A Taste of September?
Thanks to @DKayserwx for the picture below who is spending some time up north. That's Lake Superior and Split Rock Lighthouse in the distance. The lighthouse was actually lit Tuesday evening to celebrate the anniversary of the beacon lighting! I am sure that was a sight to see. Thanks for the great picture!

High Temps Thursday

High temps on Thursday will still be running a little cooler than average across the state thanks to a cool front that moved through on Wednesday. Interestingly, some folks in the Arrowhead of the state didn't even make out of the 50s for high tems on Wednesday... Talk about a taste of fall. I'm not ready yet!
Cooler Start to August, But Warmer Temps to Return
Thanks to the National Weather Service out of the Twin Cities for the fitting graphic below. While August is off to a bit of a cooler than normal start, we are going to be warming up as we head into the weekend. Highs on Friday could flirt with 90F again and weekend highs could be in the mid 80s with some summertime rumbles. Stay tuned...
Weather Outlook
Here's a look at the weather as we head into the weekend ahead. Thursday will be a brighter and better day than Wednesday was as a bubble of high pressure slides through the region. However, return flow on the backside of the high pressure system will allow warmer and more humid weather to return Friday. This will beckon the return of showers and storms as we head into the weekend with some seeing a few locally heavy pockets of rain and possibly a few strong storms.
Rainfall Potential
The GFS rainfall potential through the weekend suggests fairly decent amounts across parts of the state. Thanks to a few rounds of storms over the weekend, some locations could see up to 1" to 2", especially in the northwestern part of the state. Stay tuned...
MARGINAL Severe Risk on Friday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL severe risk on Friday across portions of western  Minnesota as our next storm system moves into the region. If a few vigorous storms fire up late in the day, it appears that gusty winds and large hail would be the primary concern. This will likely change a bit, so stay tuned. 
Extended Temperature Outlook
The extended forecast through mid August suggests much warmer weather moving in with highs approaching 90F several days as we head through the first full week of August. The GEFS forecast (top image) seems a little warmer than the ECMWF (bottom image), but both show warmer into August... get the ACs ready.

Why Is It Called the "Dog Days of Summer"?
By Paul Douglas

"The more I know about people, the more I love my dog" said Mark Twain. My dog, Leo, is a King Charles Cavalier Spaniel, a big name for a little canine with a thick fur coat. Leo isn't terribly fond of August. He is not looking forward to the Dog Days of Summer.

Named after the Dog Star, "Sirius", now visible in the pre-dawn hours. The ancient Greeks observed that Sirius, the brightest star in the nighttime sky, coincided with the hottest weather of the year. They theorized that this dazzling star added additional heat. They were wrong, of course, but that's why we wax eloquent (or dread) the dog days.

After a stunning, comfortably cool Thursday temperatures spike up Friday, but a family of cooler fronts next week will take the edge off the worst of the heat. Expect a streak of 80s the next couple of weeks, with the worst of the blast-furnace heat over the Plains and Rockies. We just get a taste.

Showers and T-storms are likely this weekend (sorry) but considering the fact that July rainfall over parts of eastern Minnesota was 50-75 percent of normal, we'll take it!

Extended Forecast

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, comfortable. Winds: NW 3-8. High: 76.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 61.

FRIDAY: Warmer & stickier. Stray T-storm. Winds: S 10-15. High: 88.

SATURDAY: Humid with a few T-storms likely. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 71. High: 83.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, pop-up PM T-storms. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 69. High: 85.

MONDAY: Some sun, few storms far southern MN?. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 84.

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, isolated shower. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 83.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sun, late-day thunder. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 86.

This Day in Weather History
August 2nd

1831: Unseasonably cool air moves into Minnesota with light frost reported at Ft. Snelling.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 2nd

Average High: 83F (Record: 99F set in 1988)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 46F set in 1971)

Record Rainfall: 2.69" set in 2006
Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 2nd

Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:38pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 38 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 25 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 59 Minutes

Moon Phase for August 2nd at Midnight
1.5 Days Before Last Quarter


National Weather Outlook: Thursday
High temps on Thursday will generally be cooler than average across much of the Central US,  while temps are starting to heat up again across the High Plains.

Large Wildfires
According to Inciweb, there are a number of large wildfires ongoing across the Western US. Unfortunately, the Carr Fire near Redding, CA has led to at least 6 fatalities and has consumed nearly 104,000 acres - larger than the size of Denver, CO. Unfortunately, the fire is only 23% contained and has destroyed nearly 1,100 structures. This is now the 7th most devastating fire in California history and is still threatening nearly 4,000 structures.  

Praedictix Briefing: Wednesday, August 1st, 2018

  • Hot, very dry and breezy winds are helping to fuel more than a dozen large wildfires across California.
  • 8 people have died and 4 people are still missing in Shasta County.
  • California spent a quarter of its yearly firefighting budget just during the month of July.
  • The Carr Fire near Redding, California has burned nearly 115,000 acres - an area larger than Denver, Colorado - and is 35% contained. It is the 7th most destructive fire in the state's history burning more than 1,600 structures. More than 2,500 structures remain threatened with numerous evacuations and road closures still in progress.
  • The Mendocino Complex Fire near Ukiah, California, consisting of 2 separate fires - Ranch Fire and River Fire - have burned a combined total of nearly 80,000 acres and both are about 10% contained. The 2 fires are threatening more than 10,000 structures and could to merge into 1 even larger mega-blaze.
  • The Ferguson Fire near Yosemite National Park has consumed nearly 63,000 acres and is 39% contained.
  • The Cranston Fire near Idyllwild, California has burned more than 13,000 acres and is 89% contained.

California Wildfires. Hot, very dry and windy weather conditions continue to fuel more than a dozen wildfires across the state that are being described as more destructive and burning at rates that haven't historically been seen before. 8 people have died and 4 remain missing in Shasta Country where the Carr Fire is burning near Redding, CA. The Carr Fire is currently the largest active wildfire in the state with more than 4,100 fire personnel working on the blaze. Thousands of other firefighters are battling several other blazes and are working in extremely difficult conditions, including steep and rugged terrain. Progress is being made on some of the bigger fires, but it is slow. The Mendocino Complex Fire near Ukiah, consisting of 2 separate fires, is threatening more than 10,000 structures and could potentially merge into 1 mega-blaze later this week. California has also spent a quarter of its yearly firefighting budget during the month of July alone.

Carr Fire. The Carr Fire burning near Redding, California has burned nearly 115,000 acres - an area larger than the size of Denver, CO - and is 35% contained. It is also the 7th most destructive wildfire in the state's history burning more than 1,600 structures and has also killed 6 people, including 2 firefighters. Nearly 4,100 fire personnel are working on the blaze, while more than 2,500 structures remain threatened. CalFire has more on the incident, including the latest on mandatory evacuation orders and road closures. 

Mendocino Complex. The Mendocino Complex consists of 2 separate fires - the River Fire and the Ranch Fire east of Ukiah, CA. Combined, these 2 fires have consumed more than 80,000 acres and are threatening more than 10,000 structures. Both fires are about 10% contained and there is concern that they could merge into 1 even larger mega-blaze. Nearly 2,700 fire personnel are working on these fires, but weather conditions remain unfavorable for any significant containment progress. CalFire has more on the Ranch Fire and River Fire, including more on the mandatory evacuations and road closures.


Ferguson Fire. According to Inciweb, the Ferguson Fire burning near Yosemite National Park has consumed nearly 63,000 acres and is 39% contained. Little improvement was made since yesterday, but steep and rugged terrain is making it very difficult for the 3,600 fire personnel to work effectively. An Arrowhead hotshot - firefighter - was killed in the Ferguson Fire Sunday morning battling the massive blaze raising the death toll to 8 fire related deaths since the wildfires started in California. Inciweb has more on the incident, including mandatory evacuations and road closures.

Cranston Fire. The Cranston fire - burning nearly Idyllwild - has consumed more than 13,000 acres and is now 89% contained. The good news is that firefighters are making good progress on this fire and estimated containment date is expected by August 9th. With that said, there are still a number of mandatory evacuations and road closures still in place. Inciweb has more on the fire.

Critical Fire Weather Concerns. Critical and elevated fire weather concerns are in place again today, where hot, dry and windy weather could create dangerous conditions for rapid fire growth.

Air Quality Concern. A by-product of wildfires is smoke and dangerous air quality, which is covering a wide area across the Western US. The most dangerous air quality is in closer proximity to the fires, where air quality alerts have been issued. Keep in mind that exposure to particle pollution can cause burning eyes, a runny nose, aggravated lung disease, asthma attacks, acute bronchitis and an increase risk of respiratory infections. Limit outdoor activities and follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung conditions.

Todd Nelson, Meteorologist, Praedictix

"Carr Fire in California becomes 7th most destructive fire in state history"
"The catastrophic Carr fire blazed a path of devastation, becoming the 7th most destructive fire in California history as it burned more than 1,100 structures and left six people dead. The fire, which started more than a week ago, has burned 103,772 acres -- scorching an area bigger than the size of Denver. The Carr fire is burning so large and intensely that it created its own localized weather system, making it difficult for experts to predict which way the blaze will spread. Wildfires like this can get so hot they make pyrocumulus clouds, formations that look like mushroom clouds and can be seen for miles.Smoke from the massive blaze and another California fire burning near Yosemite National Park, called the Ferguson Fire, could be seen in satellite images."
"#CarrFire – Satellite Shows California Shrouded in Smoke"
NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural color image of the fires in California and the resultant smoke that has shrouded the state and swept eastward as far as Salt Lake City and still moving. Dangerous and deadly fires have broken out across the state including the Carr fire inferno and the long-standing Ferguson fire near Yosemite National Park as well as the Mendocino Complex north of Santa Rosa. The Carr fire located near Redding, California has exploded over the week from its inception.  Now at 98,724 acres and is 20% contained.  Six people have died as a result of this deadly fire and the Carr fire has also destroyed 723 residences, 3 commercial buildings, and 240 outbuildings with over 5,000 more structures in danger. There are a staggering number of mandatory evacuations that can be found at the Shasta County Sheriff’s website.  Over 3,300 firefighters are engaged in this effort. Weather forecasts are not favorable for fighting this or any of the other fires in California. The hot, dry weather that contributed to the deadly California firestorm shows no sign of letting up into the first part of August.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, weather conditions in the Atlantic basin remain rather quiet with no tropical cyclones expected over the next 5 days.
Eastern Pacific Outlook
The NHC ihas now started issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern Pacific, which is the 8th named storm of the season. 
Tracking Hector
According to NOAA's NHC, Hector is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days and could become a hurricane by Friday. The good news is that Hector will continue to drift west and shouldn't be an issue for any major land masses.
Tropical Climatology
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in the early part of August. Note that in the Atlantic, we start seeing more activity in the Central Atlantic and near the Cape Verge Islands off the western tip of Africa.
Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season

According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!

2018 Lightning Fatalities - FIFTEEN

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 15 people have died from lightning; 12 have been males and only 3 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 232 males have died, while only 64 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

Average Tornadoes in August By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of August by state. Florida sees the most with 7, while Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes. During the dog days of Summer, the tornado count typically fades across the nation.

3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Mon, Aug 4-Aug 6.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Fri-Sat, Aug 3-Aug 4.
3.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Aug 5-Aug 6.
Flooding possible across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
4.) Excessive heat across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Aug 6-Aug 7.
5.) Enhanced wildfire risk across northern portions of the interior West, Fri, Aug 3.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Wed-Thu, Aug 8-Aug 9.
6.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Wed-Mon, Aug 8-Aug 13.
7.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Aug 8-Aug 10.
8.) Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Sat, Aug 8-Aug 11.
9.) Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Aug 8-Aug 9.
10.) Severe Drought across the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and Southern Rockies, the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.


 Temperature Anomaly on Wednesday

The temperature anomaly across North America on Wednesday showed temperatures well above average across the Western US and Western Canada. while, much of the Central US was dealing with cooler than average temps, which at this time of the year is pretty comfortable.

Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature anomaly as we head into the first part of August. Note the blue colors or cooler than average temperatures will continue across much of the Central US. These cooler than average temperatures will be fairly comfortable weather across those areas. However, warmer than average temperatures look to return to the Upper Midwest as we head closer to the first weekend of August.

Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows active weather continuing in the Eastern US with areas of locally heavy rain and possibly a few strong to severe storms. Spotty storms will be possible across the Intermountain West and in the Southwest due to monsoon storms.


7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain across the Eastern US with several inches of rain possible as we head into the first part of August. In fact, Flash Flood Watches have been posted across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States into the Northeast through Thursday for the potential of 2" to 4" of rain. There also appears to be another blob of heavier rain across the Southwest due to monsoon storms and the Upper Midwest with some passing cooler fronts.

US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from July 24th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and for a few areas in the Central and Southern Plains. The good news is that the Monsoon season continues in the Southwest, so some locations should continue to see improvement there. 


8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, August 9th - 15th will be warmer than average across much of the central US once again, while cooler temps will linger across the Southeast and across much of Alaska.


"Death Valley posts hottest month ever recorded on Earth, for the second July in a row"

Last July, California’s Death Valley endured the hottest month ever measured on the planet. This July ended up even hotter. Over both day and night, the temperature at Death Valley averaged 108.1 degrees, ahead of the mark set a year ago by about a half-degree. That previous mark had broken a record that stood for 100 years. This year’s exceptional temperature extreme at one of the planet’s hottest locations puts an exclamation mark on a month in which record-high temperatures have fallen on every continent in the Northern Hemisphere. Searing heat in Death Valley in July, is of course, the norm. So it might be hard to contemplate it being unusually hot in such a place. But this July’s temperature has averaged nearly six degrees above the average of 102.2.

Consider some of these incredible numbers:

**The high temperature hit at least 120 degrees on 21 days, sailing past the normal high of 116.5 degrees.
From July 24 to 27, the high soared to 127 degrees setting records on each of those four dates. This mark was not far from the location’s highest reliable temperature measurement in recent decades of 129 set on June 30, 2013.
**The low temperature remained above 100 degrees on 10 days.

See more from Washington Post HERE:


"A Few More Bad Apples: As The Climate Changes, Fruit Growing Does, Too"

"The apples won't be harvested until October. But when fourth-generation fruit grower Phil Schwallier walks through his orchard in Sparta, Mich., he already knows which ones he won't be able to sell. "This one's got a little sunburn on it," he says in early July. "A red yellowish color developing here on the part that's facing the sun. That's just from Friday, Saturday, Sunday, when it was so hot." The warming climate is an increasing problem for agriculture. As weather disasters like heat waves and floods become more frequent and severe, crops are at risk of damage. But even in a good year, slowly rising temperatures make growing the food we eat more difficult. For instance, too much heat can mess with an apple's color. If nights don't cool down enough for their pigment to fix in place, an apple that is supposed to turn red won't — ending up a murky pinkish-brown instead."

See more from NPR HERE:


"Platinum is key in ancient volcanic related climate change"

"Scientists look to platinum for clues to stay ahead of future high magnitude volcanic related climate change. Supervolcanoes are one of Mother Nature's deadliest phenomena, and when they erupt, they can change the climate of the entire planet. To get a glimpse for how future catastrophic volcanic events might alter our lives, scientists at the University of Cincinnati dug deep into the past to find new evidence for volcanic related climate change. The results of the study are published in the July issue of Scientific Reports titled "Positive platinum anomalies at three late holocene high magnitude volcanic events in Western Hemisphere sediments." "We looked at platinum particles as an indicator for how far volcanic ash has traveled," says Kenneth Tankersley, UC associate professor of anthropology and geology and lead author on the study. "The age of the sediment containing the platinum allowed our interdisciplinary team of anthropologists, geologists, geographers and biologists to directly pinpoint radical change in climate for eight different Western hemisphere archeological sites to three major catastrophic volcanoes from the beginning of the little ice age and Medieval Warming. The most recent dated to the 18th-century."

See more from Science Daily HERE:


"China could face deadly heat waves due to climate change"

"One of the world’s most densely populated regions may push the boundaries of habitability by the end of this century, study finds. A region that holds one of the biggest concentrations of people on Earth could be pushing against the boundaries of habitability by the latter part of this century, a new study shows. Research has shown that beyond a certain threshold of temperature and humidity, a person cannot survive unprotected in the open for extended periods — as, for example, farmers must do. Now, a new MIT study shows that unless drastic measures are taken to limit climate-changing emissions, China’s most populous and agriculturally important region could face such deadly conditions repeatedly, suffering the most damaging heat effects, at least as far as human life is concerned, of any place on the planet. The study shows that the risk of deadly heat waves is significantly increased because of intensive irrigation in this relatively dry but highly fertile region, known as the North China Plain — a region whose role in that country is comparable to that of the Midwest in the U.S. That increased vulnerability to heat arises because the irrigation exposes more water to evaporation, leading to higher humidity in the air than would otherwise be present and exacerbating the physiological stresses of the temperature."

See more from MIT News HERE:


"A hellish July validates climate change forecasts"

With the cost of climate change to the U.S. economy averaging $240 billion a year, America can't afford not to act. his month's weather has been downright hellish in parts of the United States and across the globe, providing further evidence that the impact of climate change is no longer relegated to starving polar bears and shrinking ice caps. In the USA, Americans awoke Monday to images of deadly wildfires scorching California and other Western states. July's extreme weather stretched from an all-time high of 111 degrees recorded at UCLA to a record 16.4 inches of rain in Baltimore.

The pattern of misery spread across the globe:

►Tinder-dry conditions and record heat triggered a firestorm in Greece, killing more than 90.

►Historic heat in Japan left at least 77 dead.

►Africa recorded its highest reliably recorded temperature in modern history: 124.3 degrees in Algeria.

►Record highs were also recorded from Armenia to the United Kingdom to above the Arctic Circle. Torrential rains flooded Japan and collapsed a dam in Laos, killing hundreds.

See more from USA Today HERE:


"2018 is on pace to be the 4th-hottest year on record"

Sunburned? You're not the only one. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2018 is on pace to be the fourth hottest year on record. Only three other years have been hotter: 2015, 2016 and 2017. The upward trend is not lost on experts, who say the rising temperature is a clear indicator of global warming. "The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle," said Michael Mann, a climate scientist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University."We are seeing them play out in real time in the form of unprecedented heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires. And we've seen them all this summer," he said.

See more from CNN HERE:


"Heatwave Turns Europe Brown"

"A persistent heatwave has been lingering over parts of Europe, setting record high temperatures and turning typically green landscapes to brown. The images above show browning in north-central Europe on July 24, 2018. For comparison, the second image shows the same area one year ago. Both images were acquired by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPPsatellite. According to the European Space Agency, these regions turned brown in just a month, during which several countries experienced record high temperatures and low precipitation. Much of Germany has experienced drought conditions since May. The United Kingdom experienced its driest first half of summer (June 1 to July 16) on record. The image pair below shows the burned landscape of the United Kingdom and northwestern Europe as of July 15, 2018, compared with July 17, 2017. Both images were acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite."

See more from Earth Observatory HERE:



"Wildfires Raging in Greece and California Prove Climate Change Is Here"

"First there was Sweden. Then Greece. California. It’s the summer of heat and wildfires, and extremely weird, violent ones at that. But how do we know it’s climate change? On Friday, the World Weather Attribution Project released a damning report that argued the sizzling heat and wildfires burning the planet are anthropogenic—human caused, no doubt about it. The pressure systems have a hand, sure, but the heat waves in Europe, a continent that has rarely seen temperatures climb into the hundreds, are about to become a norm. There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Climate change is here, and we are living in its burning embers."

See more from The Daily Beast HERE:



"Climate experts now cite global warming during extreme weather disasters"

"There is a developing consensus that scientists can be more precise and forceful in connecting some extreme weather events to a warming planet“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” Rahm Emanuel, former President Barack Obama’s first chief of staff, once said. The spirit of the now-mayor of Chicago's words live today among climate change researchers and activists, who are using a string of emergencies around the globe to draw attention to human-driven global warming. With deadly wildfires scorching Greece and California, drought throwing Capetown, South Africa, into a water crisis and deadly heat searing Japan, just days after flooding killed 150, the signs of an over-stressed planet seem everywhere. For many who study such calamities, the moment cries out for an explanation and offers an opportunity."

See more from NBC News HERE:


Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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