Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

Back to School; Nothing Rough

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: September 1, 2014 - 7:46 PM


Back to School
By Todd Nelson

While some schools have already settled in to a daily routine, most will be just getting underway today. Morning commutes will be a little more hectic as you follow around those yellow school buses making frequent stops. With that said, as the sun angle gets a little lower every morning, it'll be a little harder to see any youngsters darting across the road to catch the bus... Take it slow and pay attention!

On Monday, we welcomed Meteorological Fall, which marks the date when the warmest 3 months (on average) are behind us. The Autumnal Equinox is quickly approaching too; only 3 weeks away! Get this, we've lost nearly 2 hours and 20 minutes since the Summer Solstice and we'll lose yet another hour or so by the Equinox on the 22nd!

Our average high dips below 70F by the end of the month, so changes happen quickly...

While I hate saying goodbye to my garden and summer pools, I have come to realize that Fall is one of my favorite times of the year for other reasons. Lower humidity, less bugs and enjoying those brilliant fall colors on crisp mornings with a steaming hot cup of joe! MN has a lot to offer with the changing season, but blink & it's gone!

==================

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 55. High: 78. Winds: SW 5-10

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, still quiet. Low: 62.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer and stickier, fading sunshine with PM Storms. Dew point: 70. High: 84

THURSDAY: Breezy and unsettled with spotty storms. Dew point: 68. Wake-up: 71. High: 82.

FRIDAY: Cooling trend, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 59. High: 72

SATURDAY: Sunny, hint of Fall in the air. Dew point: 47. Wake-up: 54. High: 70

SUNDAY: AM light jackets, PM sunglasses. Wake-up: 53. High: 73

MONDAY: More clouds with scattered PM storms. Wake-up: 58. High: 75.

=====================

This Day in Weather History
September 2nd

1996: Approximately 8" of rain fell over 2 1/2 hour period in the Mankato area resulting in flash flooding. Numerous road were closed, basements flooded and $100,000 of damage from a lightning strike in Lehiller.

1992: Severe weather affected several counties in the western parts of the County Warning Area. Several tornadoes were reported along with 3/4 inch hail and damaging winds as the system passed through Pope, Swift, Stearns, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Brown and Renville Counties.

1975: Severe weather rolled through Stevens, Swift, Kandiyohi, and Meeker counties. 1.50 inch Hail was reported in Stevens and Swift. An F1 tornado also occurred in Swift at the time that the hail was reported. An hour later another F1 Tornado was reported in Kandiyohi County while 69 knot winds occurred in Meeker County. Damages were estimated at $50,000 for the two tornadoes that touched down.

1937: Severe thunderstorms over northern Minnesota, with 4.61 inches of rain dumped on Pokegama. Flooding was reported in Duluth.

=======================

Average High/Low For MSP
September 2nd

Average High: 77F (Record 97 set in 1937)
Average Low: 58F (Record 42 set in 1974)

========================

Sunrise/Sunset Times
September 2nd

Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 7:48pm

=========================

Moon Phase for September 2nd at Midnight
0.2 Days Before First Quarter

=================================

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

As we head back to the grind after the long Labor Day weekend, weather conditions will be rather quiet. However, a storm system moves in by midweek with more summer humidity and storms. Post front, we see a rather significant drop in temps and humidity by the upcoming weekend. In fact, there will be a hint of Fall in the air!

================================

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Tuesday looks rather pleasant as a few lingering showers drift east along the northeastern part of the state through the day. We warm up close to 80F in the southwestern part of the state with highs in lower 70s across the northern part of the state.

Weather Outlook (AM Monday - AM Wednesday)

The loops below show the simulated radar and accumulated precipitation potential from AM Monday through PM Wednesday. There will be a few spotty showers across the northern part of the state on Tuesday, while the next best chace of heavier rain/thunder moves in by midweek.

Weather Outlook

It'll be a fairly quiet start as we head back to work, but the next storm that rolls in by midweek bring a chance of showers and storms.

Severe Threat Wednesday

Our next chance of showers and storm by midweek brings with it a chance of strong to possibly severe storms. stay tuned!

Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Happy Labor Day! Weather Gets Happier/Drier/Sunnier by PM Hours

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 31, 2014 - 5:06 PM

Most Underrated Month?

"By all these lovely tokens September days are here, with summer's best of weather and autumn's best of cheer" said Helen Hunt Jackson. Not that it matters but this may be my favorite month of the year.

Think about it: summer's frantic 90-day spasm of over-scheduling is over - the air still mild; lakes warm enough for one last dip. Tornadoes are rare, a cooling atmosphere sparks lazy clouds: wisps of dense fog.

NOAA data shows September is nearly as sunny as July & August, 1-inch rains half as common as June. The air has roughly half as much water floating overhead as early July; crisp and clean most of the month. Even the mosquitoes seem to get the hint. Summer's September encore is nature's last standing ovation and I'm a raucous fan.

No need to water the yard anytime soon after last night's noisy soaking. Showers give way to some afternoon sun; the weather getting better as today goes on. Not a perfect Labor Day but we've seen worse. The next chance of thunder comes Thursday with a heat spike; highs may brush 90F before tumbling to more comfortable levels late week. You may have to pull out a sweatshirt next weekend.

In 2014 weather is on a time-delay; everything is coming later. I suspect a warmer than average September.

* File photo of Minnesota's BWCA courtesy of Steve Burns Photography.


Labor Day Details. European guidance shows a risk of morning and midday showers, but winds switching around to the west/northwest should pull drier, more stable air into MSP by afternoon with dew points falling from mid 60s into the low 50s by evening. The odds of seeing the sun increase as the day goes on.


Future Radar. 4 KM NAM guidance shows the showers and T-storms that rumbled across the area late yesterday and overnight; a few stragglers this morning then drying out later in the day with enough sun for highs in the upper 70s. Loop: NOAA and HAMweather.


Big Swings. We cool off and dry out today, a beautiful Tuesday giving way to a quick midweek hot front; some guidance hints at upper 80s to near 90F by Thursday with a few T-storms late Wednesday into Thursday. And then a more September-like airmass comes south for late week. ECMWF data may be overdoing the cooling a bit, but temperatures may struggle to reach 70F in the metro Friday into Sunday with 60-degree highs up north.


Traditional Peak of Hurricane Season Off To A Slow Start. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks September 10, the day a landfalling hurricane is most likely to strike the USA. But things remain strangely quiet in the Atlantic and Carribean, and the short-term forecast is for more of the same. Here's a clip from a story at Florida Today: "...But on Aug. 27, a forecast team at Colorado State University released a two-week forecast of hurricane activity through Sept. 10, predicting below average activity. The team tries to predict what they call the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. That’s all the named storms’ maximum wind speeds for each six-hour period of the storms that happen over the two-week prediction period. They say the two weeks ending Sept. 10 will bring less than 70 percent of the average ACE..."


Drought Forces Big Changes Among California Growers. If the drought continues we will all be paying significantly higher prices for many vegetables. Here's an excerpt of a good summary of what growers are doing to try and deal with historic drought at The Seattle Times: "...Such crop switching is one sign of a sweeping transformation going on in California — the nation’s biggest agricultural state by value — driven by a three-year drought that climate scientists say is a glimpse of a drier future. The result will affect everything from the price of milk in China to the source of cherries eaten by Americans. It has already inflamed competition for water between farmers and homeowners..."

Photo credit above: "Volunteers deliver cases of water to homes in East Porterville, Calif., Friday, Aug. 22, 2014. Nearly 1,000 people whose wells have gone dry due to drought received an emergency allotment of bottled water Friday." (AP Photo/The Porterville Recorder, Chieko Hara)


Swirls of Dust and Drama, Punctuating Life in the Southwest. With all apologies to my TV meteorology friend in Phoenix, haboobs are a clear and present danger, especially during the summer months. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "The best way to explain a haboob is to say it is a tsunami of sand, in the sense that there is no stopping it or outrunning it. It is a supreme spectacle. The fierce winds that precede it make the leaves on palm trees stand as if they are hands waving an effusive goodbye, the sky darkens and the world takes the color of caramel as the dust swallows everything in its path..."


Why You Need To Stop Checking Your Phone All The Time. Here's a snippet from an essay at MindBodyGreen that caught my eye. She's right: "...I do my best to put the phone away when spending quality time with others, but because we all live in the same world and we all use these devices, we all have the same strange addiction to them. We’re tolerant of each other as we communicate with everyone else but the ones we’re with. Beyond the very basic tenants of memory we used to hold so dear (remembering phone numbers, addresses, birthdays and details of loved ones, etc.), lies a direct correlation between how much we use our brains and how much we substitute them with our phones..."


LABOR DAY: AM showers, slow PM clearing. Winds: West 10. High: 77

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy, more comfortable. Low: 58

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 55. High: 79

WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, storms at night. Wake-up: 62. High: 84

THURSDAY: Hot & sticky. Few T-storms. Dew point: 70. Wake-up: 72. High: near 90

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, cooling off. Wake-up: 62. High: 71

SATURDAY: Sunny and beautiful. Dew point: 42. Wake-up: 55. High: 70

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, hints of fall. Wake-up: 56. High: 72

* File photo above: Brad Birkholz.


Climate Stories...

David Hastings: What I didn't Say to Gov. Scott About Climate Change. Here's a clip of an Op-Ed at The Tampa Tribune: "...The governor’s office should embrace a transparent process to develop and implement a state plan to reduce carbon pollution. Florida should:

♦  Phase out coal-burning power plants. Many of these plants are inefficient, and they are the biggest source of human CO2 emissions.

♦  Ramp up energy efficiency. It is the fastest and cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions. Setting meaningful efficiency goals for big utilities will save communities money and reduce harmful emissions of heat-trapping gases..."


Climate Change Critics Want Data, Then Ignore It. An Op-Ed in the Union-Bulletin summed up something I've personally experienced, especially as it relates to the so-called "pause" in warming. Over 90% of the additional warming is going into the world's oceans - it's not a model, actual deep ocean temperature increases have been observed. Here's an excerpt: "...The longer-term trend, averaged over many cycles, is for unremitting increases in temperature. The effects of deeper layers of the oceans periodically absorbing heat isn’t sustainable and may itself upset oceanic currents that moderate temperatures around the globe. Scientists acknowledge the need for more data and improvements in their analytic methods. But, it is disingenuous of critics to ask for data, and then ignore what they are shown. They have no data themselves and their armchair methods aren’t likely to produce any."


Athabasca Glacier: A Tragic Vanishing Act. Here's the introduction to a story at Skeptical Science and Critical Angle: "The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It’s just a few hundred metres’ stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem is, the stroll keeps getting longer by about 10 metres every year. Since 1992, the snout of the glacier has retreated about 200 metres, requiring tourists anxious to set foot on the glacier to walk a little further. The glacier has lost about 2 km of its length since 1844 (Geovista PDF)..."

Photo credit above: "The Athabasca Glacier seen from the access trail. This point is about halfway from the parking lot and the current snout of the glacier, which is about 200 metres away. In the centre background is the ice-fall from the Columbia Icefield.  The marker shows where the glacier snout was in 1992, coincidentally the year of the Rio Earth Summit. It is just possible to make out some people walking on the glacier on the left-hand side."


Beachfront in the Time of Climate Change. The Atlantic's Citylab has a poignant article of what we will soon miss; here's an excerpt: "...But this year, as everybody packs up and heads back to school in the ritual of Labor Day Weekend, there’s something sinister about being near the water. It’s an end-of-days feeling, the grim reality that, because of climate change, these places are going to be very different in 30 to 50 years. Vast acreage will be inundated. Many of the most sought-after houses on the coastline will be erased from the landscape..." (Photo credit: author Anthony Flint).


Managing Coasts Under Threat from Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. Is there an orderly, methodical way to gradually retreat from the oceans? Here's a clip from a story at phys.org: "...The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realize the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapth, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinization, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communties," said Dr. Brown..."


1 in 4 Republicans Say Global Warming is a Major Threat. The Daily Caller has highlights of a recent Pew research study.


As Louisiana Sinks and Sea Levels Rise, The State is Drowning. Fast. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post that caught my eye: "...In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy. And it’s going to get worse, even quicker. Scientists now say one of the greatest environmental and economic disasters in the nation’s history is rushing toward a catastrophic conclusion over the next 50 years, so far unabated and largely unnoticed..."

Animation credit: From Bob Marshall, The Lens, Brian Jacobs and Al Shaw, ProPublica:


Why Climate Change Won't Intensify Extreme Snowstorms. The most intense snowstorms may shift north over time, which isn't surprising in a slowly warming world. Here's an excerpt from Live Science and Yahoo News: "...The study revealed little change in the intensity of major snowstorms in wintry regions. In areas where winter temperatures hover near the snow "sweet spot," the heaviest snowstorms became only eight percent less intense. The higher latitudes will shift the other way, with 10 percent more snow during extreme events, O'Gorman found. In regions where there is usually little snowfall, there will be fewer days with history-making storms..."


Does Antarctic Sea Ice Growth Negate Climate Change? Scientists Say No. Here's a clip from a good explanation of what's really happening at the bottom of the world from The Los Angeles Times: "...Scientists say sea ice and continental ice are probably responding to the same forces — namely, changes in ocean circulation and winds. However, they also influence each other. Sea ice helps buffer ice shelves, the floating tongues of glacial ice that dam the ice sheets and keep them from spilling irreversibly into the sea. It also keeps warm ocean waters trapped beneath a frozen lid, insulating the ice sheet from their destructive heat..."

Photo credit above: "Ice off Antarctica's Alexander Island. This year, Antarctic sea ice has expanded its frigid reach with unprecedented speed, setting records in June and July." (Eye Ubiquitous / UIG).

Sunday Super Soakers - Significant Severe Risk Later

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 30, 2014 - 5:11 PM

A Local Touch

It's been said that all weather, like politics, is local. You tend to care about what's outside your window, not weather building 90 miles up the road.

Meteorologists factor local conditions into their forecasts, like proximity to water, hills and the urban heat island. And they all think THEIR town's weather is the hardest on Earth to predict. I ask a buddy in Phoenix at a local station "What do you do all day?" He gets indignant. "It's harder than it looks, Paul. We get summer monsoon storms and massive haboobs, giant sandstorms that come on with little warning". Uh huh. He also told me that management told him not to use the word "hot" in the 7-Day. Apparently it agitates the locals and scares the tourists.

"Very warm with a high of 113!"

Sticky sun gives way to a rare severe storm outbreak later today. Hail, isolated tornadoes and a possible MCS squall line may form by the dinner hour. Go jump in a lake before 3 PM but keep an eye on the western sky.

Labor Day gets off to a damp start but the sun comes out by midday with a welcome dip in dew point. Not bad for a holiday.

80s return by midweek with signs of a more September-like airmass sweeping into Minnesota by late in the week.


Swirls of Dust and Drama, Punctuating Life in the Southwest. With all apologies to my TV meteorology friend in Phoenix, haboobs are a clear and present danger, especially during the summer months. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "The best way to explain a haboob is to say it is a tsunami of sand, in the sense that there is no stopping it or outrunning it. It is a supreme spectacle. The fierce winds that precede it make the leaves on palm trees stand as if they are hands waving an effusive goodbye, the sky darkens and the world takes the color of caramel as the dust swallows everything in its path..."


Significant Severe Threat. A slight risk of severe storms extends from Minnesota and western Wisconsin into Iowa, eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas later today; the greatest potential for damaging hail and a few isolated tornadoes over western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, from roughly Des Moines to Omaha. I wouldn't be surprised to see NOAA SPC elevate the risk to moderate for some of these areas.


Tornado Potential Index. Ham Weather's proprietary TPI shows a strong risk of severe storms between 4 PM and 10 PM from Omaha and Des Moines into southeastern Minnesota and the St. Croix River Valley. Although the greatest potential for damaging winds and hail will stay south of Minnesota I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple of smaller EF-0 or EF-1 tornadoes over east central and southeastern Minnesota by the dinner hour.


Sunday Super-Soakers. The 4 KM NAM prints out some excessive 2-5" rainfall amounts just south of the metro area by tonight as cooler air sparks a series of squall lines, even a slight chance of an MCS (meso-convective) system flaring up later, especially south of the Minnesota River Valley where dew points are highest. 60-hour rainfall accumulation amounts courtesy of NOAA and HAMweather.


Irritable Sunday - Slow Improvement on Labor Day. Strong to severe storms are likely later today across much of the state, but a wind shift to the west/northwest pushes drier, more stable air back into town tomorrow. I still expect a wet start, but partial clearing is expected by midday with enough sun for mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. We warm up again by midweek, before a more September-like airmass arrives by Sunday. Graphic: Weatherspark.


TODAY: Sticky sun, severe storms later? Dew point: 68. Winds: S 15+ HIgh: 83

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms likely, some strong to potentially severe. Low: 66

LABOR DAY: Wet start. Slow clearing, less humid. Dew point: 54. High: 79

TUESDAY: Some sun, pop up PM T-shower possible. Wake-up: 59. High: 78

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and warmer again. Wake-up: 61. High: 82

THURSDAY: Less sun, few T-storms. Dew point: 70. Wake-up: 67. High: 85

FRIDAY: Clearing, drop in dew point. DP: 49. Wake-up: 60. High: 76

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, pleasant. DP: 52. Wake-up: 54. High: 75

* lightning photo credit: AJ Pena.


Climate Stories...

Athabasca Glacier: A Tragic Vanishing Act. Here's the introduction to a story at Skeptical Science and Critical Angle: "The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It’s just a few hundred metres’ stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem is, the stroll keeps getting longer by about 10 metres every year. Since 1992, the snout of the glacier has retreated about 200 metres, requiring tourists anxious to set foot on the glacier to walk a little further. The glacier has lost about 2 km of its length since 1844 (Geovista PDF)..."

Photo credit above: "The Athabasca Glacier seen from the access trail. This point is about halfway from the parking lot and the current snout of the glacier, which is about 200 metres away. In the centre background is the ice-fall from the Columbia Icefield.  The marker shows where the glacier snout was in 1992, coincidentally the year of the Rio Earth Summit. It is just possible to make out some people walking on the glacier on the left-hand side."


Beachfront in the Time of Climate Change. The Atlantic's Citylab has a poignant article of what we will soon miss; here's an excerpt: "...But this year, as everybody packs up and heads back to school in the ritual of Labor Day Weekend, there’s something sinister about being near the water. It’s an end-of-days feeling, the grim reality that, because of climate change, these places are going to be very different in 30 to 50 years. Vast acreage will be inundated. Many of the most sought-after houses on the coastline will be erased from the landscape..." (Photo credit: author Anthony Flint).


Managing Coasts Under Threat from Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. Is there an orderly, methodical way to gradually retreat from the oceans? Here's a clip from a story at phys.org: "...The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realize the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapth, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinization, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communties," said Dr. Brown..."


1 in 4 Republicans Say Global Warming is a Major Threat. The Daily Caller has highlights of a recent Pew research study.


As Louisiana Sinks and Sea Levels Rise, The State is Drowning. Fast. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post that caught my eye: "...In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy. And it’s going to get worse, even quicker. Scientists now say one of the greatest environmental and economic disasters in the nation’s history is rushing toward a catastrophic conclusion over the next 50 years, so far unabated and largely unnoticed..."

Animation credit: From Bob Marshall, The Lens, Brian Jacobs and Al Shaw, ProPublica:


Why Climate Change Won't Intensify Extreme Snowstorms. The most intense snowstorms may shift north over time, which isn't surprising in a slowly warming world. Here's an excerpt from Live Science and Yahoo News: "...The study revealed little change in the intensity of major snowstorms in wintry regions. In areas where winter temperatures hover near the snow "sweet spot," the heaviest snowstorms became only eight percent less intense. The higher latitudes will shift the other way, with 10 percent more snow during extreme events, O'Gorman found. In regions where there is usually little snowfall, there will be fewer days with history-making storms..."


Does Antarctic Sea Ice Growth Negate Climate Change? Scientists Say No. Here's a clip from a good explanation of what's really happening at the bottom of the world from The Los Angeles Times: "...Scientists say sea ice and continental ice are probably responding to the same forces — namely, changes in ocean circulation and winds. However, they also influence each other. Sea ice helps buffer ice shelves, the floating tongues of glacial ice that dam the ice sheets and keep them from spilling irreversibly into the sea. It also keeps warm ocean waters trapped beneath a frozen lid, insulating the ice sheet from their destructive heat..."

Photo credit above: "Ice off Antarctica's Alexander Island. This year, Antarctic sea ice has expanded its frigid reach with unprecedented speed, setting records in June and July." (Eye Ubiquitous / UIG).

The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realise the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapt, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinisation, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communities," said Dr Brown.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-08-coasts-threat-climate-sea-level.html#jCp

Lingering Clouds Saturday, Severe Storms PM Sunday

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 29, 2014 - 8:26 PM

Summer's Last Gasp
By Todd Nelson

"Yesterday's history, tomorrow's a mystery, today is a gift!"

This Labor Day weekend will be a memorable one for us in the Nelson household as we will be sending our oldest off to kindergarten in a few days. The sign on the school says "Welcome class of 2027" - GULP! I think I remember watching movies back in the day that had us driving flying cars at that point.

It has been a somewhat soggy go of things over the past couple of days. There will be a few lingering puddles on Saturday, but the weather will be fair for the Fair. It'll still be a bit muggy, but lingering clouds with peeks of sun shouldn't have any impact on your food consumption.

We warm up Sunday ahead of a developing storm system that could bring strong to severe storms close to home by late afternoon/evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of Minnesota under an enhanced thunderstorm risk, so stay tuned to weather maps near you.

Summer's last gasp quickly moves out by the start of Meteorological Fall on Monday. Other than having to tiptoe over a few puddles filled with remnant somethings on a stick, you should have no problem looking for some last minute deals -Todd Nelson

=================

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low: 64

SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 64. High: 78

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, quiet. Low: 63.

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. High: 85

LABOR DAY: AM puddles. Sunny and less humid. Wake-up: 66. High: 78

TUESDAY: Back to school. Average for early September. Wake-up: 59. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Few afternoon clouds, still dry. Wake-up: 59. High: 79

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds, growing PM thunder risk. Wake-up: 61. High: 83

FRIDAY: Unsettled. Scattered T-Storms. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.

================

This Day in Weather History
August 30th

1977: Flooding on the southwest side of the Twin Cities, with the international airport getting 7.28 inches of rain in 4 1/2 hours.

===============

Average High/Low for MSP
August 30th

Average High: 78F (Record 96F set in 1941)
Average Low: 59F (Record 45 set in 1974)

================

Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 30th

Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:53pm

================

Moon Phase for August 30th at Midnight
2.2 Days Before First Quarter

========================

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Meteorological Fall starts Monday, September 1st. That means the warmest 3 months (on average) for the northern hemisphere will be behind us. Looking ahead to the early part of September, there could be a bigger cool down headed our way by late next week/first weekend of September. In the meantime, temperatures through the weekend look to stay slightly above average with a bit more humidity.

Allergy Alert

According to Pollen.com - this weekend could be a rough one for seasonal allergy sufferers. Sunday, pollen levels look to spike considerably, but it doesn't look much better on Labor Day Monday.

Saturday Weather Oultook

We'll see improving weather conditions on Saturday. There could be a few leftover puddles and lingering showers in the early part of the day, but the sun should break out with highs approaching 80 by the afternoon. In my opinion, Saturday looks like the better Fair day.

Saturday Rainfall Potential

Here's the national rainfall forecast from AM Saturday through AM Sunday. Note the larger swath of rainfall from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, this is the rainfall threat we endured Friday. Saturday looks to be the drier day of the weekend as Friday's rain moves east, however there is another system moving in for Sunday.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Sunday will start off dry, but it'll quickly get warm and more humid as our next storm system approaches. There is a growing thunderstorm risk by late afternoon/evening across western MN that could wind up rolling into the Twin Cities by the evening/overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of Minnesota under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for PM Sunday... Stay tuned!

Sunday Severe Risk

Here's the latest from NOAA's SPC regarding Sunday's severe weather potential:

SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFLUENT ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE QUITE A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ND/NRN MN BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY POST-FRONTAL BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS MN...THEN PROGRESSIVELY SW ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NEB INTO KS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WHEN SHEAR/LLJ INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT WAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.

See more from NOAA's SPC HERE:

Sunday Rainfall Potential

Sunday's storm chance will not only bring us a strong to severe weather threat, but there will be some hefty rainfall totals possible as well. According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall potential from AM Sunday to AM Monday could bring 1" of rain or more across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Weather Outlook

It's pretty easy to see the two different storms systems that we'll be dealing with over the weekend. One moving east of us by Saturday, while the second one will be moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday. That second one is the one that could bring strong to severe storms close to home.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin still looks to stay fairly quiet over the next 5 days. There are only 2 weak disturbances that have only a low chance of further development.

Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX


 

Soggy Start to Friday, Lingering Storms

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 28, 2014 - 10:11 PM

Alter Ego
By Todd Nelson

Most of the time I feel like Dopey from the Seven Dwarves, but lately I'm feeling a little more like Sneezy. AAACHOOO!

It never fails; right around State Fair time, I get bit by the allergy bug. I don't want to wish ill will on anything, but I hope that ragweed gets blasted by a big cold front in September... not sure how much longer I can take this.

Meteorological Summer will conclude this Sunday, meaning the 3 warmest months (on average) will be behind us. Keep in mind that we've only seen two 90 degree days this summer, which is nearly 8 to 9 days below average! Despite the recent EF-O tornado near Gilman, MN on Sunday, we've only seen 23 tornadoes this year. According to NOAA's NCDC, the annual average number of tornadoes in Minnesota is 45.

Looking ahead, the severe threat may be increasing as a stronger cold front pushes through the state on Sunday. This will bring another round of heavy rain to parts of the Midwest, but drier weather moves in quickly for Labor Day. The early part of September looks to start off on a cooler note with highs in the mid/upper 70s. In a few months we'll all likely forget what 70s felt like, so enjoy it now!

AAACHOO!!

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THURSDAY NIGHT: More showers, possible thunder. Low: 65

FRIDAY: Lingering showers. Partly soggy. Skies dry out late. High: 80 Winds: SW 5mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low: 64

SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 62. High: 80

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. Wake-up: 64. High: 84

LABOR DAY: Clearing trend, not as muggy. Wake-up: 66. High: 79

TUESDAY: Back to school. Spotty PM T-Shower. Wake-up: 58. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Quiet. Cool breeze. Wake-up: 58. High: 78

THURSDAY: Warmer, slightly more humid. Wake-up: 59. High: 80

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This Day in Weather History
August 29th

1948: An airliner crashed during a thunderstorm near Winona, killing 37 people on board.

1863: A devastating killing frost affected most of Minnesota, killing vines and damaging corn.

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Average High/Low for MSP
August 29th

Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1969)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 45F set in 1946)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 29th

Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 7:55pm

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Moon Phase for August 29th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before First Quarter

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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Waves of cooler air appear to be rolling in with a little more frequency as we approach September. Note the 2 dips over the next 15 days. 1 occurs early next week with a potentially bigger temperature drop by the first weekend in September. Keep in mind that extended model runs are always as reliable, but if this were to pan out, we could be looking at highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s by the first weekend of September!

Allergy Alert!!

AAAAACHOOOOOO!! UGH! Not sure about you, but I've been battling the seasonal allergy bug like many others out there. It seems to really set in around the Minnesota State Fair, when ragweed seems to be at it's peak. I generally don't wish any cold spells upon us, but not sure how much longer I can take this sneezing, itching and watering eyes. According to Pollen.com - we're in for a fairly high pollen weekend, especially Sunday.

Get the latest pollen forecast HERE:

Friday: Wetter Weather Keeps Pollen Levels Low

Thanks to an impulse of energy moving through the Midwest on Friday, cloudy and soggy weather will help to keep pollen levels lower. The image below suggests the weather conditions at 5pm Friday.

Somewhat Soggy...

A big blob of moisture on a northeast heading toward the U.P. of Michigan through Friday will be responsible for several inches of precipitation, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding.

Sunday Severe Threat?

A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday and bring strong to severe thunderstorm chances back to the Upper Midwest. As of now, NOAA's SPC has parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities under an enhanced risk of stronger storms. Keep up to date with the latest storm chances for Sunday.

Northern Lights

Thanks to @WIStrmChaser for the picture below out of Aurora, WI !! Amazing colors in the northern lights display from earlier this week thanks to a geomagnetic storm on the sun a few days ago.

"The CMEs that instigated the display were launched toward Earth on Aug. 22nd. As NOAA analysts predicted, the solar wind speed did not change much when the slow-moving CMEs arrived. However, the storm clouds were still effective because they contained a south-pointing magnetic field that opened a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the show."

Read more from www.SpaceWeather.com HERE:

Weather Outlook

2 Different weather features will keep somewhat soggy weather conditions in place through the early weekend. By Saturday, most of the 'heavy' precipitation will shift into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Region.

Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's HPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests quite a bit of heavy rain potential over parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes through early next week. Note also the heavy rain potential across the Mississippi River Valley, while the Western U.S. looks to remain still very dry.

Remembering Katrina

9 years ago (Monday, August 29th) Hurricane Katrina plowed ashore in southeastern Louisiana as a major category 3 storm. A catastrophic levee failure in New Orleans caused much of city to flood. The image below is from August, 28th when Katrina was at it's strongest intensity; Category 5 with 175mph sustained winds!!

Ski Season Approaches...

Hopefully it'll be a while before we start seeing our first flakes here in Minnesota, but ski season is nearing quickly in the mountains. Thanks to the Telluride Ski Resort for the picture below - they documented snow on the back of this car window earlier this week!

Big Surf Across Southwest California

Southwest California was a buzz earlier this week a huge waves moved into the Wedge. There were reports of near +20ft waves that caught the attention of quite a few surfers. These massive breakers were caused by Hurricane Marie in the East Pacific, which was a category 4 storms on Monday with near 150mph winds!

Hurricane Marie Fades...

Hurricane Marie in the East Pacific was a major category 4 hurricane earlier this week with near 150mph winds.  The imagery that NASA satellite captured was amazing! The Capital Weather Gang has a nice write-up about it... See more HERE:

Active East Pacific

The Eastern Pacific has been very active this season with Marie being the 13th named storm of the 2014 season!

Somewhat Quiet Atlantic

The Atlantic basin has been a lot quieter by comparison... Our latest storm, Cristobal, became the 3rd named storm and 3rd hurricane of the 2014 season. The only storm that made landfall with the U.S. was Arthur, which was briefly a category 2 storm as it made landfall with the Outer Banks of North Carolina on July 3rd. Bertha and Cristobal made similar paths, curving east of the Eastern Seaboard during their life-cycle.

Atlantic Acting Up

The image below from the National Hurricane Center showed 4 different areas of interest as of Thursday with Hurricane Cristobal on a northeast heading toward Iceland by Labor Day Monday. The 3 " X's " indicate disturbances that the NHC is keeping an eye on.

Atlantic Forecast

According to NOAA's NHC, there are 2 disturbances that will have to be monitored over the next 5 days for further development. #1 in the Caribbean heading west towards the Yucatan Peninsula has a LOW chance of development, while the disturbance moving west off the western tip of Africa has a medium chance of development.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX