Minnesota Drought Update

The latest update from the Drought Monitor released on Thursday shows some slight improvement in the drought across northwestern Minnesota. The 0.09% of the state that was under moderate drought has disappeared, and the abnormally dry conditions area has shrunk to 5.41% of Minnesota. This was due to widespread rain that has fallen across the region over the past week and a half. However, this area of the state is still running slightly below average in rainfall since May 1st.


Minnesota Deer Opener Weather Statistics

Image: Deer Hunt - 1933. Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society

Saturday is the annual Minnesota Deer Opener as hunters will be heading out into the woods in blaze orange. Do you remember last years opener, when International Falls saw 6" of snow? Here's more from the Minnesota Climatology Department and the MN DNR: "Minnesota's 2018 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 3. The normal high temperature for November 3 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s to low 30s. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 3 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. There has been significant snowfall on the Firearm Deer Hunting Opener in recent memory. 6.0 inches of snow fell at International Falls on the Deer Hunting Opener in 2017. In St. Cloud, a mere 0.3 inches fell, but there was a snow cover of 4 inches. The 2017 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener was cold and wintry with 30s to low 40s statewide.

What will this year hold? Well, by the title of the blog, you can tell it probably will be wet. I'll have your full Deer Opener forecast below.


Wet Weather Expected For The 2018 Deer Opener
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

As you wake up Saturday morning, numerous hunters are out in the woods observing the annual Minnesota Deer Opener. Looking at the past couple of years, the 2017 Deer Hunting Opener was cool and wintry with highs in the 30s and 40s across the state. Accumulating snow fell across parts of northern and central Minnesota with 6" in International Falls, 1.1" in Duluth, and 0.3" in St. Cloud. Meanwhile, the 2016 opener featured highs in the 60s and 70s across the state – not exactly the deer hunting weather you’d expect for early November.

Umbrellas will be quite handy over the next several days across the state. A system moving through the upper Midwest will bring rain, mixed with snow at times across in Minnesota, for deer hunters this weekend. Another chance of rain moves in for Election Day.

Meanwhile, don’t forget to do your best Cher impression and “turn back time” Saturday night as daylight saving time ends. Starting Sunday the sunset will be before 5 PM, and on Monday we dip below 10 hours of daylight per day.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Wet Deer Opener. High 45. Low 37. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: "Fall back" one hour! Rain tapers late. High 43. Low 37. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Rain moves in late. High 47. Low 38. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Rainy Election Day. Late night flakes. High 42. Low 33. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Rain/snow mix lingers. High 38. Low 26. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Chilly. High 35. Low 23. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-15 mph.
FRIDAY: More sun than clouds. High 36. Low 22. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.


This Day in Weather History
November 3rd

1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities.

1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit.

1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 3rd

Average High: 49F (Record: 74F set in 2008)
Average Low: 33F (Record: 8F set in 1991)
Average Precipitation: 0.06" (Record: 0.53" set in 1970)
Average Snow: 0.2" (Record: 4.2" in 1921)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 3rd

Sunrise: 7:54 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 4 minutes and 3 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 44 seconds

*Next Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM (After DST): December 1st (7:31 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 6th-14th (4:31 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 10 Hours Of Daylight?: November 5th (9 hours, 58 minutes, 38 seconds)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

As deer hunters wake up and go to their stands Saturday morning temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s across the state. Rain will already be spreading into parts of southern Minnesota, with a rain/snow mix to all snow across parts of central and northwestern Minnesota.

Wet weather will be the story for Saturday across most of the state as an area of low pressure moves into the region. About the only areas of the state that will potentially miss out on the precipitation during the day will be far northern parts of Minnesota - areas like Roseau and International Falls. Across a chunk of central and southern Minnesota precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain, but a rain/snow mix is possible from areas like Brainerd northward. Highs will be in the 30s across northern Minnesota, climbing into the 40s in central and southern areas.

Saturday will be a cooler than average day across most of the state, with highs running up to ten degrees below average.

Temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s once again waking up Sunday morning with precipitation across most of the state. In parts of northern Minnesota, we could areas that turn over to all snow. Closer to St. Cloud, mixed precipitation is possible, with all rain expected for the Twin Cities.

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s across the state, with precipitation chances lingering as the area of low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes region.

Highs will remain fairly steady in the mid-40s through the weekend and early next week in the Twin Cities before they take a tumble for the middle and end of next week. Highs will only be in the 30s by Wednesday, with some models hinting at the potential of highs in the 20s by the end of the week.

The heaviest precipitation (rain and melted snow) will fall across southeastern Minnesota through Sunday evening, where up to an inch of liquid is possible.

Meanwhile, across parts of central and northern Minnesota, some snow could accumulate, especially during the overnight time frames. Most of the snow accumulation should be less than an inch.

After the rain chances in the Twin Cities through the weekend, another system will move in late Monday into Election Day Tuesday, bringing more rain along with it. Some of that rain could change over to at least a rain/snow mix Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Speaking of Election Day, here's a look at the Tuesday forecast across the state. More rain will be possible across the state, with some snow mixing in across northern parts. Highs will range from the 30s up north to 40s in southern Minnesota.


National Weather Forecast

As a cold front finally start to clear the East Coast, showers and a few storms will still be possible for areas in the Northeast and southern Florida. A low-pressure area pushing out into the central U.S. will bring rain and snow to parts of the central and northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A new system pushing into the Pacific Northwest will bring rain and higher elevation snow to the region.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will be possible near the Northeast coast from Friday into Saturday as a cold front brings heavy rain to the region before finally pushing offshore Saturday. With another system moving into the Northwest, heavy precipitation of at least three inches will be possible for areas like the Cascades and Olympics.

While snowfall of up to a couple inches will be possible across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas and the western Great Lakes, the heaviest snow through the weekend will be in the Rockies. In parts of the Rockies, snowfall of 6-12"+ will be possible.

Meanwhile, there is already hints that a severe weather event could unfold across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, including areas like Memphis, Jackson, and New Orleans. If everything comes together, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes would be possible.

Here's a look at the weather across the country for Election Day. Showers will be possible from the upper Midwest into the Northeast and Southeast, with a few rumbles of thunder possible in parts of Texas. Some snow may also mix in from parts of northern Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Rain and snow will also be possible across parts of the Northwest.


High Winds Possible In The Northeast Saturday - High Wind Watches From NYC To Augusta Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Friday, November 2nd, 2018

  • Behind a cold front passing through the Northeast winds are expected to increase across parts of the region Saturday.
  • High Wind Watches have been issued from New York City into southern Maine for the potential of 50-60 mph wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.
  • These strong winds would have the potential to knock power out as well as down trees and power lines.

High Wind Watches. Due to the potential of strong to damaging winds behind a cold front Saturday across parts of the Northeast, High Wind Watches have been issued for the afternoon and evening hours. These watches include New York City, Hartford, Providence, Boston, Portland, and Augusta.

Forecast Highest Wind Gust Saturday. Winds will have the potential to gust up to 60 mph across the High Wind Watch area during the second half of Saturday. These strong winds will have the potential to blow down trees and tree limbs as well as power lines, with power outages possible.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


Don't Forget To Turn Back The Clock Saturday Night

Don’t forget to do your best Cher impression and “turn back time” Saturday Night as daylight saving time ends! We will gain an hour of sleep (or, in all reality, we will wake up an hour earlier) Sunday as we turn the clock back an hour at 2 AM. That means you get to live through the 1 AM hour of this Sunday twice!

The USA Today has put together twelve "fun fact" about Daylight Saving Time - including that it's actually the Department of Transportation that is in charge of time in the U.S. Here are a couple of the facts - more of which you can read by clicking here:

"1. While not necessarily advocating changing time, Benjamin Franklin urged his fellow countrymen to work during daylight and sleep after dark, thus saving money on candles. (It was likely a tongue-in-cheek comment.)

2. The U.S. first implemented daylight saving during World War I as a way to conserve fuel with the Standard Time Act of 1918, also known as the Calder Act. In World War II, President Franklin D. Roosevelt implemented a year-round daylight saving time that was commonly known as "War Time."


We're hoping for an epic Colorado winter to break our drought

More from KUSA-TV: "Newly-released statistics from the National Weather Service for Denver's October shows our temperatures were slightly below average and precipitation was about average. Southwest Colorado has also seen plenty of snow with resorts like Wolf Creek reporting 56 inches of snow so far this season. However, we still haven't seen much of a change in our drought conditions. A severe to exceptional drought continues through the west and southwest, but dry weather in Colorado is not unusual. We’ve seen our fair share of droughts. In fact, our climate is considered arid. Compared to many other states, we don’t get a lot of rain."

Trump Embraces Tree-Fired Power That Scientists Call Worse Than Coal

More from Bloomberg: "The Trump administration endorsed burning trees and other biomass to produce energy on Thursday, vowing to promote a practice some scientists have declared more environmentally devastating than coal-fired power. The Environmental Protection Agency joined the departments of Energy and Agriculture in a letter to congressional leaders committing to “encourage the use of biomass as an energy solution.” The EPA also reasserted its view that power plants burning trees and other woody materials to generate electricity should be viewed as carbon neutral, because when the plants eventually regrow they remove carbon dioxide from the air. The agencies also are committing to collaborate on policies promoting biomass, which could include Energy Department research and encouraging utilities to substitute wood for coal in power plants. EPA Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler said the move “will support good-paying jobs in rural communities, protect our nation’s air quality and remove unnecessary regulatory burdens."

Palau Becomes First Nation to Ban Sunscreens That Harm Corals

More from Earther: "Sunscreen is essential for any tropical trip. After all, no one’s trying to return home with red, burnt skin. Your favorite brand may soon be illegal, however, if you’re headed to Palau, a 500-island archipelago in the Pacific. Why? Because some sunscreens contain chemicals that are harmful to coral. On Thursday, the island nation passed a law that’ll ban sunscreens containing 10 coral-damaging chemicals starting 2020, per the BBC. Any retailers who ignore the law and continue to sell their products featuring chemicals like oxybenzone, octocrylene, and parabens can face $1,000 fines, the AFP reports. While the BBC reports Palau is the first country to set such a ban, Hawaii has already moved ahead with a ban of its own. In May, the U.S. state finalized the ban to keep these chemicals off its reefs, which have been rapidly deteriorating. Sunscreen has played a tragic role."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Saturday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser


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