EF0 Tornado in Atwater Minnesota - Friday Evening
 
According to the National Weather Service an EF0 tornado touched down in Atwater, MN on Friday evening with peak winds estimated at 80mph and tracked east along highway 12 for nearly 11 miles. 
Pockets of tree damage, an overturned trailer, and some other minor structural damage to sheds and pole barns resulted in the tornado damage. 
 
 
 
 

Somewhat Unsettled Sunday
 
We've had a few days of unsettled weather and since late last week, some folks have had quite a bit of rain. Sunday will feature more unsettled weather, but the best chance of storms looks to sag farther south.
 
 
High Temps Sunday

Sunday will be a fairly warm and sticky day across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to near 70F. Spotty showers and storms will ling across the region as well, but the heaviest and steadiest stuff should sag to the south a bit.
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
Here's a look at the weather as we head through the rest of weekend and into early next week. Scattered showers and storms will continue across the Upper Midwest on Sunday and our unsettled weather continues. Spotty strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out.
 
 
Rainfall Potential
 
NOAA's NDFD suggests heavy rainfall potential across much of central and southern Minnesota through the weekend and early next week. Several round of storms could produce up to 1" to 2" of rain in some spots. Localized flooding can't be ruled out, especially over southern Minnesota.
 
 
Severe Risk on Sunday & Monday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of strong to severe storms across parts of the state on Sunday and Monday. The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
 

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Extended Temperature Outlook
 
The extended forecast through mid August suggests much warmer weather moving in with highs approaching 90F several days as we head through the first full week of August. The GEFS forecast (top image) seems a little warmer than the ECMWF (bottom image), but both show warmer into August... get the ACs ready.
 
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Welcome to the Age of Turbocharged Weather
By Paul Douglas

"The single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood" wrote Douglas Adams. Our neighbors just texted us a photo of our Weber grill, which became airborne Friday evening, winding up in their window well.

I'm out east, celebrating my dad's 88th birthday, but we're stuck in the house. Over 10 inches of rain has fallen in recent days, cutting off roads.

In a warming climate the dries are getting drier - and the wets are trending wetter. Flooding is the costliest natural disaster in the USA.

Last year it accounted for $268 billion in damage; a number that has grown steadily in recent decades. What's changed? Slowing weather systems and stalled storms sparking more "inland flooding"; miles away from any stream or river. Not every day or every storm, but keep connecting the dots.

My drip dries are drooping. The sun peeks out Sunday, but more gangs of slow-moving storms return tonight and Monday. Dry weather lingers Tuesday into the weekend with a big warming trend. Expect upper 80s to near 90F by late week as Mother Nature embraces us in a warm, sticky hug. Cue the Dog Days!
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Sticky, Few T-storms. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 87.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and storms. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 67

MONDAY: T-storm risk, mainly southern MN. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 82.

TUESDAY: A well-earned sunny, dry day. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 84.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, no blobs on Doppler. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 87.

THURSDAY: Sticky sunshine, lake-worthy. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 89.

FRIDAY: Tropical humidity, isolated T-storm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 88.

SATURDAY: Hello Dog Days. Hot sunshine. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 69. High: 90.
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This Day in Weather History
August 5th

1904: A Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melts her hairpins and the steel in her corset, but does not kill her.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 5th

Average High: 82F (Record: 100F set in 1947)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1994)

Record Rainfall: 1.88" set in 1898
Record Snowfall: NONE
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 5th

Sunrise: 6:03am
Sunset: 8:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 31 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 31 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 1 hour and 6 Minutes
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Moon Phase for August 5th at Midnight
1.5 Days After Last Quarter

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Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, there is a wave of energy that has a low chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days. Stay tuned...
 
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Eastern Pacific Outlook
 
The NHC will continue issuing advisories for Hurricane Hector in the Eastern Pacific, which is the 8th named storm and the 4th hurricane of the season. There are also 3 other waves that the NHC is watching, 1 has now become Tropical Depression ELEVEN and the other 2 have a high chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days.
 
Tracking Hector
 
According to NOAA's NHC, Hector became a major hurricane and will continue to drift west over the next several days. Interestingly, Hector could get close to Hawaii by next week!
 
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Tropical Climatology
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in the early part of August. Note that in the Atlantic, we start seeing more activity in the Central Atlantic and near the Cape Verge Islands off the western tip of Africa.
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Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season

According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that activity (on average) in late June and early July remains pretty tame. Things really start to heat up in August and September though!
 

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2018 Lightning Fatalities - FIFTEEN

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 15 people have died from lightning; 12 have been males and only 3 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 232 males have died, while only 64 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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Average Tornadoes in August By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of August by state. Florida sees the most with 7, while Minnesota averages 5 tornadoes. During the dog days of Summer, the tornado count typically fades across the nation.

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain from far eastern Oklahoma eastward to Tennessee, and far northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, Mon-Tue, Aug 6-7.
2.) Heavy rain from northeast Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Aug 8-9.
3.) Heavy rain for the southern Alaska coast from about Whittier to Glacier Bay, Tue-Wed, Aug 7-8.
4.) Excessive heat for the northern Intermountain region and northern Rockies, Tue-Fri, Aug 7-10.
5.) Flooding remains possible over the mid-Atlantic.
6.) Flooding is occurring in west-central Florida.
7.) Slight risk of excessive heat for interior northern California, northern and central portions of the Intermountain Region, the northern Rockies, and the northern High Plains, Sat-Sun, Aug 11-12.
8.) Slight risk of heavy rain for the desert Southwest, Sat-Fri, Aug 11-17.
9.) Slight risk of heavy rain for central and eastern portions of Texas, Sat-Mon, Aug 11-13.
10.) Severe Drought across the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and Southern Rockies, the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.

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 Temperature Anomaly on Saturday

The temperature anomaly across North America on Saturday showed temperatures well above average across the Southwest US and across the Dakotas. Meanwhile, the southern US was dealing with cooler than average temps, which at this time of the year is pretty comfortable.

Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature anomaly as we head through the first weekend of August. Warmer temps will continue through the weekend across the Upper Midwest, but cooler reading will return early next. 

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Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows active weather continuing in the Central US through the rest of the weekend and into early next week with areas of locally heavy rain and possibly a few strong to severe storms. Spotty storms will be possible across the Eastern US and especially in the Northeast.

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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain across the Southern and Eastern US with several inches of rain possible as we head into the first part of August. Lingering showers and storms over the Midwest could bring several inches of precipitation there as well.


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US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from July 24th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and for a few areas in the Central and Southern Plains. The good news is that the Monsoon season continues in the Southwest, so some locations should continue to see improvement there. 

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, August 12th - 18th will be warmer than average across much of the northern US, but it'll be cooler than average across the Southern US and Alaska.

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"Extreme heat waves will kill more people by 2080, study suggests"
 
"Deaths from extreme heatwaves will increase dramatically by 2080 if humans are unable to adapt as temperatures rise around the world due to global warming, a new study suggests. Researchers from Monash University in Australia said the uptick in deaths will start in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, before moving to Australia, Europe and the United States. Researchers in the study created a model to estimate the number of deaths from heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries between 2031 to 2080. Projections used different scenarios such as levels of greenhouse gas emissions, preparedness and adaption strategies and population density. The study found under the worst-case scenario in Australia, deaths from heat waves in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne will surge 471 percent compared to the period between 1971 and 2010."
 
 
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"How to use AC without breaking the bank (and ruining the Earth) this summer"
 
"The world is facing an environmental paradox. It’s really, really hot outside. Temperatures in Paris this summer have climbed to nearly 100 degrees Fahrenheit. A city in Japan just recorded its first 106 degree day. Multiple cities in California are reaching the 110s and above. And this extreme heat, which is intensified by human-caused global warming, is driving those with air conditioning to push their machines to the limit. So even though it might be harming us in the long run, we need air conditioning. We just have to be responsible about it. In light of those facts — and the heat outside — what can we do about it?"
 
 
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"Your Viewing Guide To The Best Meteor Shower In Years: 2018's Perseids"
 
"When it comes to meteor showers, we have these dazzling pictures in our minds of seeing streaks of light appear all over the sky: rapidly, brightly, and profusely. Yet in real life, many of us have had experiences that pale in comparison, where we might spend an entire hour outside only to see five (or even fewer) faint meteors. Unless conditions are really right, meteor showers can be a tremendous disappointment. But during the peak of this year's Perseids, from August 10-13, you'll have a chance to see the best meteor shower in years. They should be rapid, bright, and relatively frequent. And most importantly, the skies should cooperate. Here's the science of how it works, and what you should do to make the most of it."
 
 
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"California is heading toward a future with more fires, more floods"
 
"What we’re seeing now is only going to get worse, according to experts. California’s recent temperatures have crushed decades-long records, reaching 120 degrees Fahrenheit in Chino and 111 degrees in LA last month alone. While the temperatures may have stunned residents, there’s one group that isn’t surprised: climate scientists predicted everything from the blistering heat and blazing fires to the state’s massive power outages more than a decade ago. In recent years, they say, we’ve seen a climate that’s a harbinger of what’s to come for California: an increasingly volatile landscape ridden with worsening floods and wildfires, like the recent Carr fire that destroyed and damaged more than 1,000 homes. “The trends that we’re seeing — and the predictions that were made — were called three decades ago,” says Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford University geoscientist. He adds that expert predictions for the future suggest that the climate extremes of California’s past five or six years are “indicative of what the future will hold.”
 
 
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"The Most Polluted Cities In the U.S."
 
"Nearly 134 million Americans, (41%) live in counties that got at least one "F" for unhealthy air, and have unhealthful levels of either ozone or particle pollution, according to the American Lung Association. With record-setting heat in 2016, many cities across the U.S. experienced more days when ground-level ozone, (smog) reached unhealthy levels, the ALA reports in its annual State of the Air 2018 report. Most at risk to the dangers of air pollution are children and adults over 65, and people with asthma or other chronic lung disease, cardiovascular disease or diabetes. Ozone and particle pollution are also both linked to increased risk of lower birth weight in newborns, the report says. Despite the increase in ozone, the report indicates that actions taken under the Clean Air Act continue to clean up pollution in much of the nation since it was enacted in 1970. The best progress came in the continued reduction of year-round particle pollution, due to cleaner power plants and increased use of cleaner vehicles and engines. Continued progress to cleaner air remains crucial to reduce the risk of premature death, asthma attacks and lung cancer, the report states, and as climate change continues, cleaning up these pollutants will become more challenging. According to the American Lung Association, these are the cities with the worst air pollution."
 
 
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"How Record Heat Wreaked Havoc on Four Continents"
 
"We talked to people who found themselves on the front lines of climate change this year. Here are their stories. Expect more. That’s the verdict of climate scientists to the record-high temperatures this spring and summer in vastly different climate zones. The contiguous United States had its hottest month of May and the third-hottest month of June. Japan was walloped by record triple-digit temperatures, killing at least 86 people in what its meteorological agency bluntly called a “disaster.” And weather stations logged record-high temperatures on the edge of the Sahara and above the Arctic Circle. Is it because of climate change? Scientists with the World Weather Attribution project concluded in a study released Friday that the likelihood of the heat wave currently baking Northern Europe is “more than two times higher today than if human activities had not altered climate.” While attribution studies are not yet available for other record-heat episodes this year, scientists say there’s little doubt that the ratcheting up of global greenhouse gases makes heat waves more frequent and more intense."
 

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"Another El Nino is likely on its way: Here's what to expect"
 
"Experts say the weather event is not expected to be as bad as 2015-2016. Fires north of the Arctic Circle. Record-setting temperatures in England. More than 60 dead in Japan and 70 in Quebec due to heat-related causes. A fast-moving fire that wiped out an entire Greek town, killing more than 90 people. At the moment, drought and fire are ravaging much of the planet. This past June was the fifth warmest June on record, and the 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average. And the turbulent weather could continue, as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 per cent chance of another El Nino occurring this winter. El Nino is part of Earth's natural process, characterized by a warming in the Pacific Ocean with repercussions across the globe, including higher temperatures and greater precipitation in various regions."
 
 
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"How Climate Change Contributed to This Summer’s Wildfires"
 
"The image of the day from nasa’s Earth Observatory shows gusting plumes of smoke veiling the western United States. Two hundred thousand acres are on fire in California, fuelled by strong winds and unrelenting hot, dry conditions. The Carr Fire, in Redding, a hundred and sixty miles north of Sacramento, has incinerated over a thousand structures, most of them people’s homes. Forty thousand people have been evacuated, and six have died. The fire is so large—more than a hundred and ten thousand acres—that it has created its own weather system, making it difficult for firefighters to predict what it will do next.“We have seen extremely explosive fire behavior on this particular fire,” Chris Anthony, a division chief with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said. “But it’s not unique anymore to what we are seeing on fires in California.” Climate change is slow until it’s terrifyingly fast."
 
 

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"6 Things About Weather Forecasts And Warnings That People Might Always Struggle With"
 
"Through my lens as a professor and former president of the American Meteorological Society, I know the weather enterprise has developed significant scientific capacity enabling better forecasts and warnings. Yeah, yeah, yeah...we hear the "it must be nice to have a job where you can be wrong all of the time." As I have written before, such statements are often rooted in misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the way forecasts are communicated. Meteorologists and social scientists struggle to understand why a duck boat operator would go on the water with a storm clearly approaching or a person would drive into a flooded road. These 6 things about the public might always create challenges with weather forecasts and warnings no matter what we do."
 
 
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"Earth, It Has Been Hot"
 
"Folks, climate change is still out here messing things up. It brings me no pleasure to report this. For 28 years running, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has put together its State of the Climate Report. More than 500 scientists from 65 countries contributed to this year’s edition, which was released on Wednesday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. All that brain power reached a wholly unsurprising conclusion: The climate is a goddamn mess. Last year was the third hottest year on record despite a weak La Niña cooling the tropical Pacific for part of the year. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have never been higher in human history. Sea levels also reached new heights, Arctic sea ice was in the gutter, and the upper ocean has never stored this much heat in recorded history. The findings are based on research and analysis that has already dribbled out since the calendar turned to 2018, but the new report collates all of it. Despite all this information being widely known, seeing all the planetary mayhem created by rising carbon emissions is still a bit of a shock. Hell, I read or wrote about most of this stuff, and I’m still floored."
 
 
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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A Few Storms Possible Monday In Southern Minnesota - Approaching 90 By Midweek