Here are the latest GFS and ECMWF model outputs for snowfall through AM Saturday. Both models show the heaviest band setting up northwest of the Twin Cities with some 12"+ tallies possible across Central MN. Note that these models also suggest that the Twin Cities will largely get missed by the heaviest stuff, especially the south metro. However, if the storm tracks just a bit farther south, this heavy snow band could shift a little farther south as well and put the metro in the bullseye!
Seems odd to talk about rain in December, but this storm will bring warm enough temps to keep much of the precipitation in the liquid for across much of southern Minnesota. Here's a look at total precipitatoin in the liquid form through the end of the week. Note that areas in southern Minnesota could see up to 1.5" of liquid (again mostly in the form of rain), while the Twin Cities will see nearly 1" to 1.5" of liquid from this storm which will fall in the form of rain and snow.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday, December 26th
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from December 30th through January 3rd suggests cooler than average temps working back into much of the Lower 48 with the exception of the Southeastern US.
"How To Tell If Your Symptoms Are The Flu Or Just A Cold"
By Paul Douglas
Every storm is uniquely different - every new winter scenario offers creative new ways to disappoint Minnesota snow lovers. Here's an old axiom that now rings true: our biggest snows are (usually)preceded by arctic air; a deep cold dome of Canadian air firmly in place - lessening the chance of a changeover to ice or even rain.
After a numbing November temperatures have been above average in recent weeks. There is no deep layer of cold air firmly in place for this next storm, which may hook into Minnesota late Thursday, yanking milder air into the state too. Translation: a changeover to ice and rain will keep amounts down from the Twin Cities on south and east. While parts of southwest, central and northeast Minnesota may pick up a cool foot of snow. Blizzard conditions are possible over western Minnesota late Thursday as winds gust to 40 mph on the backside of this storm.
The metro may pick up a couple inches tonight, a couple more inches Friday, but Thursday's rain puts a big dent in snowfall totals for MSP. Close, but no cigar, or urban snowpocalypse. Rain in December? Sad!
WEDNESDAY: Few inches of snow overnight. Winds: E 10-15.High: 32.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain/snow mix. Few inches overnight. Winds: ESE 10-15. Low: 31.
THURSDAY: Metro rain. Heavy snow NW. Winds: E 10-20. High: 36.
FRIDAY: Inch or two of snow early. Cold wind. Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: 28. High: 29.
SATURDAY: Peeks of sun. Better travel day. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 8. High: 17.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM thaw possible. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 14. High: 32.
NEW YEARS EVE: Light snow or flurries. Winds: NW 8-13 Wake-up: 25. High: 31.
NEW YEARS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Numbing New Year. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 9.High: 14.
This Day in Weather History
1990: Much of central Minnesota sets record low temperatures near 30 degrees below zero, while others had lows in the teens below zero. Cambridge had the coldest temperature with 31 below. Mora was close behind, with a low of 30 below. Other notably cold lows were at St. Cloud, with 29 below, and Melrose and Menomonie, WI with 27 below.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 25F (Record: 52F set in 2011)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -27F set in 1996)
Record Rainfall: 0.60" set in 1880
Record Snowfall: 5.1" set in 1988
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 20 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 minute
Moon Phase for December 26th at Midnight
2.1 Days Before Last Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
"A reader asked: When can I see the Southern Cross in Hawaii? The answer is now – late December and early January – but you’ll have to look for it at just the right place and time of night. Each year at this time, Hawaiians – or those at the latitude of Hawaii – can see the Southern Cross in the southern sky briefly before dawn. The Southern Cross, aka the constellation Crux, stands close to upright, but quite low in the sky for the latitude of Honolulu. Be sure to find an unobstructed southern horizon. Follow the links below to learn more about the Southern Cross."
National Weather Outlook
A large storm system will continue to intensify as it moves into the Central US over the next could of days. Strong to severe storms along with heavy rain will be possible in the Southern US, while areas of heavy snow and freezing rain will be possible from the Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Severe Threat Wednesday & Thursday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a SLIGHT risk of severe storms across parts of the Southern US. Keep up to date with latest forecasts here if you have travel plans then.
7 Day Precipitation Potential
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipitation potential suggests heavy precipitation continuing across the Western part of the country, but take a look at the heavy moisture moving into the Central and Southeastern part of the country as we head into the 2nd half of next week! Showers, storms and heavy snow will be possible later next week - stay tuned!
"Over the span of just 70 days, 22 major hurricanes struck land around the Northern Hemisphere in 2018. They began earlier, continued later, and some took unexpected paths before hitting land. Between record-breaking hurricanes in both the Atlantic and Pacific, billions of dollars in damages were seen. All told, 2018 was one of the most active hurricane seasons on record, and some studies are speculating that a warming climate may be making these storms more frequent and more intense. A number of factors, however, can determine the strength of a hurricane when it hits land. Over the course of weeks, tropical storm systems must gather strength, survive wind shear, and pass over land obstacles before striking land as a hurricane."
"Where, exactly, is the edge of space? It depends on who you ask."
"ASK SOMEONE WHERE outer space is, and they’ll probably point at the sky. It’s up, right? Simple. Except, no one really knows where “air space” ends and “outer space” begins. That might sound trivial, but defining that boundary could matter for a variety of reasons—including, but not limited to, which high-flying humans get to be designated as astronauts. Now, with Virgin Galactic seemingly on the cusp of launching paying passengers onto suborbital trajectories, many people are wondering whether those lucky space tourists will earn their astronaut wings. As of right now, they will, according to U.S. practices. Is that a problem? “No, I think it’s great!” says NASA astronaut Mike Massimino, who helped repair the Hubble Space Telescope. Here, we take a look at the ways space is currently defined, the confusion surrounding the demarcation, and what the future might bring."
"Scientists slam door on the alleged 'pause' in global warming"
"Today, climate change deniers will resurrect the tired old argument that Earth's global warming stalled sometime at the beginning of this century. The evidence for such a slowdown, however, doesn't exist. A diverse group of global researchers published two papers in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters on Tuesday, affirming why such claims of a global warming hiatus are and always were misleading, at best. "We find there never was any statistical evidence for it," Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and coauthor of the research, said over email."
The winners travel to Sweden to help make their frozen visions a reality, aided by experienced ice artists."
"Crisp white winters are beginning to turn mushy gray across the northern United States. And the longer we wait to get serious about limiting climate change, a White Christmas could become a thing of the past for many cities later this century. As part of our Weather 2050 project, we examined how average winter low temperatures are projected to shift in the 1,000 largest US cities by 2050 if we do nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In our latest analysis, we found that in 67 cities, the average winter low temperature could cross a critical threshold by 2050: the freezing point of water."