weather

Sunday Severe?

By Todd Nelson

After looking at the weather maps over the last several days, I can't get the Billie Holiday lyrics out of my head, "Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky. Stormy Weather."

Saturday's gully washer brought nearly 1" to 2" of rain across parts of central Minnesota. The officially tally from AM Saturday at the Minneapolis Airport was only 0.10" shy of the daily record 1.57" set in 1882.

Don't put away the umbrellas just yet. More thunder is expected through early next week. Some of the storms later today across southern Minnesota could reach severe limits. Pay attention to local forecasts through the afternoon and evening, there may be stronger rumbles close to home.

The same storm system will wobble slowly through the Midwest through early next week, keeping the threat for showers and storms in the forecast through at least Tuesday. Showers finally taper by Wednesday; Thursday and Friday look even better with more sun and warmer temperatures.

Most Minnesota lakes are now finally ice free! Several of those boasting their latest ice out dates in recorded history. Water temps are still a bit chilly for a dip, but they're warming fast!

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible. Some PM storms could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota. High: 82.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers/storm continue early. Some may be strong to severe with heavy rain. Low: 64

MONDAY: Still gray. Spotty thundershowers. High: 75

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers, isolated thunder. Wake-up: 57. High: 67

WEDNESDAY: Passing shower? Peeks of afternoon sunshine possible. Wake-up: 50. High: 63

THURSDAY: Lingering AM shower. Finally drying out. More PM sun. Wake-up: 44. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.

SATURDAY: Warmer yet. Mix of sun and clouds to kick off Memorial Weekend. Wake-up: 54. High: 72.

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MN Fishing Opener Take 2...

Thanks to my good friends Bob and Kim Jones for sharing this picture. Their daughter Danielle caught this near 28" walleye on Lake Mille Lacs!! Nice catch Danielle!! You may recall last weekend, Lake Mille Lacs was in the news as it was still ice covered and "Ice shoves" or "Ice heaves" were piling up along the south shore up to 25ft. Thanks to 30mph to 40mph winds, ice shoves were responsible for shattering glass patio doors at the Izatys Resort!

Lake Mille Lacs Officially "Ice Out"

Official "Ice out" dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded... Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!

Curious about your favorite lake? See the MN DNR Ice Out Map HERE:

Minnesota Hail

Thanks to the National Weather Service via Susan Buss for the picture below out of Windom, MN from Friday. This is part of the same storm that produced a tornado on Friday near Lakefield and Wilder.

See more HERE:

SUNDAY SEVERE?

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Minnesota under a risk of severe weather for Sunday... Stay tuned for further updates and changes as they become available. Stay tuned to local forecast Sunday afternoon/evening as strong to severe storms may be possible close to home. Keep in mind that the threat area will likely change as the storm moves into the central part of the country...

See the latest severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center HERE:

Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows 'spin' in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that's why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.

Severe Weather Threat Ahead

The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you're in these areas you'll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumling close to home.

SUNDAY THREAT

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...


...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY....

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER
THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY1...THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD
WRN MO BY 20/00Z. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z NAM/GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE NAM FAVORING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SPEED
MAX/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THE MORE DISPLACED NAM SPEED
MAX IS CORRECT...IF SO THEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD EAST OF DEPICTED MDT RISK.

FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE FORECAST HEIGHT FIELD/WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...AT SUNRISE
IT APPEARS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL
NEB...SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN KS...EXTENDING SSWWD
INTO NWRN TX. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY STRONG WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL KS...SSWWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX BY 21Z. IF HOWEVER THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT THEN
THE DRYLINE MAY MIX TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTENSE HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE THERE IS AMPLE
REASON TO BELIEVE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE
INITIALLY NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS KS...THEN SWD INTO
OK. THIS MAY OCCUR BY 21Z OVER KS AND BY 20/00Z ACROSS OK TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY THERE IS SUPPORT FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
MATURING COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS KS/NERN OK INTO
WRN MO WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK.

...SERN U.S...

REMNANT MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELD.
GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD BE NOTED WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.

MONDAY THREAT

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SFC LOW NEAR THE RED
RIVER NEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK. THE MODELS APPEAR TO ORGANIZE AN
MCS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEWD INTO
THE OZARKS DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TX AT
00Z/TUE SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALSO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES IN THE 400 TO 50O M2/S2 RANGE BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS SUGGESTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TORNADOES. IF MESOSCALE CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT THIS FAR OUT...IS THAT MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOW AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE OUTCOME AND THAT THE SCENARIO
WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENTED BY THE MODELS.

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL JET WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID
TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS A
BROAD CORRIDOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET...SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A
BROAD AREA WHERE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT FOR SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT.

Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Drier Saturday

By Todd Nelson

Thanks to a particular 'Common' voice on midday radio for the shout out Friday. He and others that may have cancelled tee times Friday due to the doom and gloom forecast, may have felt a little let down when their backyard rain gauges weren't overflowing. 1" to 2" of heavy rain fell 50 miles south of the Twin Cities by AM Friday leaving most across the Metro cool, damp and breezy.

Rain and thunder remains in the forecast over the next several days, but Saturday may turn out to be the drier day as a warm front lifts into northern Minnesota. A warmer and stickier air mass settles in to the southern half of the state today with spotty showers and storms generally across far northern Minnesota and the Dakotas.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted stronger storm potential in neighboring states later today and again tomorrow; we'll get the leftovers of whatever develops south and west of us. Sunday looks like the soggier day of the weekend for us with soaking rains still possible through early next week.

Smells of SPF may return later next week as the sun finally pops out and temps warm. An unsettled weather pattern may return next wknd.

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

SATURDAY: AM showers/storms lift into northern MN thru the day. Warmer/stickier afternoon. High: 81

SATURDAY NIGHT: Strong to severe storms across eastern South Dakota/Western MN. Thunder and heavy rain potential increases for the eastern Minnesota. Low: 67

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible. Some PM storms could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota. High: 82

MONDAY: Still gray. Spotty thundershowers. Wake-up: 64. High: 76

TUESDAY: Cooler. Lingering light rain showers. Wake-up: 54. High: 66

WEDNESDAY: Sprinkles. Peeks of afternoon sunshine? Wake-up: 49. High: 64

THURSDAY: Finally drying out. More sun. Wake-up: 48. High: 68.

FRIDAY: Smells of SPF return. Warmer with more sun. Wake-up: 53. High: 72.

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Minnesota Tornadoes on Friday?

Two storms developed late Friday afternoon/evening across southwestern Minnesota with large hail and even tornado reports near Wilder and Lakefield in Jackson county.

This is what the cells looked like on Friday just prior to the southern cell turning tornadic. There were also reports of 2" diameter hail near Lakefield and Windom.

Lovely Weather for a Duck

Thanks to Julie Hickstein for the picture below out of the Twin Cities from Friday. The soggy Friday weather was enough to make even this duck a little weird. Can you spot it?

Stormy Weather Ahead?

Billie Holiday once sang: "Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky. Stormy Weather." Of course she kept singing and it turned out that it had been raining since her man and her weren't together anymore... I've had this song stuck in my head over the last several days while looking at weather maps. Take a look at NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation forecat below. A slow moving/waterlogged Pacific storm will wind up over the middle part of the country through next week and keep shower and thunder activity in place over some of the same areas over the next several days. Some may end up with 2" to 4"+ by the time this storm wrings itself out next week.

Wind Map (Bookmark Worthy)

This is a bookmark worthy website for you if you're interested. I tend to pull this map anytime there are storm system rolling through the country. It does a pretty good with surface features; i.e. fronts/highs/lows/etc. Note the counterclockwise rotation in the wind field across the High Plains. This is the developing low pressure system that will create strong to severe weather potential across the middle part of the country over the next few days.

See the animating website HERE:

 Warm & Sticky Weekend?

This slow moving storm will also churn up some warmer and stickier air across the Upper Midwest. MSP should see temps in the lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with dew points in the lower 60s. Next week, temps should fall into the 60s as the storm sits nearly on top of us!

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Thundery Downpours Ahead

By Todd Nelson

I hope you were able to find your thunderwear out of the back of the closet this week. The extended forecast calls for thunderous downpours over the next several days, a recipe that will have your lawn green in no time!

The U.S. Drought Monitor released it's latest outlook on Thursday and it still showed nearly 13% of Minnesota in a severe drought, down from nearly 15% last week. Keep in mind that 3 months ago, nearly 85% of the state was in a severe drought. There's a silver lining to the cool and wet Spring that we've had so far; the drought is slowly easing!

2" to 4" of rain may be possible across parts of Minnesota by the time this storm wrings itself out sometime next week. There is literally rain/thunder in the forecast everyday until next Wednesday!

I have a hunch that many folks will need a new pair of thunderwear at some point next week as they'll get some pretty good mileage throught the weekend.

I could even see a few strong storms around the state on Saturday.

According to Iowa Mesonet, the MSP County Warning Area has gone approximately 265 days without a tornado warning issued in the area. 2012 saw it's first tornado on March 19th.

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Locally heavy rain likely. High: 68. Winds: ESE 10-15

SATURDAY: Humid, few strong to severe T-storms up North? Wake-up: High: 81

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible, cooler. Wake-up: 65. High: 79

MONDAY: Soggy. Scattered showers and storms. Wake-up: 64. High: 76

TUESDAY: More rain, rumbles possible. Wake-up: 58. High: 68

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Wake-up: 56. High: 69

THURSDAY: Drier day. Lawns look quite green. Wake-up: 53. High: 69

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Deadly Texas Twisters

Wednesday evening was pretty scary for some folks in northern Texas as tornadoes developed just west of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. The most significant tornado touched down near Granbury, TX just after 8pm where at least 6 people died and more than 100 were injured. Thanks to DrTornadoCooley for the picture below out of Millsap, TX. 

Granbury, TX Tornado

 

According to the National Weather Service out of Ft. Worth, TX the Granbury, TX tornado was considered to be an EF4 tornado. Look how it whipped this house right off of it's foundation!

 

This is what the radar looked like Wednesday evening as tornadic storms were rolling through Millsap and Granbury, TX.

2013 Tornado Drought Continues

According to the Storm Prediction Center (without taking into account Wednesday's tornadoes) there had been 251 PRELIMINARY tornadoes so far this year thru the 15th of May. Interestingly, that quite a bit below the average through today's date!

2013 Compared to Average

Here are the numbers for 2013 vs. average through today's date and note how much below average we are!

Heavy Rainfall

There is also a risk for heavy rainfall. NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation forecast suggests nearly 2" to 4" of rain possible in thundery downpours across the Red River Valley through early next week.

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend ahead!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Perpetual Paranoia

By Paul Douglas

If you're not paranoid you're probably not paying attention. As annoying as spring has been (and it HAS been a pain in the Doppler) at least we're not grappling with life-threatening weather.

I keep an eye on global natural disasters for Fortune 500 companies and sleep with one eye open. Let's see: possible volcanic eruptions near Mexico City & Alaska, SARS epidemics, Cyclone Mahasen pushing toward Bangladesh, and 4 X-class solar flares since Sunday.

NASA's ACE satellite may only be able to give a 1 hour heads-up of a flare capable of bringing down the power grid. The odds are low, but not zero, and the 11-year solar cycle peaks later this year. No wonder you want to turn over to the sports page.

No weather worries today, just lukewarm sun and a gentle breeze. Spring the way it was meant to be. Another sloppy warm front sparks T-storms Friday into Monday. 1-2" rains may fall; even a few severe T-storms over the weekend - the first of the year for most of Minnesota.

No need to water the lawn anytime soon: puddles linger into Tuesday. Good news: it probably won't snow up north (good grief) but don't pack away light jackets just yet.

At least the drought is fading fast.

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds & sun, lukewarm. High: 79. Winds: East 5.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms arrive. Low: 59

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Locally heavy rain likely. High: 71

SATURDAY: Humid, few strong to severe T-storms up North? Wake-up: 62. High: 83

SUNDAY: More locally heavy rain/thunder possible, cooler. Wake-up: 64. High: 79

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler with more showers/storms. Wake-up: 63. High: 75

TUESDAY: Risk of light jackets. More clouds and showers. Wake-up: 58. High: 66

WEDNESDAY: Showers taper... Lawns looking quite green! Wake-up: 53. High: 59

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Summery Scenario

Tuesday's high temps reached record levels in many locations from the Central Plains to the Midwest. Thanks to Staci Weller for the picture below out of St. Cloud, MN where they hit a record high of 95°!!

Fleece Blanket Giveaway? 

The Twin Cities hit a record high of 98° on Tuesday, the warmest reading since July 16th, 2012. Interestingly, the Minnesota Twins' giveaway to the first 10,000 fans was a fleece blanket! You can't make this stuff up!! LOL - thanks to Andy Mair for the picture below who had a birthday on Tuesday and caught a home run ball! You can't make that up either!

3rd Hottest May Temp for Minneapolis, MN!

According to the National Weather Service, the 98° high temp in the Twin Cities was the 3rd warmest May temperature on record! Note the other records and especially the dates. 1934 had 3 out of the top 5 warmest May temps in the recorded history.

Wild Temp Extremes

I lived in Duluth, MN for 4 years and I always considered Spring to be the hardest time of the year due to the annoyingly and persistant cold weather near Lake Superior. The map below shows temps on Midday Tuesday across the region. While St. James, MN and Sioux City, IA were in the low 100s, downtown Duluth was nearly 60° cooler at 45°! There's a saying in Duluth; "Cooler by the Lake" and it certainly help true yesterday... it's considered to be the air conditioned city!

100 Degree Club

Here are a number of cities that I could find that hit 100°+ on Tuesday... I may have missed a few! There were too many to keep track! By the way, that 106° temp in Sioux City, IA was the hottest May temperature ever recorded in that city!

Summer-Like Temperatures...

This is a map more typical of the dog days of Summer... July. There were several record highs from the Intermountain West to the central part of the country. All the numbers that have an 'R' appended to it, was a record for Tuesday. Chicago even made it into the 90s yesterday, but not quite to record levels.

Chicago Hits 90° For The First Time in 2013!

That 91° high temp on Tuesday was the earliest 91° high temp in 31 years! By the way, Chicago didn't reach 90° until May 19th last year. That is pretty surprising considering how warm it was last spring.

Spring Wildfires

Thanks to my good friend Clint Austin from the Duluth News Tribune for the picture below out of Northwest Wisconsin. The extreme heat and windy conditions made for extreme fire weather conditions on Tuesday. According to www.inciweb.org, as of midday Wednesday, the fire had consumed nearly 8,700 acres and 50 sturctures. The good news is that it was 90% to 95% contained.

Germann Road Fire in Northwest Wisconsin

Here are more pictures from www.inciweb.org on the Germann Road Fire in Northwest Wisc.

See more HERE:

Fires From Space

The image below shows smoke plumes visible from space from Tuesday afternoon. It's also pretty wild to see ice still visible on Lake Mille Lacs.

Record Cold in the Northeast

We also had record cold in the Northeast earlier this week too. Take a look at some of the records that were broken on AM Tuesday...

Weekend Severe Threat

Extended model runs are still suggesting a fairly vigorous low in the Pacific, which will translate into a several day thunderstorms threat across the middle part of the country. Keep in mind that some of these storms could be severe! In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has already issued outlooks for the weekend thunder threat.

500mb Vorticity (Spin)

This is the 500mb vorticity map for saturday, which shows spin in the atmosphere. There a fairly large trough of low pressure in the west, which will help to envigorate some thunderstorm activity in the middle part of the country by the weekend.

Weekend Severe Threat?

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous into the weekend with the threat of some of these storms to become severe. Here's the Storm Prediction Center outlook ahead.

Heavy Rain Ahead

NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation forecast suggests a decent amount of rain headed into the Midwest by late week/weekend ahead. Some spots could see 1" to 2"+ with strong to severe thunderstorms... Stay tuned for more!

Tropical Season?

On Wednesday, our first tropical depression (One-E) developed in the Pacific Southwest of Mexico! It is expected to become Hurricane Alvin later this week!

Tracking Hurricane Alvin By Friday?

"THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS."

Read more from the National Hurricane Center HERE:

 Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV