By Todd Nelson
Ahhh... Thursday's sunshine was refreshing, wasn't it? Cloudy, more Seattle-like weather will return over the next several days as a Pacific storm barrels through the mid-section of the nation. Any morning sunshine that we see today will quickly fade as warmer air surges over colder air near the surface. The process (warm air advection) will eventually lead to a few sprinkles or light rain showers late Friday into early Saturday. There is also a growing thunder potential for folks in the southeastern corner of the state during the overnight hours on Saturday. Don't be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder in the Twin Cities before the cold front blasts through early Sunday.
If your travel plans take you northwest this weekend, you may want to make a plan B. Blizzard-like weather conditions may unfold across parts of North Dakota (north of I-94) as nearly of foot of snow blankets the area. The far northwestern reaches of Minnesota could even get in on a little shoveling by then.
At this point, a shovelable snow across the heart of the Twin Cities is NOT looking likely by the 72nd anniversary of the great Armistice Day Blizzard. -Todd Nelson
Todd's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota (and western Wisconsin too):
FRIDAY: Turning breezy. Clouds thicken, drizzle/light rain possible late? High 51.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and breezy with a little light rain. Low: 42.
SATURDAY: Light rain in the morning with a wintry mix lifting through northern MN. Spotty showers possible later with a growing overnight thunder potential across far southeastern MN. High 60. Low 40.
SUNDAY: Breezy and much cooler! Chance of a little wintry mix in the morning, then a few flurries possible in the afternoon, especially across far northern MN. High 39. Low 22.
MONDAY: Jacket worthy. Coldest day since early March? Lingering clouds and flurries, mainly north. Increasing sunshine late. High: 31. Low: 21.
TUESDAY: Chilly sunshine, feeling like late November. High: 37. Low: 25.
WEDNESDAY: More sun, back to average temps. High: 43. Low: 32.
THURSDAY: A little warmer. High: 48. Low: 30.
The recent Nor’Easter brought wild weather back to coastal communities on Wednesday and Thursday only a week after the record Superstorm Sandy. Weary Northeasterners woke up to shovelable/plowable snow on Thursday as Atlantic moisture wrapped into a cold pool of air lurking near the coast. Thanks to Castaldo Buccola for the picture below from Valley Stream, NY.
Laundry List of Snow Reports
Thanks to the National Weather Service out of New York, NY for the information below:
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
11.5″ – MONROE
13.5″ – CLINTONVILLE
12.0″ – HAMDEN
12.0″ – NORTH HAVEN
10.8″ – MERIDEN
10.0″ – WALLINGFORD
6.2″ – NEWARK AIRPORT
2.5″ – BRONX
4.7″ – CENTRAL PARK
1.1″ – NYC/LA GUARDIA
4.0″ – ISLIP AIRPORT
Snow From Superstorm Sandy
Interestingly, you can still see some of the snow on the ground (via satellite) from Superstorm Sandy across parts of WV.
Northeast Snowfall Analysis
This is a look at the snowfall analysis from the latest Nor’Easter. These are the types of storms that give meteorologists headaches. Any deviation in the track of the low could mean heavier/less snow for thousands/millions of people. The impacts can be widespread or barely visible. This time around, the heavier snow fell just along the coast and is visible here in the snowfall analysis map below.
Nor’Easter Fades, Cleanup Continues
“Still navigating the harrowing destruction of Superstorm Sandy, much of the Northeast was hunkering down for a nor’easter barreling up the East Coast, ushering in snow, sleet, rain, strong winds and cold temperatures through Thursday. National Weather Service forecasters say the storm doesn’t have the destructive power of Sandy â?? which killed more than 110 in the U.S., cut power to 8.5 million homes and flooded the New York metropolitan area and New Jersey coast. But it’s still dangerous, threatening potential storm surges to coastal areas recovering from Sandy’s flooding onslaught. Nearly 60,000 customers in New York and New Jersey who lost power because of Sandy lost it all over again with the nor’easter, utility companies told the Associated Press. Con Ed, which serves New York City, said the storm knocked out power to at least 11,000 customers Wednesday evening. Tens of thousands more were likely to lose power overnight.”
(Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Northeast Snowfall Records
Here are some of the snowfall records from Wednesday.
The following are the daily snowfall records set on Wednesday with the previous record in parenthesis:
–Newark, N.J.: 5.7 inches (trace from 1981)
–Bridgeport, Conn.: 5.4 inches (2.0 inches from 1953)
–Worcester, Mass.: 5.2 inches (1.4 inches from 1953)
–New York City’s Central Park: 4.3 inches (0.1 of an inch from 1878)
–New York City’s John F. Kennedy Airport: 4.0 inches (first occurrence of snow on November 7)
–Hartford, Conn.: 3.4 inches (0.2 of an inch from 1953)
–Atlantic City, N.J.: 2.5 inches (2.0 inches from 1953)
–Islip, N.Y.: 1.7 inches (first occurrence of snow on November 7)
–Providence, R.I.: 1.3 inches (trace from 2010)
–New York City’s LaGuardia Airport: 1.1 inches (first occurrence of snow on November 7)
–Bangor, Maine: 0.3 of an inch (trace from 2002)
Thanks to @abbydodge for the picture below out of Southport, CT:
Nor’Easter on Satellite
Thanks to the National Weather Service from New York, NY for this satellite picture of our latest storm. It’s almost as if this created an eye!
Impressive satellite picture from 12pm Thursday of the coastal storm that impacted us. The center is currently spinning right near Nantucket, MA! Also, here is a link to our latest Storm Total Snowfall and Peak Wind gusts.
Another Major Storm Developing
Weather maps look fairly active through the weekend ahead. This time, weather will sour for folks out west rather than in the northeast. A large Pacific storm is moving inland with copious amounts of moisture and wind. The problem here is that a chunk of modified Arctic air is heading south as well, which means several inches of snow for folks in the High Plains and mountainous areas. The image below shows the storm on water vapor satellite. The big circular ball is the large storm that will be making headlines across the nation into early next week.
The Pacific storm is prompting several high wind and heavy snow headlines from California to Minnesota. Take a look at all of the active watches/warnings/advisories that are in place.
This is a look at the RPM model solution through AM Sunday. Note the significant heavy snow swath that sets up from the Intermountain-west locations into the far northwestern reaches of Minnesota.
A Closer Look…
This is a little closer view of the snow potential. The RPM model shows several bands of 8″ to 12″ from Montana to NW Minnesota.
Visualize the Data
This is a meteogram from far NW North Dakota, which shows several different model solutions over the next several days. The lines represent each individual model solution and their suggestion to snowfall accumulation. Note that most peak around Sunday around or over that 12″ mark! Models have been fairly consistent on their generous snowfall forecasts, so that gives us confidence on these more specific forecasts. Get your shovels ready!
Cold Air Surges South
Another side to this storm will be the cold air after the frontal passage. Look at forecast high temperatures for Monday, November 12th. These numbers will be well below average for many locations!
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week!
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