Strong Winds Tuesday
 
The National Weather Service has issued a number of Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings across the region in advance of strong winds expected on Tuesday. Wind Advisories (in light brown) will range from 20mph to 45mph, while winds in the High Wind Warning areas could range from 25mph to 60mph! It might be a good idea to secure any loose lawn furniture in these areas... too bad it's garbage day in my neighborhood.  
 
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Highest Peak Wind Gusts For Tuesday
 
The peak wind gusts expected on Tuesday could range from 40mph to 60mph on Tuesday. Keep in mind that the national weather service issues severe thunderstorm warnings when winds get up to 58mph. 
 
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Weather Outlook Tuesday
 
Tuesday will be a cool and windy day across the region with temperature only warming into the 30s and 40s, which willl be nearly -10F below average for the end of October. It'll feel a lot like November wind wind chill values only warming into the 30s - BRR!
 
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Weather Outlook AM Tuesday to Midday Wednesday

The weather outlook from AM Tuesday to midday Wednesday looks fairly active across the region as a strong storm system swirls northeast. Strong winds and lingering showers will continue Tuesday, while winds subside a bit on Wednesday. It could be cold enough late Tuesday into Wednesday for a few wet snow flakes to mix in across parts of the region, but there won't be any major accumulations anywhere.


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Forecast Storm Total From Monday to Tuesday

Monday was a very wet day across the region, but the storm isn't over just yet. Lingering showers will continue on Tuesday with rainfall totals approaching 1.5" to 2" across the region. 

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Twin Cities 7 Day

Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities, which looks a bit chilly as we approach midweek with temps tumbling into the 40s by Tuesday. Our current storm system will blow through on Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and strong winds. There could be enough lingering cold air in place for a light rain/snow mix on Wednesday. Friday morning we could have the season's first frost in the Twin Cities Metro.
 
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Less Than 2 Week Until the Time Change...
 
Believe it or not, we are less than 2 weeks away until the time change. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December.
 
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Fall Colors Peaking!
 
One of my favorite things about fall is the the beautiful display of color that nature provides. Take a look that this picture that I snapped in my neighborhood on Sunday. Unfortunately, strong winds on Tuesday will have these beautiful colors raining to the ground much of the day.
 
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MN Fall Color Update
 
According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests the northern half of the state are already passed peak, while the Twin Cities has yet to get into peak color. The fall colors will go fast, espeically with the expected strong winds on Tuesday. Enjoy the fall color while you can!
 
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Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities see peak color around mid October. It's hard to believe, but the fall color is almost gone.

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How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

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Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 21st

"Eighty-nine percent of the corn crop was mature, 18 days behind last year and 10 days behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 11 percent, 17 days behind last year and 13 days behind the average. Corn harvested for silage reached 90 percent this week, 12 days behind average. Corn condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, a slight improvement from the previous week. Nearly all soybeans have dropped their leaves, 6 days behind normal. Forty-two percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 2 weeks behind average. Soybean condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, remaining steady when compared to the previous week."
 
 
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Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th.  The Twin Cities got close on the 12th, but only dropped to 33F. The earliest frost was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

 ________________________________________________________________________ Frosty Friday Morning Friday morning will likely dip below freezing across much of the state and could potentially be the first official frost of the season at the Twin Cities Airport! Other locations across the state will dip into the 20s, which could lead to a killing freeze for many locations as well. ____________________________________________________________________________ US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on October 15th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question! ___________________________________________________________________________  "Phenology: October 1st, 2019"
If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:  "Taking time to contemplate what is happening in nature is one of the many aspects of Northern Community Radio that sets us apart from any other radio station.  Each day we bring you a phenology note where our resident phenologist John Latimer shares a note from his journals of more than 35 years of climate and nature data collection.  Each Tuesday we dig even deeper with the full Phenology Report.  If you appreciate this programming, become a member today or increase the contribution amount of your current membership to this one of a kind, rural, hip, environemntally conscious radio station! School is on!  We are excited to start hearing from our intrepid student reporters in classrooms around northern Minnesota!  If you are a teacher or work with kids, you are invited to join the Phenology Network on KAXE/KBXE!  John has created a curriculum spanning the whole school year and will connect with you on how to get your students observing nature and sending in their phenology reports. Send an email of interest along to get set up!"
 
 
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Points of Tropical Origin: October 21st - 31st

Tropical activity through the end of October is still somewhat active, ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
 
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Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook for precipitation looks drier than average across the Northwest with wetter than average conditions continuing across the southern and southeastern US.
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month looks quite chilly across much of the nation, especially across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in Alaska and in Florida looks warmer than average.


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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of October and into early November. Note that readings will take a bit of a hit this week with highs only warming into the 40s. If the current forecast holds, it could be even colder by Halloween.

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Warmest October Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of October, which shows only (2) 90F days on record. The most recent warmest day was 88 degrees back in 2011.

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Welcome to the Land of Lakes, Ponds & Puddles
By Paul Douglas

You know what's worse than raining cats and dogs? Hailing taxis. Sorry, my sense of humor has rusted shut. Moss is growing on my northern side. My car seat is now a flotation device.

Some 1-2 inch rainfall amounts soaked Minnesota yesterday, and we should easily log the wettest year in recorded Minnesota history. And the wettest decade too, according to Mark Seeley.

Will this pervasive and persistent wet signal spill into winter? Probably, but we may see more ice than usual; more storms with mixed precipitation.

Windblown showers taper today with a welcome shortage of annoying storms from Wednesday into Sunday. The first official sub-freezing temperature of the season at MSP may comes Thursday or Friday; about 3 weeks later than average. Whatever that average is. Late week feels like October again, with 50s on tap this weekend, even a shot at 60F by Saturday.

Models bring a sloppy mix of rain and snow into Minnesota next Tuesday, followed by a cold slap. Expect 30s on Halloween. Scary indeed!
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Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Showers taper. Blustery. Winds: NW 20-45. High: 46.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Winds: WNW 15-30. Low: 34.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Less wind. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 48.

THURSDAY: First metro frost/freeze. Some sun. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 30. High: 47.

FRIDAY: More sun. Feels like October again. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 52.

SATURDAY: Sunny, breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 59.

SUNDAY: Clouds increase. Turning colder. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 46. High: 15.

MONDAY: Dry start. cold rain arrives late. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 35. High: 45.
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This Day in Weather History
October 22nd

1938: Sleet and wind cause damage along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border.

1913: Long Prairie receives a record low of 8 degrees F.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 22nd

Average High: 55F (Record: 81F set in 1992)
Average Low: 38F (Record: 20F set in 1936)

Record Rainfall: 0.69" set in 1957
Record Snowfall: 1.0" set in 1925
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 22nd

Sunrise: 7:37am
Sunset: 6:17pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 39 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 57 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 hours & 58 minutes
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Moon Phase for October 22nd at Midnight
1.8 Days After Last Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

"Before dawn on October 23 and 24, 2019, watch as the moon slides in front of the constellation Leo the Lion. Then, as the morning darkness begins to give way to dawn, watch for the planet Mars to climb above the sunrise point on the horizon. Leo’s starlit figurine will be found in the eastern (sunrise) direction, in the predawn sky, at which time Mars will still be beneath the eastern horizon. Mars will only come into view as dawn’s light begins to increase. See the chart at the bottom of this post. Leo is identifiable for the prominent backwards question mark pattern within it; this pattern is a well-known asterism, called The Sickle. Although the chart at top is especially designed for North America, you’ll see the moon in the vicinity of Regulus from around the world. Before dawn on these same dates in the world’s Eastern Hemisphere, you’ll see the moon offset farther westward (upward) relative to the backdrop stars of the zodiac than we do in North America. For your specific view, at your location on the globe, try Stellarium."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in October
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in October is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. Note that Minnesota typically sees only 1 tornado, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). By the way, the last October tornado in Minnesota was on October 11th, 2013 in Traverse county located in western MN. That tornado produced EF1 damage near Charlesville, MN.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,525 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 20th suggests that there have been a total of 1,540 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1273. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,819 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Tuesday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook for Tuesday, which shows cooler temps in the Central US behind a cool front that has been responsible for scattered showers and storms, some of which have been strong to severe with locally heavy rain. Note that high temps in California will be nearly +10F to +20F above average with highs in the 90s for some locations.
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
A large storm system located in the Central US will continue to slowly push east through midweek. The area of low pressure will lingering a little longer across the Upper Midwest with scattered showers and strong winds, while the cold front will move into the eastern US with a few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, another impulse will spread areas of rain and snow across the spine of the Rockies through midweek.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts eastern half of the nation and especially across the Gulf Coast States where several inches of rain can't be ruled out.
 
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"Some of the Best Shooting Stars of 2019 Are Coming — Here’s How to See Them"

"Thanks to Halley's Comet, it’s the annual peak of the Orionid meteor shower, one of the best times to see shooting stars in 2019. Space dust left in the solar system by Halley's Comet will slam into Earth’s atmosphere in the early hours of Tuesday morning as October’s second meteor shower peaks.  What is the Orionid meteor shower? Happening from October 2 through November 7, but peaking late Monday, October 21 in the early hours of Tuesday, October 22, the Orionid meteor shower is an annual event that brings between 20 and 40 visible shooting stars every hour."

See more from Travel and Leisure HERE:


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"What do we really need the Moon for?"

"The Moon is such a familiar presence in the sky that most of us take it for granted. But what if it wasn't where it is now? How would that affect life on Earth? Space scientist Dr Maggie Aderin-Pocock, an expert on the Moon, explores our intimate relationship with our planet’s rocky satellite. Besides orchestrating the tides, the Moon dictates the length of a day, the rhythm of the seasons and the very stability of Earth. Yet the Moon doesn’t stay still. In the past it was closer to the Earth and in the future it will be further away. It’s lucky that it is now perfectly placed to help sustain life. Using computer graphics to summon up great tides and set the Earth spinning on its side, Aderin-Pocock implores us to look at the Moon afresh: to see it not as an inert rock, but as a key player in the story of our planet’s past, present and future."

See more from BBC HERE:

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"The Potential of Green Urban Planning for Mental Health"

"There is no single solution to the world-wide epidemic of poor mental health; addressing its root causes—like poverty-triggered stress and social isolation—and choosing effective treatment for sufferers remains paramount. One way to potentially partly buffer against the effects of poor mental health is through contact with nature, including the green spaces within metropolises. This is an emerging area of research with plenty of unanswered questions attached, but there is a not-insignificant number of studies pointing to this being a measurable, important effect. “Green space is an agent of public health, one that can build and sustain mental wellbeing,” Jenny Roe, an environmental psychologist at the University of Virginia, told Earther. That’s why she’s part of a team that wants to not just quantify the effect that natural spaces have on mental health, but to also frame it in a way that forms part of designs for cities."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


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"Tiny particles lead to brighter clouds in the tropics"
 
"When clouds loft tropical air masses higher in the atmosphere, that air can carry up gases that form into tiny particles, starting a process that may end up brightening lower-level clouds, according to a CIRES-led study published today in Nature. Clouds alter Earth's radiative balance, and ultimately climate, depending on how bright they are. And the new paper describes a process that may occur over 40 percent of the Earth's surface, which may mean today's climate models underestimate the cooling impact of some clouds. "Understanding how these particles form and contribute to cloud properties in the tropics will help us better represent clouds in climate models and improve those models," said Christina Williamson, a CIRES scientist working in NOAA's Chemical Sciences Division and the paper's lead author."
 
 
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"Trees That Survived California Drought May Hold Clue To Climate Resilience"

"When California's historic five-year drought finally relented a few years ago the tally of dead trees in the Sierra Nevada was higher than almost anyone expected: 129 million. Most are still standing, the dry patches dotting the mountainsides. But some trees did survive the test of heat and drought. Now, scientists are racing to collect them, and other species around the globe, in the hope that these "climate survivors" have a natural advantage that will allow them to better cope with a warming world. On the north shore of Lake Tahoe, Patricia Maloney, a UC Davis forest and conservation biologist, hunts for these survivors. Most people focus on the dead trees, their brown pine needles obvious against the glittering blue of the lake. But Maloney tends not to notice them. "I look for the good," she says. "Like in people, you look for the good, not the bad. I do the same in forest systems."

See more from NPR HERE:

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"Scientists suggest creating a detailed 3D map of Earth before we mess everything up even more"

"Humans are affecting Earth’s climate, and there’s a wealth of scientific evidence to support that fact. We’ve already begun to see some seriously troubling trends that may be associated with our altering of the climate, including mass die-offs of ocean coral, widespread drought, and increasingly powerful and unpredictable storm systems. With all that in mind, scientists from Colorado State University are doing what they can to preserve a record of Earth before things too out of hand. It’s called The Earth Archive, and there’s a good reason why it should be a high priority. Researchers across all scientific fields have provided mankind with insights into the history of our planet, as well as the animals, plants, and civilizations that call it home. We’ve come a long way, but there’s still so much we don’t know about our planet’s history, and various climate-related factors put us at ever-greater risk of losing those discoveries forever."

See more from BGR HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Soggy Monday. Chilly November Gale on Tuesday

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From heavy rain to heavy snow next week?