Periods Of Rain Sunday Night Into Monday

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms look likely across a good portion of the state as we head through Sunday Night into Monday. A good portion of the state could end up with over an inch of rain, with some areas across central and northwestern Minnesota potentially seeing up to 2" by the time rain comes to an end late Monday into Monday Night. If you're heading to the State Fair Monday you might want to bring a poncho along with you.


August Rain Through Saturday

With more rain on the way to begin the last week of August, let's take a look at where we are sitting rainfall wise so far this month. Through Saturday in the Twin Cities, the Twin Cities is sitting 2.02" above average with 5.46" of rain so far during the month of August. That is good enough for the 12th wettest start to the month on record (again, through August 24th) and if no additional rain fell August 2019 would go down as the 25th wettest August on record. If rain over the next few days can buoy us up to exactly 6" of rain for the month, it would be the 17th wettest, and if we can get to 7" it would be the 9th wettest.

Meanwhile, other areas of southern Minnesota that have been hit with heavy rain so far this year have been pretty dry so far in August, with Rochester only picking up 1.13" of rain so far (-2.41" below average). Portions of northern Minnesota have also been drier than average, with areas like Duluth, Hibbing, and Baudette over an inch below average.


Strong Winds Expected Tuesday And Wednesday

Strong winds are expected across the region Tuesday behind a cold front due to a tight pressure gradient with an area of low pressure in western Ontario. By the afternoon hours, sustained winds are expected to be out of the west at 10-20 mph with wind gusts over 30 mph possible across most of the state.

Another windy day is expected Wednesday, with sustained west winds in the Twin Cities at 10-15 mph, but once again wind gusts up to (if not topping) 30 mph will be possible.


No 90s In August So Far At MSP

Even though our average temperature for the month of August is currently above average, one thing that hasn't helped that out is 90-degree days. That's because we haven't recorded one so far, with the warmest high so far at MSP this month being 88F, which occurred on both the 4th and 7th.

If the current forecast holds, we won't see 90F at all this month and could struggle to make it to even 80F over the last several days of August (more on that below). If that is the case, it would go down as the 28th August on record with no 90-degree days at the MSP climate site. It most recently happened in 2017, and since 2000 will have occurred 8 times.


Another Manic Year of Minnesota Meteorology
By Paul Douglas

When I tell people Minnesota is the Super Bowl of Weather I'm not exaggerating. The most extreme weather erupts near the center of continents, well away from the moderating influence of oceans. Only Siberia has greater swings in temperature and moisture.

Some days weather whiplash leaves me feeling an odd mix of pride and horror. Dr. Mark Seeley confirms February was Minnesota's snowiest. 10 climate stations reported over 100 inches of snow last winter. White and wet; 2019 is the second wettest year so far in the Twin Cities, with rainfall 8-10 inches above average over southern Minnesota. You want to talk extremes? -65F wind chill at Hibbing on January 30 and a heat index of 116F at Winthrop on July 19. Hey, what's 181 degrees among friends?

Today looks like the wettest day in sight with over half an inch of rain. Tuesday won't win any awards, with spits of rain and winds gusting to 30 mph. With the exception of a Friday shower, comfortable sunshine prevails from Wednesday into Labor Day with highs in the 70s.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Showers and T-storms. Wake up 62. High 71. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SW
8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Blustery winds, few lingering showers. Wake up 58. High 72. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 20-35 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More sunshine, winds ease. Wake up 57. High 73. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, warmest day in sight. Wake up 57. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Few showers south, cool sun north. Wake up 60. High 75. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, pretty spectacular. Wake up 54. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Plenty of comfortable sunshine. Wake up 53. High 74. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW  5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
August 26th

1915: Unseasonably cold air leads to killing frosts across Minnesota, with a low of 23 degrees at Roseau.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 26th

Average High: 79F (Record: 97F set in 2013)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 44F set in 1968)
Average Precipitation: 0.12" (Record: 2.04" set in 2005)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 26th

Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 33 minutes and 24 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 56 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 13.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 28th (13 hours, 27 minutes, and 29 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 6:30 AM: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8:00 PM: August 27th (7:59 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

If you're heading out to the State Fair Monday, you are going to have to dodge periods of showers and t-storms on Monday, along with the rest of the state. Highs will be in the 70s in many areas, however, in the Arrowhead they will only make it into the 60s.

Taking a closer look at the Arrowhead... it's going to be a cool and wet late August day Monday. Tofte is only expected to reach a high of 64F!

Highs on Monday will be about 5F degrees below average across a good portion of the state. The average high for August 26th in the Twin Cities is 79F - yes, our averages are now in the 70s as summer slowly fades away.

If you're heading out to the State Fair this week, you really won't be able to complain about the temperatures all that much! Highs will be below average this week in the Twin Cities as they'll climb only into the 70s. The warmest day appears to be Thursday, as highs climb into the mid-70s. The best chance of rain once again is Monday, but there will be about a 30% chance of some showers or t-storms Tuesday afternoon - otherwise, the rest of the week looks mainly dry.

It appears we'll end the month of August without a 90F degree high in the Twin Cities, as highs mainly remain in the 70s through the Labor Day weekend. There are some hints that we could see highs approach 80F this Thursday, with potentially another "warmer" period of highs in the low 80s toward the first few days back to school after Labor Day.

After rain chances Monday and Tuesday, we could end up being dry through at least Labor Day, meaning no t-storms to drive you inside from the lake or at the State Fair as you celebrate the unofficial end to summer at least here in the Twin Cities.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front approaching the Upper Midwest will help spark showers and t-storms across the region, some of which will be capable of heavier rain at times. A lingering boundary across the Southeast will also allow for heavier showers and t-storms. Summertime heat will continue across portions of the South and Southwest, meanwhile, highs will be below average from the northern Rockies across the upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

We could see numerous records broken Monday across the Southern Plains and the Southwest from Flagstaff, AZ, to areas like Albuquerque, Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, and San Angelo.

Taking a closer look at the heat across the Southern Plains on Monday, areas like Amarillo, Lubbock, Dallas, and San Antonio are all expected to climb into the 100s for highs. When you factor in the humidity, it'll feel more like 111F at times during the afternoon in both Dallas and Brownsville.

Some of the heaviest rain through 7 PM Tuesday will be along the northern Gulf Coast and in the Deep South, where rainfall totals could top 2-4" as a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

It's been quite a wet few days down in Fort Smith, AR, where they have set three daily rainfall records in a row. Between Thursday and Saturday, over 9" of rain has fallen! They are now up to 10.42" of rain this month, 8.41" above average and in second place for the wettest August on record. The August record is 10.89" set in 1890.


Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Dorian has been strengthening out in the Atlantic. As of the 5 PM AST Sunday update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian had winds of 50 mph and was moving west at 14 mph. The center of Dorian was 375 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The system is expected to strengthen over the next couple days, and it could be a hurricane over the Caribbean Sea Tuesday before weakening as it passes over Hispaniola by the end of the week.

We also continue to track an area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras that has a chance to gradually develop into a tropical or subtropical system in the next couple of days. As of Sunday afternoon, this area had a 70% chance of formation in the next two days according to the National Hurricane Center, and an 80% chance in the next five days.


6 Injured in Lightning Strike at PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta

More from the New York Times: "Six people were hurt when lightning struck a golf course twice on Saturday during the third round of the Tour Championship. The strikes hit the East Lake Golf Course as fans and golfers waited for bad weather to pass. The tournament’s organizers responded by stopping play for the day, pushing the round to Sunday, and said the injuries did not appear to be life-threatening. Ambulances were summoned to an area between the 16th tee and the driving range around 4:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. One of those hit was Billy Kramer, a resident of Dunwoody, Ga., and the owner of N.F.A. Burger, one of the tournament’s food vendors. He was in a cart, driving to collect more supplies for his stand off the eighth fairway, when a lightning bolt struck a pine tree just off the path where he was driving."

Anchorage enters “extreme drought” for the first time

More from KTTU-TV: "Drought conditions worsened in Anchorage in the past week moving the region from Severe drought to Extreme drought for the first time on record. Area of the Kenai Peninsula have shifted from Moderate drought conditions to Severe drought in the past week. According to the Drought Monitor, 63 percent of the population remains under drought conditions. Anchorage saw a record dry month in June with only .06 inches of rain. Only .8 inches of rain fell in July, which is more than one inch below normal for the month. Only a trace of precipitation has been recorded in August so far. This puts Anchorage more than four inches below normal for the summer but only 2.24 inches below normal for the year, partially due to a record wet May."

Global Warming Increases Threat of Himalayas' Killer Lakes

More from VOA News: "When a "Himalayan tsunami" roars down from the rooftop of the world, water from an overflowing glacial lake obeys gravity. Obliterating everything in its path, a burst is predictable only in its destructiveness."There was no meaning in it," one person who withstood the waters in India's Himalayas told a Public Radio International reporter. "It didn't give anyone a chance to survive."Christian Huggel, a professor at the University of Zurich in Switzerland who specializes in glaciology and geomorphodynamics (the study of changing forms of geologic surfaces), said thousands of cubic meters of water moving down a mountain "is really quite destructive and it can happen suddenly."That water comes from glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs, which are increasing in frequency as climate change increases the rate of glacial melting. This catastrophic lake drainage occurs wherever there are glaciers in places such as Peru and Alaska."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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