Flying Saucer’ Shelf Cloud Spotted Over Wisconsin"
"Imagine waking up to this: Residents of Madison, Wisconsin were greeted by a sinister-looking “flying saucer” shelf cloud formation as thunderstorms rolled through the state Thursday morning. The dark, multilayered, wedge-shaped clouds — resembling massive flying saucers — are known as shelf clouds or “shelfies,” which are common in thunderstorms, according to the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang. Shelf clouds often form at the leading edge of a gust front or outflow boundary from a thunderstorm, or strong winds flowing outward from a storm. The outer part of a shelf cloud is often smoother with a notable rising motion exhibited by a tiered look (hence, the name shelf cloud)"

"Earth just had its second-hottest April on record"

"The globe just experienced its second-warmest April since reliable instrument data began in 1880, according to NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency. Why it matters: The unusually warm April follows a top 3 hottest March, and indicates that the Earth is headed for yet another top 3 warmest year on record. This follows recent news that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere edged past 415 parts per million for the first time in human history, likely becoming the highest level on record in at least 3 million years. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for energy and chopping down forests, are causing carbon dioxide levels to increase at a quickening pace. Details: According to NASA, April saw a global temperature anomaly of 0.99ºC, or 1.8ºF, above the 20th century average. This was cooler than only April 2016, when a powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean helped add to a natural boost in global temperatures that were already elevated due to human-caused climate change. Right now, a weak El Niño event, featuring unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean along with an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity near the equator, is helping to add additional heat to the atmosphere. The Arctic, including Greenland and Siberia, was particularly mild during April, and the Greenland melt season got off to an especially early start."

See more from Axios HERE:


10th Wettest Start at MSP on Record - Through May 18th

If you're keeping track, MSP has seend 12.01" of liquid precipitation since January 1st, which is the 10th wettest start to any year on record. The only other years (since 2000) that started off wetter were in 2001 and 2014. The wettest start was back in 1965 when we had 15.07" of liquid. 

Sunday Weather Outlook

Come on man! This is ridiculous... High temps on Sunday will only warm into the 40s across much of the state, which will be nearly -30F below average. There will also be fairly steady rain showers and perhaps a few imbedded rumbles of thunder across the southern part of the state. Sunday will not be a nice day for May standards... ugh!
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature outlook through the early part of June, which suggest chilly temps on Sunday, but we do warm up quite a bit as we head into the week ahead. In fact, temps will warm into the 60s and 70s once again, which will be closer to where we should be at this time of the year!
Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from May 26th - June 1st still looks to be running below average across much of the Western US and into Minnesota. The only locations that will be above average look to be across the Southeastern part of the nation and into Alaska.
Spring Leaf Anomaly
Here's an interesting map for folks that are looking forward to spring. It's the NPN Spring Leaf Anomaly map, which shows that spring has indeed sprung across the southern tier of the nation. The red colors indicate that spring leaves are actually emerging earlier than average in those areas, while blue colors indicate that we're a little behind average in other spots.

"May 13th, 2019 - Spring leaf out is nearly complete across the Continental U.S. and has just arrived in parts of Alaska. In the west, spring leaf out is 1-2 weeks early in parts of California and Nevada, and 2-3 weeks late in much of Oregon and Washington. In the east, spring leaf out is 1-2 weeks early in the upper Southeast, and 1-2 weeks late across the Great Plains, southern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Spring bloom has arrived on time to 2 weeks early in much of the South, Appalachian Mountains, and mid-Atlantic. Parts of Arizona, California, Nevada, and the Southern Great Plains are 1-2 weeks late. Spring bloom is 9 days late in the Chicago area and 2 days late in Boston."

Your Drip Dries May Be Drooping Today
By Paul Douglas
The weekend forecast called for wet; after a 'thundiferous' start, Saturday turned out a bit nicer than expected, while today will be wetter, with over an inch of rain for many towns.
Meteorologists read the tea leaves, trying to tease out the signal from the noise. Does a cool, wet spring imply a cool, wet summer is imminent? Nothing is ever definite, but Dr. Mark Seeley reports 2 out of 3 days this spring have been cooler than average. His read: a cooler spring is most often a precursor to a cooler summer. Again, nothing is guaranteed, except sunset and taxes.
A cold soaking will keep most of us indoors today. If you're upset about the arc of Season 8 on Game of Thrones, consider this: it may be cold enough for a couple inches of slush from St. Cloud to Duluth by tonight. Are we SURE they really killed off the White Walkers?
We dry out Monday, before the next storm Tuesday. Warmer air arrives midweek, with a T-storm late Thursday giving way to sunny skies Friday and Saturday. A T-storm may pop Sunday and Memorial  Day.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Heavy rain, slush north. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 38. High: 44.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Chance of T-showers. Winds: SSW 5. Low: 49.

MONDAY: Another PM wave of T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 62 High: 79.

TUESDAY: Some sun. Stay T-shower. Winds: S 7-12. High: 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: E 5-10. High: 73.

THURSDAY: Early T-storms, then sticky sun. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Hazy sun. Isolated T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: 81.

SATURDAY: Muggy and warm. Few T-storms. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.


This Day in Weather History
May 19th

1975: Strong winds cause over 2 million dollars of damage across Fridley, Mounds View and New Brighton.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 19th

Average High: 70F (Record: 97F set in 2009)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 33F set in 1951)

Record Rainfall: 2.25" set in 2014
Record Snowfall: 0.2" set in 1971

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 19th

Sunrise: 5:39am
Sunset: 8:40pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 2 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 22 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~6 hours and 17 minutes

Moon Phase for May 14th at Midnight
1.4 Days After Full "Flower" 

See more from Space HERE:


What's in the Night Sky?

According to this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:  

"Looking for the moon on May 19 and 20, 2019? It’s past full and so rises after sunset, about an hour after for May 19, and some two hours after on May 20. It’s a waning gibbous moon and, on these nights, it’s paired with the bright planet Jupiter. You’ll easily see the moon and Jupiter by mid-evening from around the globe (midway between your local sunset and local midnight). The moon and the king planet rank as the second-brightest and fourth-brightest heavenly bodies to light up the sky, respectively, after the sun and planet Venus. That reddish, twinkly star near the moon and Jupiter is Antares, the brightest star in the constellation Scorpius the Scorpion. Although Antares serves as a prime example of a 1st-magnitude star, it pales next to Jupiter. which outshines Antares by nearly 30 times. By the way, that 3rd-brightest heavenly body – Venus – is nowhere to be found in the evening sky, so there’s no way to mistake Venus for Jupiter – or vice versa. Venus can only be seen in the morning sky, very low in the eastern sky before sunrise from Northern Hemisphere locations, a bit higher as seen from Earth’s Southern Hemisphere."

Average Tornadoes By State in May
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in May is at its peak across the country with most happening in the Tornado Valley. Note that Minnesota sees an average of 6 tornadoes during the month.
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows a fairly high concentration across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast States. Note that we have not seen any tornadoes this year in Minnesota. Last year, our first tornado didn't happen until the end of May. However, in 2017, our first tornadoes happened in early March!
 2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through May 8th suggests that there have been a total of 642, which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 632. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2012, when nearly 684 tornadoes were reported. Interestingly, more than 1,000 tornades were reported at this time in 2011.
Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the early part of the week ahead, which suggest active weather continuing across the nation. Our current system will move east with widespread showers and storms and another storm system will move in across the western half of the country with more widespread moisture. More snow will fall across the Mountains, while strong to severe storms will develop across the middle part of the country.

Severe Threat Monday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Moderate Risk of severe storms across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on Monday. This area will be under the gun for fairly widespread severe storms, which could include large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes! Stay tuned!

7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, there is a fairly heavy swath of precipitation that will set up across the Central US with several inches of liquid possible over the next 7 days. Note that some of this heavy moisture could fall across the Upper Midwest and even into Minnesota.

2019 hurricane names: Is your name on the list?"
"Having your name associated with a tropical storm has a cool factor. Unless, of course, the storm had devastating effects. Take the monster and fatal storms of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: Hurricanes Florence, with millions of damage in the Carolinas, and Michael, which destroyed parts of the Florida Panhandle when it made landfall. In recent years, Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate were retired from hurricane naming circulation because of their devastation – Harvey in Texas, Irma in Florida, Maria in Puerto Rico and Nate in the Gulf Coast. In April, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Sciences predicted 13 named storms and five hurricanes, two of which would strengthen into major hurricanes. That's a slightly less active season than typically seen from 1981-2010."

"Researchers deploy drones, hurricane hunter to uncover tornado formation secrets"
"With a multiday severe weather outbreak poised to strike the central U.S., an armada of weather researchers is heading into the Plains. Their mission: to solve some of the elusive mysteries of tornado formation. Why it matters: Scientists know what to look for on Doppler radar imagery to detect tornadoes, and the National Weather Service warns people with an average lead time of about 15 minutes. However, meteorologists have not overcome the hurdle of determining why one storm produces a tornado while another identical-looking storm does not, which is needed to improve the false alarm rate. The backdrop: Using data from past storm experiments, researchers suspect that the low-level environment near and inside particular quadrants of a supercell is critical to generating and maintaining a tornado. In particular, researchers want to know more about the forward flank of a storm. However, until recently, gathering in situ data just above the surface in this part of a supercell has been nearly impossible."

"A Quarter of West Antarctica's Ice Is Now Unstable, Study Finds"
"Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but the ice is screwed. New findings released on Thursday reveal that a quarter of the ice sheets in West Antarctica, the most vulnerable part of the continent, have destabilized. Ice loss has sped up fivefold across the region’s most imperiled glaciers in just 25 years. Scientists used 800 million satellite measurements taken since 1992 to reach their conclusions. The results, published in Geophysical Research Letters, underscore just how rapid the changes taking place are and the perils coastal communities could face if ice continues its runaway melt. The ways that we know the West Antarctic is melting down are manifold. There’s measurements on the ground, flyovers by NASA scientists, and occasional visits by boat. But to get the big picture, satellites provide a crucial view from space. Researchers used data from a suite of European Space Agency satellites that have been monitoring Antarctica since 1992. Those satellite have lasers that measure how high the ice that covers Antarctica and extends out to sea is, and the 25 years of records in the analysis allowed the researchers to see how ice height has changed over time. The researchers identified areas where rapid thinning and ice loss occurred as unstable."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Super-Soaker: NOAA Model Predicts 2-4" Rain by Sunday Evening

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A break in the rain Monday with warmer temperatures this week