Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

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A Fickle September: 70s - Frost Risk - Repeat

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: September 15, 2014 - 11:14 PM

Power of Perception

Every day I fall out of bed, rub my eyes, and gaze out the Amish Doppler (window) to get the most accurate, real-time weather report available. The Earth appears flat, but NASA scientists are convinced that we live on a big, lush, spinning sphere. I'm inclined to believe them.

With record rains in June, freak cold fronts in July and an early frost for much of Minnesota last Saturday the perception is that we just muddled through a very chilly summer. But National Weather Service data begs to differ. Cooling degree day data for MSP shows temperatures have been running close to average, yet significantly cooler than 2013.

Perception becomes reality, right? Some days it's hard keeping the big picture. My window keeps getting in the way.

More evidence of a high-amplitude pattern aloft with big swings in temperature: after nudging 80F late this week with sticky dew points in the 60s we cool off again Sunday; another early frost can't be ruled out Tuesday morning. Followed by 70s, even a crack at 80F late next week. You'll need shorts and jackets.

Hurricane Odile just whacked Cabo San Lucas, the strongest hurricane ever to hit Baja Mexico. Moisture from Odile may spark severe flash flooding over Arizona in the coming days.


Warming Trend - Frost Risk Early Next Week? Long-range guidance shows 70+ temperatures as early as Wednesday; 80F not out of the question by Friday and Saturday with a few scattered T-storms as dew points surge into the upper 60s. A strong cool front arrives Saturday PM hours; you start to feel the cool breeze Sunday with a big drop in humidity; as winds ease Monday night we can't rule out a frost Tuesday morning, especially outside the immediate Twin Cities. Graphic: Weatherspark.


Growing Flash Flood Potential Desert Southwest. Moisture from Hurricane Odile will spread up Baja Mexico, fueling intense and persistent monsoonal thunderstorms from near Phoenix and Tucson to Albuquerque in the coming days. I could see some 5"+ amounts capable of severe flash flooding. 60-hour accumulated rainfall: NOAA's 4 KM NAM model and HAMweather.


Odile Ravages Cabo San Lucas, Strongest Known Hurricane To Hit Baja Mexico. Here's an excerpt of a good recap from the always-interesting Capital Weather Gang: "...It’s very rare to get a major hurricane [ category 3 or higher] to reach the Baja Peninsula,” said Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang’s tropical weather expert.  “I found just two previous storms in the records to make landfall as major hurricanes: Kiko (1989) and Olivia (1967).” McNoldy said Odile’s intensity exceeded Kiko’s and matched Olivia’s.  “Specifically in Cabo San Lucas, it was the most intense landfall,” McNoldy added..." (credit: CIMSS).

* The Wall Street Journal has raw footage of Cabo San Lucas before Odile struck.


The Impact of Solar Flares On The Human Mood and Psyche. Could CME's have an impact on the human mind or is this all a scientific stretch, the stuff of urban legend? Here's an excerpt of a post at Communities Digital News that got my attention: "...From 1948 to 1997, the Institute of North Industrial Ecology Problems in Russia found that geomagnetic activity showed three seasonal peaks each of those years (March to May, in July, and in October). Every peak matched an increased incidence of anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, and suicide in the city Kirovsk. One explanation for the correlation is that solar storms desynchronize our circadian rhythm (biological clock). The pineal gland in our brain is affected by the electromagnetic activity..."


California Just Banned Free Plastic Bags. Hold the Rejoicing. Mother Jones has a vivid reminder of why you want to use paper, not plastic - here's a clip: "...No one is sure how long a plastic bag takes to decompose, but estimates range from 500 to 1,000 years. Even then, they never fully biodegrade; they just break down into ever-tinier plastic pellets. Each year, tens of thousands of whales, birds, seals, and turtles die after getting entangled with bags or mistaking them for food. In 2010, a gray whale that was beached and died in Seattle was found to have more than 20 plastic bags in its stomach..."

Photo credit above: "Washed-up plastic bags along the Los Angeles River." .


Tsunami Survival Capsule Could Help Save Lives. If you live near sea level and an active earthquake fault this might look pretty good under the tree come Christmas morning. Ubergizmo has an interesting story and video clip; here's an excerpt: "Tsunamis do show how the forces of nature are not meant to be trifled with. In fact, after three years have passed where the earthquake and tsunami wreaked havoc in Japan, resulting in close to 20,000 deaths in the Land of the Rising Sun, work is being done with a U.S. company to deliver a ‘tsunami survival capsule’ which has the potential to save lives in the event of a future tsunami..."


Is Google's Self-Driving Car Ready For Prime Time? I'm holding off on placing my order after reading this article at IEEE Spectrum; here's an excerpt: "...IEEE Spectrum has now obtained the driving log of this test, and e-mails referring to it, under Freedom of Information legislation. Some of this information is not new. For example, Nevada officials shared that the Google’s autonomous Toyota Prius passed the test almost immediately. What has not been revealed until now, however, is that Google chose the test route and set limits on the road and weather conditions that the vehicle could encounter, and that its engineers had to take control of the car twice during the drive..." (Photo credit: Google).


Made in Chicago: World's First 3-D Printed Electric Car. Will there come a day when you can use a home 3-D printer to manufacture your next vehicle, to your specs? It sounds like science fiction, but I wouldn't entirely rule it out, either. WGNtv.com has the video and story excerpt: "In a matter of two days, history was made at Chicago’s McCormick Place, as the world’s first 3D printed electric car—named Strati, Italian for “layers”– took its first test drive. “Less than 50 parts are in this car,” said Jay Rogers from Local Motors. Roger’s company is part of the team that developed the engineering process to manufacture an entire car with carbon fiber plastic and print it with a large 3D printer set up at McCormick Place by Cincinnati Incorporated..."


On Death and iPods: a Requiem. WIRED has an interesting essay about what our music (and devices) say about us. No more iPods and more than a few music lovers are in iDenial. Here's an excerpt: "...In all likelihood we’re not just seeing the death of the iPod Classic, but the death of the dedicated portable music player. Now it’s all phones and apps. Everything is a camera. The single-use device is gone—and with it, the very notion of cool that it once carried. The iPhone is about as subversive as a bag of potato chips, and music doesn’t define anyone anymore. Soon there will be no such thing as your music library. There will be no such thing as your music. We had it all wrong! Information doesn’t want to be free, it wants to be a commodity. It wants to be packaged into apps that differ only in terms of interface and pricing models. It wants to be rented..." (Photo credit: Jim Merithew/WIRED).


Smartphones Ruin More Than Your Sleep - They May Also Be Destroying Your Vision. Here's an excerpt of a story at Business Insider that made me do a double-take: "f you are buying a new iPhone, don't use it in bed — and not just because nighttime smartphone use messes up your sleep cycle. The blue light from personal electronic devices has also been linked to serious physical and mental health problems. Blue light is part of the full light spectrum, which means we're exposed to it by the sun every day. However, nighttime exposure to that light, which is emitted at high levels by smartphones, tablets, laptops, and other LED screens, may be damaging your vision. It also suppresses production of the hormone melatonin, which throws off your body's natural sleep cues..."

Photo credit: m01229/flickr


Is TV Stuck in the 70s? We have more channels than I recall in the 70s (when there were 4, give or take), but I still find it difficult to watch everything I'm paying for in the satellite/cable world. Here's a Charlie Rose video interview and story excerpt from Fortune: "...The reality is that cord cutting is happening whether or not these companies do anything or not,” says Rich Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG. “Multi-channel TV is in secular decline. It’s not rapid. It’s a slow melting. The question is what do you do to address it.” Ultimately, it’s not just recalcitrant content owners that are holding back the dream of a Web-like TV world. It’s also economics. Buying channels individually may not prove any cheaper for consumers—not after they spend ever-larger sums for broadband service that is sold by the same companies brought them the cable bundle..."


40 of the Healthiest Packaged Foods You Can Buy At The Supermarket. Like so many others I'm trying to make smarter decisions when it comes to food. Here's an excerpt of a story at Buzzfeed that caught my eye: "...To that end, the Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) publishes newsletters naming the healthiest brand-name foods you can find at the supermarket. To make their selections, CSPI, which is an independent organization that doesn’t take money from the government or the food industry, crunched data on calories, saturated fat, sodium, and other nutritional information, depending on the category. CSPI says the selections below, handpicked by its nutritionists just for BuzzFeed, taste good, too..."


62 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday.

72 F. average high on September 15.

67 F. high on September 15, 2013.

.06" rain fell at MSP International Airport yesterday.

September 15 in Minnesota Weather History. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service:

2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, killing a 10 year old girl.

1992: New Market received nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapsed from floodwater in northern Le Sueur County.

1955: An F1 tornado touched down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.


TODAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: SW 10. High: 66

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear and not as cool. Low: 50

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, milder. Dew point: 50. High: near 70

THURSDAY: Fading sun, more wind. Wake-up: 51. High: 71

FRIDAY: Humid, growing thunder risk, especially Friday night. Dew point: 62. Wake-up: 58. High: 78

SATURDAY: Wet start, gradual clearing. Warm breeze. Wake-up: 63. High: 79

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, cooler breeze. Wake-up: 58. High: 68

MONDAY: Hints of October. Spotty frost late. Wake-up: 44. High: 57


Climate Stories...


Warmest August, Worldwide, Since 1888. We're on track for the 4th warmest year on record, globally, factoring land and ocean temperatures. The graphic above is courtesy of NASA GISS.


Climate Change: A Hole Too Big To Ignore. Why should we care about these strange holes appearing in Siberian permafrost? Canary in the coal mine? We'll see. Here's a clip from a story at The Jewish Daily Forward: "...Why should we care? The problem is that decaying organic matter releases high levels of methane, a carbon-based greenhouse gas that’s about 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Tests of the air at the bottom of the first crater found methane content of 9.6%. That’s roughly 54,000 times higher than normal air (normal is 0.000179% methane). Three holes in Siberia aren’t the end of the world, of course. Not by themselves. But they’re part of an alarming pattern of methane leaks discovered recently that look like products of climate change..."

Image credit above: Wikipedia. "Bottomless: One of the giant craters that appeared in Northern Siberia this summer, a result of global warming."


Climate Activism's New Frontier is Targeting Fossil Fuel Investors. Churches are getting involved in the fossil fuel divestment movement, selling their investments in carbon-producing firms. Here's an excerpt from The Sydney Morning Herald: "...The report, funded by World Wildlife Fund UK, said the movement's real power lies in its ability to stigmatise the industry. "In almost every divestment campaign we reviewed, from Darfur to adult services, from tobacco to South Africa, divestment campaigns were successful in lobbying for restrictive legislation affecting stigmatised firms." It identified three stages of divestment, beginning with churches or bodies such as public health associations – who are motivated by ethical priorities – then moving to universities  or cities, and finally, investors such as banks and pension funds. The fossil fuels divestment campaign had moved rapidly to the second stage, the report said..."

A More Comfortable Front - "Bertha" Sighting

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 3, 2014 - 11:22 PM

Just Keep Smiling

I'm older, but no wiser, yet one thing I know: Minnesota Nice evaporates when you're standing in line for a Paul McCartney concert and the sky begins to leak.

"Paul, if it rains you're in trouble!" a women scowled, repeatedly poking me with hypodermic fingernails. Really? I checked Doppler on my cell phone (something my team at a former company, Digital Cyclone, invented in 2001) and was gratified to see others in the crowd quietly doing the same. "Ma'am the shower is ending. And it won't snow. That I can promise you."

Here's the thing: I love the weather. I do my job for free. They pay me (actually I pay myself) to put up with noisy skeptics. It's a never-ending MBA in public relations and crowd control. No wonder I'm neurotic.

A northeast breeze drops dew points to comfortable levels today; most of the T-storms stay south and west of MSP into midweek.

Thursday appears to be the wettest day, with sunshine and 80s next weekend luring you back onto the lake. After record June floods and mostly-lousy weekends in July we're trying to cram an entire summer into August.

Soak it up because the ECMWF hints at 60s for highs by the middle of next week.

PS: the sprinkles ended in time for McCartney's amazing rendition of "8 Days a Week".

No flurries either.


Definition of Isolated Thunderstorms. When it rains hard in your yard the probability of precipitation goes up to 100%, but the high-res visible loop from Sunday shows showers and T-storms over less than 5-10% of the area during the midday and afternoon hours; cumulonimbus flaring up ahead of a slightly cooler and drier front that will leave us breating a bit easier today and Tuesday. Loop: HAMweather.


A Summerlike Week. Next Week? Not So Much. 80s will be the rule this week, with the exception of Thursday, when showers and T-storms will keep temperatures in the 70s. You'll notice a welcome dip in dew point today, but humidity levels creep up as the week goes on, a very lake-worthy weekend shaping up with mid-80s possible both days. A cool frontal passage sparks more heavy T-storms Monday, followed by a possible temperature tumble next week. Source: Weatherspark.


Moisture Plume. The amount of tropical moisture available to a stalled East Coast frontal boundary is impressive, and I could see some isolated 6" amounts near Wilmington North Carolina by 2 AM Wednesday. Slightly cooler, drier air pushes south into Minnesota and Wisconsin; monsoon T-storms producing localized flash flooding from California's Sierra Nevada into Las Vegas and possibly Salt Lake City. 4 KM WRF data: NOAA and HAMweather.


Carolina Flood Potential. 7-Day accumulated rainfall guidance shows some 4-5" amounts possible from near Charleston to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, capable of ongoing flooding headaches. More heavy showers and T-storms are likely to dump 1-3"+ rains from near Sioux Calls to Des Moines and Kansas City. Source: NOAA.


A Close Call from Bertha. No, not Bertha Butt (one of the Butt Sisters), but Tropical Storm Bertha, which may grow to minimal Category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday, well east of the US coast. But the Carolinas will be brushed by strong winds and rip currents, moisture from Bertha fueling additional heavy showers and T-storms with potential flash flooding for the Outer Banks. Storm track: NOAA NHC.


Gov. Brown Declares State of Emergency for California Wildfires. Here's the latest from The Los Angeles Times: "Gov. Jerry Brown on Saturday declared a state of emergency due to the effects of several wildfires burning in central and northern California counties. Thousands of acres have burned in El Dorado, Amador, Butte, Humboldt, Lassen, Madera, Mariposa, Mendocino, Modoc, Shasta and Siskiyou counties, which have been suffering from lightning strikes and high temperatures. Some homes have burned..."

Photo credit above: "This July 28 photo by the U.S. Forest Service shows flames and smoke in the Sierra National Forest." (Burt Stalter / U.S. National Forest Service via AP).


As Wildfires Burn Through Funds, Washington Seeks New Way To Pay. Nothing like running out of money to sharpen one's focus. Maine Public Broadcasting reports; here's an excerpt of a very interesting interview: "...Together, the Interior Department and the Forest Service, which bears the lion share of wildfire fighting responsibilities, have budgeted over a billion dollars for firefighting this year. That's five times more than 20 years ago, and even that may not be enough, if recent years are any guide. There are other costs associated with wildfires, says Rachel Cleetus, a senior climate economist with the Union of Concerned Scientists..."

Photo credit above: "Smoke rises from a fire in Burney, Calif., Sunday, Aug. 3, 2014. A pair of wildfires burning without restraint about 8 miles apart in northeast California became the focus of state and federal firefighters as authorities reported that one of the blazes had destroyed eight homes and prompted the precautionary evacuation of a small long-term care hospital." (AP Photo/Record Searchlight, Clay Duda)


Downright Dismal Images of the Western Drought, A Record-Setter in California. The acceleration of drought out west, especially California, is remarkable. Climate Central provides additional perspective; here's a clip: "...California is turning brown and you can see it from space. Look at the difference between June 2011 and June 2014 in the animation of NASA images below. Note the dwindling snowpack, as well. Sierra Nevada snowpack was just 18 percent of normal this spring..."

Animation credit: "Pair of images above from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite." (NASA).


10 Cities Running Out Of Water. Most of them are in California, as USA TODAY reports: "...Based on data provided by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a collaboration between academic and government organizations, 24/7 Wall St. identified large U.S. urban areas that have been under persistent, serious drought over the first seven months of this year. The Drought Monitor measures drought by five levels of intensity: from D0, described as abnormally dry, to D4, described as exceptional drought. For the first time in the Drought Monitor's history, 100% of California is under at least severe drought conditions, or D2. It was also the first time exceptional drought of any kind — the highest level — has been recorded in the state..."


Otherworldly Downpour Precedes Deadly Landslide in India. When it does rain it's falling harder, with tragic consequences at times. Here's a clip from The New York Times: "When the storm came to this tiny village on Wednesday morning, with a resounding blast and mere seconds of a downpour so heavy it could not be called rain, Dilip Bhagwa Lembeg was walking to his paddy fields. He heard the blast, looked up to the hill behind him, and saw that the mango trees on the hilltop were trembling. Seconds later, most of the houses in the area were gone..."

Photo credit above: "Villagers watch a rescue operation standing by mud and slush at the site of a landslide in Malin village, in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, Friday, Aug. 1, 2014. Heavy rains hampered efforts Friday by hundreds of rescue workers digging through heavy mud and debris, as the death toll from a landslide that engulfed an entire village in western India crossed 50". (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool).


Extreme Flash Flooding In Italian Tourist Town Kills 4, Injures 20. The UK Daily Mail has details on another tragedy. Is the rain falling harder or is this just the media doing a better job of reporting extreme rains that have always been with us? I suspect the former, but I'm keeping an open mind. Here's a clip: "At least four people have died after a flash flood swept revelers at a village festinval in Italy into a river. A furious torrent carried off cars, kiosks and villagers, who were celebrating the traditional "Feast of the Omens" in Molinetto della Croda, near Venice. Around 200 people had taken shelter under a tent when "an avalanche of water" struck, leaving more than 20 people injured, four badly, authorities said..."


Heavy Rain Paralyzes Life Across Turkey. Istanbul was hit by a rare tornado; here's an excerpt from Today's Zaman: "İstanbul was hit by heavy rain on Saturday evening, causing water to collect on several roads, bringing traffic to a standstill. Many locals, heading home from work, were trapped in their vehicles when floodwater accumulated on the roads. Flooding caused traffic jams and congestion problems throughout the city. Municipal workers worked all night to clear streets across the city...."

Photo credit above: "A tornado struck the İstanbul neighborhood of Kasımpaşa amid fierce rain on Saturday." (Photo: Cihan).

Science Fair Project Spins Up NASA Hurricane Study. Are hurricanes becoming larger, and if so what are the economic implications? Should we be focusing less on wind speed and category and more on the size of a storm? Here's an excerpt of a fascinating study from NASA JPL: "...They found that the common practice of using only wind speed to represent hurricanes in economic hurricane damage models is inadequate for large storms, such as 2012's Hurricane Sandy. Zhai and Jiang are the first to quantify the economic impacts of increasing hurricane size. Analyzing 73 hurricanes from 1988 to the present, Zhai and Jiang found that a doubling in size, without a change in wind speed, more than quadruples the economic loss a hurricane causes. Tripling its size multiplies the loss by almost 20 times..."

Photo credit above: "Alice Zhai and Jonathan Jiang." Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.


Researchers Take New Approach To Hurricane Forecasting. Track predictions are consistently accurate, but how do we make that quantum leap and make a more accurate hurricane (intensity) forecast? News 92 FM in Houston has an interesting story; here's an excerpt: "...Forecasters have gotten pretty good at forecasting a hurricane’s path, but when it comes to intensity forecasting, especially intensity just before landfall, researcher Alex Soloviev of Nova Southeastern University says there just hasn’t been much progress. “During the last 25 years or so, there has been no serious improvement in forecasting of hurricanes,” Soloviev said..." (File photo of Hurricane Katia: NASA).


A Look At Some of History's Most Intense Hurricanes. RNN and WDAM.com have a good recap of some of America's superstorms; here's an excerpt: "Here’s a look at some of the most intense hurricanes to hit the United States.

Labor Day hurricane, 1935: This hurricane is still ranked as the most intense hurricane to ever hit the U.S. nearly eight decades after it struck the Florida Keys. Residents in the area had very little warning or chance to evacuate, as the storm was predicted to pass south. Survivors told The Associated Press their families only knew something was wrong in the hours before landfall when their barometers began showing low readings. While no wind speeds are available, the storm’s pressure was measured at 892 millibars, one of the lowest ever recorded. The unnamed hurricane killed 408 people in the Keys, many of them World War I veterans working on a local construction project..."

File photo above: Hurricane Andrew, 1992. "Many houses, businesses and personal effects suffered extensive damage from one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded in America. One million people were evacuated and 54 died in the hurricane." (Source: FEMA).


Only 6% of Weather-Related Deaths from 2006-2010 Were from Severe Weather. It may be counterintuitive, but the vast majority of the roughly 2,000 American weather-related fatalities were due to extreme cold and extreme heat. More details from WWLP.com.


Dramatic Image of Supercell Wins National Geographic Contest. Yes, this is one of the most spectacular photos I've ever seen of a strongly rotating thunderstorm. These are the extreme storms that often produce damaging hail and tornadoes. More from The Capital Weather Gang: "A beautiful, dramatic image of a Colorado supercell thunderstorm won first place in National Geographic’s 2014 Traveler Photo Contest. The image, taken by photographer Marko Korošec of Slovenia, is a striking representation of the power of thunderstorms in North America. Low precipitation supercells, like this one in Colorado, are most common in the high plains of the United States. They provide excellent opportunities to visualize the rotating updraft — part of what makes these storms so dangerous..."

Photo credit above: "The Independence Day" – "While on storm chasing expeditions in the Tornado Alley in USA I have encountered many photogenic supercell storms. This photograph was taken while we were approaching the storm near Julesburg, Colorado on My 28th, 2013. The storm was tornado warned for more than one hour, but stayed an LP storm through all its cycles and never produced a tornado, just occasional brief funnels, large hail and some rain." (Photo and caption by Marko Korošec / National Geographic Traveler Photo Contest)


After Ebola. The world is a dangerous place, but all other risks pale compared to virus and pandemic. That's the argument of this harrowing story at The New Yorker, including the story of Patrick Sawyer, the only American to die from ebola so far, was scheduled to fly to Minnesota - he never had a chance to get on that plane: "...But as the world’s worst Ebola epidemic yet spreads through western Africa, it is important to remember that we won’t always see something. “The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on this planet is the virus,” the Nobel Prize-winning biologist Joshua Lederberg once wrote. Few epidemiologists would disagree. There is no bomb, no poison, no plan of attack with the potential to do as much damage..."

Image credit above: "A woman in protective clothing drives an ambulance after departing Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta., Ga., en route Emory University Hospital in Atlanta Saturday, Aug. 2, 2014. A specially outfitted plane carrying Dr. Kent Brantly from West Africa arrived at a military base in Georgia. Brantly was taken to the Atlanta hospital. Another American with Ebola is expected to join him at the hospital in a few days." (AP Photo/John Bazemore).


When It's Bad To Have Good Choices. I've noticed for some time (in me). More choices sounds great, but it also makes me more neurotic - having to choose. This is why you never wander into Byerly's on an empty stomach. Here's a clip from The New Yorker: "...Perhaps, then, what we’re really seeing is how the old fear of missing out plays out in the brain. We’re surrounded by great choices to make, great places to be, great things to do—and that’s wonderful. But when we’re made to commit to one, just think of everything that gets away. Shenhav himself refers to it as the “neural correlates of First World problems.” We know that someone else is eating that delicious ice cream that we passed up—or filling that job that we turned down..." (Image credit: Psychology Today).


88 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.

82 F. average high on August 3.

80 F. high on August 3, 2013.


TODAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 56. NE 8. High: near 80

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, more comfortable sleeping. Low: 57

TUESDAY: Comfortable sunshine. Dew point: 54. High: 80

WEDNESDAY: Sun fades, isolated thunder late. Wake-up: 55. High: 82

THURSDAY: Wettest day of the week. T-storms likely. Wake-up: 58. High: 76

FRIDAY: Unsettled, spotty T-storms. Wake-up: 63. High: 81

SATURDAY: Warm sun, hit the lake. Dew point: 59. Wake-up: 62. High: 84

SUNDAY: Sticky sunshine, feels like July. DP: 63. Wake-up: 63. High: 85


Climate Stories....

Ignoring Climate Change is Risky Business. U.S. News has the article following up on the recent "Risky Business" report; here's the introduction: "The U.S. faces significant and diverse economic risks from climate change.” No, that’s not a scary pronouncement from the Obama administration to justify its climate policies. That’s the first sentence of the report “Risky Business”— from a staid committee co-chaired by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former George W. Bush administration Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and retired hedge fund founder Tom Steyer — urging the business community “to rise to the challenge and lead the way in helping reduce climate risks...”


Minnesota: Likely Impacts 2020-2039. Here's a graphic from the recent "Risky Business" report, detailing the changes that may be coming to Minnesota and the rest of the planet. It's a worthy read.


Global Warming Kicks up Record Pacific Trade Winds. Remember that everything in the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere system is interconnected. It's one big domino effect and we're in uncharted waters. Here's an excerpt from Discovery: "Rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean is "turbocharging" Pacific equatorial trade winds, according to new research. These are the strongest trade winds since recording began in the 1860s, according to scientists from the University of New South Wales and the University of Hawaii. "The increase in these winds has ... amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001," the study's authors report..." (image above: iStock).

* more on this research at phys.org and nature.com.


Where Should You Ride out Global Warming? Hint: It's Not The South. Here's an excerpt of an interesting analysis at al.com: "University of Washington atmospheric science professor Dr. Cliff Mass says in his blog this week that the Pacific Northwest is the spot in the lower 48 states to ride out global warming. Mass starts out by assuming global warming is real and "will take hold" later this century. Here's why he says the "Pacific Northwest is the place to be."

1. Sea level rise

It's not a big problem in the Pacific Northwest, Mass says, because of the general rise in elevation along Northwest shorelines. "Forget Florida," he says flatly. And South Alabama's beaches won't fare much better, his map indicates..."

Image credit above: "Based on U.S. Geological Survey publications including threat maps, meteorology professor Dr. Cliff Mass shows the coast areas most vulnerable to rising water caused by global warming." (Cliff Mass Weather Blog).


Why The Northwest Is A Potential "Climate Refuge" From Effects of Global Warming. Here's another look at Cliff Mass's recent post, and I certainly don't disagree that The Pacific Northwest has many things going for it when it comes to climate volatility, access to water and rising sea level. I'm not sure how this doesn't devolve into a PR scuffle (brought to you by the Local Chamber of Commerce!) My town will do better than your town, etc etc. I would argue that Minnesota, the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes may also fare well, as wet areas become even wetter in the years to come, which will bring it's own unique set of problems and issues. Time will tell. Here's an excerpt from KPLU News: "...So, I can go through one item after the other of major changes that are going to happen under global warming. And most of them will not produce serious effects here in the Northwest,” Mass said. Mass also cites researchers at Portland State University, who have published a study suggesting the Willamette Valley could become a place to ride out worsening conditions of a warming planet."

Map credit above: "The colored dots plot out expected effects of climate change." Courtesy Cliff Mass.


New Study Sees Warming Atlantic Behind a Host of Recent Climate Shifts. Andrew Revkin reports at The New York Times; here's the intro: "Using climate models and observations, a fascinating study in this week’s issue of Nature Climate Change points to a marked recent warming of the Atlantic Ocean as a powerful shaper of a host of notable changes in climate and ocean patterns in the last couple of decades — including Pacific wind, sea level and ocean patterns, the decade-plus hiatus in global warming and even California’s deepening drought. The study, “Recent Walker circulation strengthening and
Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
,” was undertaken by researchers at the University of New South Wales and University of Hawaii
..."


China's Surprise on Climate Change. Yes, the effort to wean ourselves off fossil fuels has to be a global effort, and China now emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the USA. They're starting to realize they have a longer term problem, and challenge. How do you keep the lights on, grow the economy, move more people into the middle class, with far less carbon-based pollution? Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at USA TODAY that caught my eye: "...Taking a long view, Chinese leaders see the threats posed by rising sea levels, droughts and other effects of climate change. For all these reasons, China is considering its first mandatory cap on coal use. Whether that will happen, or be sufficient, remains uncertain. Sustaining economic growth that has lifted a million people out of poverty remains China's overriding priority. Signals of its intentions could emerge at climate talks next month in New York, in December in Peru and next year in Paris. That's where the United States comes in. As the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, China and America hold the key on global warming..."

No Sweat. Coolest MLB All-Star Game on Record? Frost Potential North early Wednesday - 90s Next Week

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: July 14, 2014 - 10:49 PM


In town for the All-Star game? I predict you'll enjoy your stay in Minneapolis and enjoy a healthy serving of "Minnesota Nice" while you're here. What? It's "too cool for baseball?"

Well, unlike some stuffy American cities, where July heat can bake the paint off cars and make you want to live in your swimming pool, we prefer our summers fresh and comfortable, with a faint Canadian accent. In fact today is a little on the warm side for many of us! That's why you'll see throngs of smiling locals in shorts and sweatshirts.

Sort of a passive-aggressive thing we have going here. We ignore the weather we don't like. And we never, ever complain.

It may, in fact, be the coolest MLB All-Star Game since 1980 (if the first-pitch temperature is cooler than 68F). No haze, no smog. No raging storms - just popcorn cumulus clouds and a sprinkling of stars by 10 PM. Baseball the way it was meant to be.

A flawless Wednesday gives way to a warming trend later this week; the next chance of T-storms late Saturday.

Oh, if anyone asks (doubtful) Fairbanks, Alaska was warmer than the Twin Cities yesterday. And a light frost is possible over the Minnesota Arrowhead late tonight.

Welcome!


An All-Star Weather Report: Fresh Air; Frost Risk Northern Minnesota Wednesday Morning? In today's first Climate Matters segment I take a look at the crazy temperatures extremes across North America; wind chill over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, while the western USA and Canada fries under 90 and 100-degree heat. Blame (or thank) strange loops and permutations in the jet stream: "It's been all or nothing in the moisture department, why not temperature too? WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas goes over the chilly temperatures over the Eastern half of the United States and the baking heat across the West. What is to blame?"


A July Vortex from Space. The gyre of unusually chilly air pinwheeling out of Canada showed up in yesterday's visible satellite image, a counterclockwise swirl centered over Duluth. As cool as it was at the surface, temperatures aloft were much colder, resulting in numerous instability showers, some heavy.


Whiff of Wind Chill. At 10 AM Monday the wind chill in Hibbing was a crisp 46 F. Not too bad considering the air temperature was a chilling 52 F. with a windblown rain falling. What month is this again?


A Crazed Jet Stream. Yes, winds aloft are redefining the meaning of "high amplitude flow", record heat surging across western Canada with 80s reported as far north as the Arctic Circle, while a gyre of October-like air swirls across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, where temperatures are running 20-30 F. cooler than average. When, precisely, was the last time our weather was average?


A Mid-Summer Correction. NAM 2-meter temperature guidance shows free A/C pushing into the Ohio Valley and New England by midweek; sizzling 90s and 100-degree highs still commonplace from Texas into much of the western USA. There is a 1 in 3 chance of isolated frost by Wednesday morning over far northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Remarkable. Animation: NOAA and HAMweather.


Mother of All July Cool Fronts - 90F Next Week? Brisk weather continues today; in all probability tonight's MLB All-Star game will be the coolest ever played. We slowly warm in the coming days; a few T-storms popping up again late Saturday into early next week. All guidance shows a surge of heat next week, maybe a few days at or above 90F. Talk about a temperature turnaround. Meteogram: Weatherspark.


Lake Mead Levels to Drop to Historic Lows. More symptoms of a lingering, multi-year drought; here's an excerpt from PRWeb: "Lake Mead, the reservoir created by Hoover Dam, is anticipated this week to reach its lowest water level since the lake’s initial filling in the 1930s. The Bureau of Reclamation’s Boulder Canyon Operations Office is projecting the elevation to drop to 1,081.75 feet above sea level during the week of July 7, and to continue to drop, reaching approximately 1,080 feet in November of this year..."


Lake Mead Water Levels Since 1935. Nebraskaweatherphotos.org has more fascinating details, graphs and photos focused on the gradual decline of Lake Mead.


Driest Year Across California Since 1923-24. Lake Mead water levels are the lowest recorded since it started to fill up in the mid-30s. Looking at statewide data ithe period from June 30, 2013 to July 1, 2014 was the second driest in California history. That, and smoke plumes from western fires, is the subject of today's second Climate Matters segment: "Wildfires, extreme heat, and drought are all characteristics of the Western United States right now. What has one of the worst droughts in 500 hundred years brought with it? Shrinking reservoirs, including Lake Mead, can be seen all over the West. When will it end?"


6.5 Million American Homes Face Hurricane Risk. Realty Biz News has the story and highlights of a recent comprehensive study; here's the introduction: "More than 6.5 million homes along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts could be at risk of a storm surge from a hurricane, which could amount to nearly $1.5 trillion in potential reconstruction costs, according to the 2014 storm surge analysis conducted by CoreLogic..."

Image credit above: NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center via photopin cc.


Surge Could Do Serious Damage Here. The Herald-Tribune looks at the implications of a hurricane storm surge for southwestern Florida, from Sarasota to Naples and Fort Myers; here's an excerpt: "Southwest Florida has more residential real estate at risk from storm surge damage than almost any other metropolitan area in the country, a new report shows. If a major hurricane were to strike here, it would cost nearly $43 billion to rebuild the homes destroyed by the storm and subsequent surge in the region, according to data from housing researcher CoreLogic. Statewide, more than two million homes could be impacted and cost nearly $500 billion to replace..."

Photo credit above: "Storm surge swallows up the public beach near the city pier in Naples in 2005, after Hurricane Wilma powered through the city. A new report indicates storm surge could damage thousands of homes in this region." H-T ARCHIVE / 2005.


Swimsuits for Snow Boots. Freak Summer Snow and Hail Hit Siberia, Urals. RT News has the photos and article; here's an excerpt: "Snowdrifts piled up on the roads of Russia's Ural region on Saturday as an abnormal summer snowstorm hit the region, bringing the area into the spotlight once again after last year's meteorite fall. Siberia also witnessed a downpour of giant hailstones. Residents of the cities of Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk, located in Russia's eastern Ural region, were taken aback when it suddenly started snowing in the middle of summer on Saturday..."


Vietnam's Overdue Alliance with America. I didn't think I'd live long enough to see this headline, but after touring Vietnam earlier this year, seeing their market-based economy and remarkable work ethic, and sensing a growing concern and unease about China's aspirations, some sort of alliance may be all but inevitable. Here's a clip from The New York Times: "...Because of China’s recent territorial grabs at sea and its complete disregard for international law, we are now back to square one. Without a major strategic realignment, Vietnam’s island territories will simply be gobbled up by China. Our country must dispose of the myth of friendship with China and return to what Ho Chi Minh passionately advocated after World War II: an American-Vietnamese alliance in Asia. Ho’s sympathies with the United States and its platform of self-determination for all peoples went as far back as the Paris Peace Conference after World War I..."


Tree Houses: High-End Style Goes Out on a Limb. Put up a flat-screen TV, WIFI and a flush toilet and I'm there. Here's an excerpt from a story at The Boston Globe: "...Regardless of where the house is built, however, clients look at it as an escape. And that’s exactly the way B’fer Roth likes it. He can install electricity and plumbing and all that if customers insist, but that’s not his preference, truth be told. “The whole point of a treehouse is getting away from all the stuff we’re inundated with in the luxuries of our homes,” he said. “My ideal treehouse doesn’t have all the trappings of the modern urban house...”

Photo credit above: Nelson Treehouse and Supply. "Nelson Treehouse and Supply of Fall City, Wash., built this treehouse with the varied rooflines and the Arts-and-Crafts-style elements on the Cape."


How Coffee Protects Against Parkinson's. Good thing I had my triple-shot latte this morning - it's now possible to rationalize away almost anything. Here's a clip of an interesting article at medicalxpress.com: "...An epidemiological study of Parkinson's patients from two counties in south east Sweden examined a combination of a previously known protective factor – caffeine – and the genetic variant in GRIN2A. The findings show that individuals with this combination run a significantly lower risk of developing the disease..."


Stress-Busting Diet: Eight Foods That May Boost Resilience. I put down my donut just long enough to read an interesting article at NPR; here's a clip: "...There can be a bit of a vicious cycle," says , a professor of pediatrics and nutrition at Harvard University and a researcher at Boston Children's Hospital. "When we feel stressed we seek foods that are going to comfort us immediately, but often times those foods lead to surges and crashes in hormones and blood sugar that increase our susceptibility to new stresses..."

Photo credit above: "A nutrient-dense diet may help tamp down stress. And these foods may help boost our moods (clockwise from left): pumpkin seeds, sardines, eggs, salmon, flax seeds, Swiss chard and dark chocolate." Meredith Rizzo/NPR


Utilities to Battery-Powered Solar: Get Off Our Lawn. Grist has an interesting article for anyone considering trying to sell excess (free) solar energy back to the grid; here's an excerpt: "In Wisconsin, utilities are jacking up the price to connect to their electrical grid. In Oklahoma, utilities pushed through a law this spring that allows them to charge the people who own solar panels and wind turbines more to connect to their electrical grid. In Arizona, the state has decided to charge extra property taxes to households that are leasing solar panels. Welcome to the solar backlash..."


Apple Patent Hints the iPhone 6 Will Be Made of Indestructible Glass. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post: "A new Apple patent gives more weight to rumors that the next iPhone will be made of a nearly indestructible type of glass. Apple won a patent this week for “fused glass device housings," a new method of fusing together pieces of glass, which could be used to make casings for devices like the iPhone and iPad, Apple Insider reports..."


People Who Complain About Tornado Coverage Deserve To Miss Their Show. I understand the angst and frustration when the meteorologist interrupts your favorite show for a tornado warning. But here's the thing: TV stations are licensed by the FCC to serve the public interest. That very much includes passing on warnings for imminent, life-threatening weather from their local NWS offices. There are other (better) ways to get these warnings, including smartphone apps, but cut the poor TV meteorologist some slack. He's just doing his job. And you may think different (sorry Steve Jobs) when it's your neighborhood in the path of an EF-4. Here's a clip from The Vane at Gawker: "...Most television stations in the United States have policies in place that require their weather personnel to break into programming when a tornado warning is issued in their viewing area. As tornado warnings are only issued during imminent life-threatening severe weather situations, meteorologists need to get the word out as fast as they can so people in the way of the storms can take cover just in case the worst happens...


Runner Struck in the Head by Lightning, Finishes Third. And the gold medal winner for dumb-tenacity has to go to this guy - as reported by Fitish: "Over the weekend the Hardrock 100 ultramarathon wound its way through the mountains around Silverton, Colo. The men's winner set a course record. But more impressive or stupid or mind-boggling was that the third-place finisher, Adam Campbell of Canada, was struck by lightning. In the head. And then he kept running..."


65 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday, the coolest July 14 on record. Old record: 68 in 1884.

84 F. average high on July 14.

86 F. high on July 14, 2013.

.06" rain fell yesterday at KMSP.

July 14, 1980: Straight-line winds of nearly 100 mph causes enormous damage, mainly in Dakota County. 43 million dollars in damage was reported and 100 thousand people were without power.


TODAY: Fresh air. More clouds than sun. Winds: NW 15. Dew point: 46. High: 68

TUESDAY NIGHT: Great baseball weather (bring a sweatshirt). Slow clearing. Low: 52

WEDNESDAY: Bright sun, less wind. Perfect. High: 72

THURSDAY: Sunny, a bit milder. Dew point: 48. Wake-up: 58. High: 74

FRIDAY: Warm sunshine, more July-like. Wake-up: 60. High: near 80

SATURDAY: Sticky sun, T-storms late. Dew point: 65. Wake-up: 64. High: 82

SUNDAY: Patchy clouds, stray T-shower. Dry most of the day. Wake-up: 65. High: 81

MONDAY: Shocker: more T-storms, downpours. Wake-up: 64. High: 83


Climate Stories....

"Tornadoes of Fire" in N.W.T. Linked to Climate Change. Record heat (and sudden drought) has ignited a rash of wildfires across Canada's Northwest Territories, and the trends suggest warming since the 1970s is at least partly to blame for an increase in frequency, size and duration of wildfires. But is there a link to climate volatility? Here's an excerpt from Canada's CBC: "Climate change is responsible for more frequent and larger forest fires, such as the ones now plaguing the Northwest Territories, says an Edmonton professor. “What we are seeing in the Northwest Territories this year is an indicator of what to expect with climate change,” says Mike Flannigan, a professor of Wildland Fire in the University of Alberta’s renewable resources department. “Expect more fires, larger fires, more intense fires...”

Photo credit above: "A boy points to a fire on the other side of a lake near Gameti, N.W.T. Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta, says climate change is responsible for the hot, dry conditions that are causing fires to burn out of control." (Jenn Wetrade)


How A Flood-Prone Village In The U.S. Moved To Higher, Drier Ground. Expect to see more of this in the years ahead. Here's an excerpt from Thomson Reuters Foundation: "...So Valmeyer (Illinois) did what many vulnerable, disaster-prone communities around the world have considered: It moved to safer ground. Climate change, coupled with deforestation to make way for cities and farms and population growth that results in people living in increasingly vulnerable places, is leading to more severe and frequent natural disasters, scientists say. Those disasters are forcing millions to relocate temporarily or even permanently to safer areas. An estimated 31.7 million people were displaced by weather-related disasters in 2012 alone, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre..."

Photo credit above: "A 1993 map of plans for a new Valmeyer, Illinois, located on a bluff above the old flood-hit town." Photo courtesy of Dennis Knobloch.


8 Charts That Show How Climate Change is Making The World More Dangerous. The Guardian has the story - here's a clip: "...Flooding and mega-storms were by far the leading cause of disaster from 2000-2010. About 80% of the 3,496 disasters of the last decade were due to flooding and storms. Seas are rising because of climate change. So are extreme rain storms. There is growing evidence that warming temperatures are increasing the destructive force of hurricanes..."


Dr. Jason Box Interviewed by Bill Maher. Jason Box is Chief Scientist for the Dark Snow project. His recent award-winning documentary "Chasing Ice" showed, in stark details, the rate of ice loss taking place at northern latitudes, worldwide. This interview took place on July 12, 2014; here's the clip on YouTube.


Climate Change: Birds Most Influenced by Precipitation, Not Warming Temperatures. Nature World News has a story focused on new research; here's an excerpt: "...Although it would seem that warming temperatures associated with climate change would most greatly influence animal species like birds, a new study shows that precipitation is actually the key to bird adaptation. Past studies have shown that warming temperatures can push some animal species - including birds - into higher latitudes or higher elevations. However, few have explored the role that precipitation has on how they adapt to their environment..."

Photo credit above: "Although it would seem that warming temperatures associated with climate change would most greatly influence animal species like birds, a new study shows that precipitation is actually the key to bird adaptation." (Photo : Wikimedia Commons)


America's Oil Consumption is Rising, Not Falling, Outpacing China's. InsideClimate News has the details; here's an excerpt: "U.S. oil demand reversed course in dramatic fashion in 2013, as the nation's growth in crude consumption outpaced perennial leader China for the first time since 1999, according to oil company BP's annual compendium of world energy statistics. The U.S. increase follows two years of declines, and dampens hopes that the world's largest oil guzzler was permanently reining in its appetite for crude..."


Rupert Murdoch Doesn't Understand Climate Change Basics And That's a Problem. And that fundamental scientific ignorance and misinformation trickles down to his global media empire. The Guardian has the article; here's an excerpt: "...Rupert Murdoch's media outlets frequently publish opinion articles from non-experts who similarly downplay the risks we face from climate change. It's not surprising that Murdoch is misinformed on the subject if those biased non-experts are his sources of information. However, it's not just Murdoch who's being misinformed by these inaccurate and biased opinions, it's also the vast audience that his media empire reaches. Murdoch's media outlets are of course free to publish whatever misinformation they like. However, given their immense size and reach, it's difficult to offset the damage this misinformation causes to the public understanding about climate change..."

Stumbling into Spring (Minnesota average ice-out coming 10 days earlier than 2013)

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: May 2, 2014 - 10:52 PM

Getting Better

So it's come to this. Yesterday, when the sun finally came out in all its glory, the meteorologists I work with crept up to the Amish Doppler (window) and began clapping. Kind of sad. Moss is now forming on my north side. Daffodils coming up in the yard are doing the backstroke, but my rice paddies are coming along nicely.

Nearly 10 inches of precipitation has fallen on MSP since January 1, 3.63 inches wetter than average. With any luck a deepening drought spreading from California to the Plains won't creep back up to our latitude.

I still see a cool bias into much of May; the core of the jet stream still 200-400 miles farther south than usual for this time of year. But we're stumbling in the right direction.

Showers sprout near Duluth later today, but much of Minnesota salvages some sun with highs near 60F. A few light showers may brush far southern Minnesota Sunday morning - heavier T-storms are brewing for the middle of next week. A few could even be severe as temperatures rise above 70F.

In today's weather blog below: CO2 levels hit a new record, the most Great Lakes ice in April since 1973 and Minnesota ice-out dates are running 8 days later than average. Never a dull moment.


Stumbling Into Spring. Expect mid to upper 50s today, but a warming trend arrives next week. Not exactly a hot front, but a spike of warmth Wednesday may spark a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms nearby. Steadier rain gives way to clearing next Friday; ECMWF guidance suggesting more low 70s next weekend. Graphic: Weatherspark.


Weekend Showers. The best chance of a few instability showers today will come north and east of Duluth. A second (weak) system spreads a few light showers into southwestern Minnesota Sunday; rain will probably pass south and west of MSP with some high and mid level clouds nearby. 4 KM WRF data: NOAA and WeatherBell.


Drying Out. After this week's stalled storm and record rains from Pensacola to Tampa northward to Philadelphia and Long Island much of America dries out this weekend. Next week's northward shift of the jet stream may spark a wave of heavy showers and T-storms from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes by midweek.


Extended Outlook: East Coast Heats Up - Cool Bias Rockies to Upper Midwest. After warming into the 60s next week, even 70s by Wednesday, temperatures cool off a bit between May 8-12 from Denver to the Twin Cities and Green Bay as the jet stream continues to bulge southward, pulling cooler air out of Canada. Map: NOAA and HAMweather.


April Weather Highlights and Low-Lights. Here's an excerpt from Dr. Mark Seeley's always-illuminating WeatherTalk newsletter: "...Cooler and wetter than normal describes the month of April in Minnesota for a second consecutive year. April of 2014 was the 6th consecutive month with cooler than normal mean monthly temperatures reported. Most observers reported mean values for April temperature that were from 4 to 6 degrees F cooler than normal. Extremes for the month ranged from 82 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on April 9th to -11 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) on April 2nd. Only 9 days during the month brought above normal temperatures. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation on four dates during the month..."




April Climate Recap. Here are a few highlights from the most recent HydroClim Minnesota Update from the Minnesota DNR:

  • April precipitation totals were variable across Minnesota, ranging from less than two inches in southwest and north central Minnesota counties, to over six inches in east central, south central and southeast Minnesota locales. In the wetter areas, monthly precipitation totals approached or exceeded all-time record highs for the month of April.
  • Average monthly temperatures for April in Minnesota were below historical averages. It was the sixth consecutive month of below-average temperatures.
  • The U. S. Drought Monitor places portions of southwest Minnesota in the Moderate Drought category.
  • Stream discharge values are high to very high at most Minnesota monitoring locations. Minor flooding is occurring in some areas. Moderate flooding is underway or projected at a few locales along the Red River of the North.
  • Most lakes in the northern one-quarter of Minnesota remain ice covered. This spring, lake ice out dates are approximately eight days later than historical median ice out dates, but 10 days earlier than in 2013

Speaking of ice....

Wall of Ice Damages Homes, Threatens Resort Near Mille Lacs. It's deja vu all over again. Here's a clip from an article and video at The Star Tribune: "Driven by high winds, ice from Lake Mille Lacs has gone on a rampage in recent days, bursting into homes, tearing up the shoreline, blocking roads and forming massive mounds in yards. The problems are mostly in the Garrison, Minn., area on the western shore of the lake, which has taken the brunt of the east winds accompanying recent rains. Last year, it was the southeast corner of the lake, near Isle and Wahkon..."

Photo credit above: "Ice swept and damaged Randy Dykhoff's property along the shore north of Garrison, MN Thursday, May 1, 2014. Dykhoff, of Mound, was notified by the Sheriff's office of the damage that had occurred last Sunday. He said he carried several wheel barrow loads of ice through his kitchen. He has owned the property since 1997 and It was the first time he has experienced this." Photo: Elizabeth Flores.

 


Winter Won't Let Go: Great Lakes Still On Ice. The most April ice since 1973? Climate Central has an update; here's an excerpt: "April has come and gone but a record amount of ice still remains on the Great Lakes. This April was the lakes’ iciest on record after a near-record winter, and the season has been notable for how early ice formed and how long it’s lingered. At the close of April, nearly a quarter of the five Great Lakes — the largest group of lakes on Earth — still have ice on them and ice is likely to linger for weeks to come according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. That makes the month far and away the iciest April since recordkeeping began in 1973..."

Image credit: Climate Central and Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.


Alabama Tornado Outbreak 2014 By The Numbers: 20 Tornadoes, 153 Miles of Damage. Meteorologist Paul Gattis has a good update on the extent of damage at al.com; here's a clip: "It wasn’t the tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. In fact, it wasn’t even close. But the storms that swept across Alabama on Monday and into early Tuesday morning was the most significant outbreak since that historic day three years ago. According to storm surveys from the National Weather Service, 20 tornadoes touched down across central and northern Alabama – including two that touched down just north of the Alabama-Tennessee state line in Lincoln County, Tenn..."

Image credit above: "Sky View HSV used a quadcopter to capture footage from storm-ravaged areas in the Bay Hill Marina, Coxey community and along 7 Mile Post Road in Limestone County Wednesday, April 30, 2014." (Contributed by Sky View HSV).


Tornadoes Carve Scars Into The Earth That Are Visible From Space. The EF-4 that hit Vilonia and Mayflower was a monster; winds may have peaked close to 200 mph. The length, width and ferocity of the tornado becomes apparent when you can see the debris field from space. The Vane and Newsweek report; here's an excerpt: "Almost three dozen people were killed in the latest tornado outbreak that tore through the Deep South this week. The outbreak included several "long-track" tornadoes, which can drag across the landscape for tens and sometimes hundreds of miles, leaving behind scars on the earth's surface that can be seen from space. Gawker's The Vane blog created gifs out of satellite images that clearly show the scars, eerie reminders of the scale of the havok the tornadoes wreaked. These scars tend to dissapear in several months as vegetation regrows, though they linger for longer in more populated regions, according to The Vane..."

 

 

Image above: The Vane.

 



Mamma Mia! Another Tornado Video from Italy. More tornadoes in unlikely places. Mike Smith Enterprises Blog has the video clip.

 


 

Tornadoes Most Likely To Occur During Multi-Day Spans. That was certainly the case this past week, and it's something I see all the time. Red Orbit has an interesting article; here's a clip: "...In a report published by the journal Monthly Weather Review - Jeff Trapp, a planetary sciences professor at Purdue, said a bout of 20 or greater reported tornadoes had a 74 percent chance of occurring throughout a period of tornado activity sustained for three or more days. Throughout those exact same periods, a tornado with an intensity that scored 3 or higher out of 5 on the Enhanced Fujita scale had a 60 percent chance of hitting, the report added..."


In a report published by the journal Monthly Weather ReviewJeff Trapp, a planetary sciences professor at Purdue, said a bout of 20 or greater reported tornadoes had a 74 percent chance of occurring throughout a period of tornado activity sustained for three or more days. Throughout those exact same periods, a tornado with an intensity that scored 3 or higher out of 5 on the Enhanced Fujita scale had a 60 percent chance of hitting, the report added.

“Two extreme tornado events last year led to 32 deaths, injured more than 377 and cost $2 billion in damage and inspired this study,” Trapp said in recent statement. “Unfortunately, the devastating tornadoes these past few days, tragically, seem to be bearing out the results.”


Read more at http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113135713/tornado-activity-over-multiple-days-050114/#cTMX1CYYq7iuhWJC.99

No Drought Relief In Sight For Desiccated West. Climate Central has more on a deepening drought that's spreading from California into the Plains; here's an excerpt: "...The driest places today are the places that have been dry for 2 or 3 years or longer: California, northwest Nevada and the southern Great Plains of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, northeast New Mexico and along the Colorado-Kansas border. In other words, drought is bringing the dust back to the Dust Bowl territory of the 1930s..."

Image credit above: U.S. Drought Portal.


What Parts Of The Country Get The Worst Weather Predictions? One year probably doesn't "prove" anything, statistically, but every meteorologist truly does believe that their market, their city, is the hardest to predict the weather for. A friend forwarded this story along to me, courtesy of ForecastAdvisor, The Vane at Gawker. Here's a clip: "...The easiest variable to predict was precipitation, with an average of 82.1 percent accuracy. This is largely because precipitation is simplified to a "yes/no" proposition—predicting clear skies every day would net you 70 percent accuracy in many parts of the country—but also because rain and snow are also fairly predictable across large swathes of the U.S. It rarely rains in the southwest, and the outlets had the most difficulty along the Gulf Coast (where intense thunderstorms are hit-or-miss most of the year) and especially around the eastern Great Lakes, where a large portion of the yearly precipitation falls in the form of lake-effect snow..."

A Time-Lapse Of All The Earthquakes From This Record-Breaking April. I'm not a seismologist, and I don't play one on TV, but I seem to recall that tremors often come in waves, in swarms. Here's an excerpt of an interesting story at Gizmodo: "...According to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) which issues alerts for tsunamis, April was a very busy month for the earth's crust. Of course there are earthquakes every hour of every day, but the world usually only seens one or two earthquakes per month that are 6.5 magnitude or higher. This April there were 13, including five that were higher than 7.8, prompting tsunami warnings. "Easily a record for this institution," reports PTWC..."


Sooo...Our Nuclear Missiles Are Run By Computers That Still Use 8-Inch Floppy Disks? This story gave me a warm and fuzzy. But are we communicating between silos with CB radio? CBS News and Huffington Post Tech have the video and story; here's an excerpt: "Contrary to what cartoons may have you believe, there’s no giant red button that detonates America’s land-based nuclear missiles. They’re actually operated by -- wait for it -- old-school computers that run 8-inch floppy disks. On a recent tour of one of the nation’s Air Force nuclear missile facilities in Wyoming, Leslie Stahl of CBS' "60 Minutes" made the surprising discovery about the archaic state of technology inside the facilities. Dana Meyers, a 23-year-old missileer working at the facility, told Stahl of the floppy disks: "I had never seen one of these until I got down in missiles..."


Twitter Is Not Dying. As a retort to a recent article at The Atlantic, Slate makes the case that Twitter is a different creature altogether, and should be judged accordingly. Here's an excerpt: "...But Wall Street—along with everyone else who’s down on Twitter because it has “a growth problem”—is making a mistake by comparing it to Facebook. Twitter is not a social network. Not primarily, anyway. It’s better described as a social media platform, with the emphasis on “media platform.” And media platforms should not be judged by the same metrics as social networks..."

 

 

Tweet above: @TheEllenShow.

 


Former FCC Head Michael Power Talks Future Of Cable. Listen to an interesting perspective on bundling, ala carte options and network neutrality at marketplace.org; here's a clip: "Big cable companies continue to just get bigger. In response to Comcast and Time Warner's merger earlier this year, AT&T and DirecTV are thinking of doing the same. Which got former FCC chairman Michael Powell thinking: Why are all these mergers happening? "One of the things I think is a serious issue is that the economy has been strained," he said. "I think the model has to find a way to find more affordable, more accessible packages, given the strains of the economy..."


New Smart Bike Offers Turn By Turn Navigation. Soon your bicycle will be smarter than you are. Sorry, that sounded harsh, but amazing new tech is showing up (everywhere). Gizmag reports: "...Vanhawks is hoping to get enough Valours on the road to form a mesh network of users. Through this online community, users will be able to tap into data on potholes, closed roads, blocked lanes collected by other Valours to choose safer and smarter routes. In addition, if one's Valour is stolen and another user happens to pass it by, a notification is sent via the application to alert the original owner of its whereabouts...."

 


Teenager Takes His Great-Grandmother To The Prom. Here's an excerpt of a heart-warming story, courtesy of FOX News: "A few months back, Delores received a telephone call from her great-grandson. Austin is 19-years-old, a senior at Parkway High School in Rockford, Ohio. And he had a very important question for his “Granny DD.” “I asked her if she would be my prom date,” Austin told me. “How cool would it be to take my great-grandmother to prom?


Lost In Translation: A "Poo Poo Smoothie"? It's not as bad as it sounds at first blush, reports The Wall Street Journal; here's a clip: "It takes a taste test to know that Burger King’s latest drink is nothing like what it sounds like. Recently, the global food chain (motto: Taste is King) began marketing a new drink to Chinese consumers called the “PooPoo Smoothie.” The name is meant to be playful, as the smoothie is actually mango-flavored. When the Wall Street Journal went to try the drink at a branch on Shanghai’s Yuyuan Road, a server behind the counter explained that the drink’s name sounds phonetically similar to the Mandarin term for bubbles, or paopao..."

Photo credit above: Laurie Burkitt/The Wall Street Journal.


59 F. high in the Twin Cities Friday.

65 F. average high on May 2.

48 F. high on May 2, 2013.

Trace of rain fell yesterday.


TODAY: Partly sunny, stiff breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 58

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cool. Low: 42

SUNDAY: Sunny intervals. Showers far southern Minnesota. High: 57

MONDAY: Early shower, then partial clearing. Wake-up: 43. High: 57

TUESDAY: Breezy, turning milder with some sun. Wake-up: 41. High: 63

WEDNESDAY: Warmer with T-storms, some strong/severe? Wake-up: 54. High: 74

THURSDAY: Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Wake-up: 51. High: 63

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, drying out. Wake-up: 48. High: 65


Climate Stories....

High Carbon Dioxide Levels Set a Record. SFGate has an update; here's a clip: "...The instruments that have been measuring carbon dioxide for more than 50 years showed that for the entire month of April, levels of the gas exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time, said Pieter Tans, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency who monitors the instrument record. The precise average for the entire month was 401.25 parts per million as of Tuesday, he said, and that level had only reached the crucial 400 threshold for the first time during a single day a year ago before dipping slightly..."


Feds: Wildfire Season Is Expected To Go Way Over Budget, And Climate Change Is To Blame. It's going to be a long, potentially record-setting fire season for much of the western USA, especially California. Here's an excerpt of a story at Salon: "...With climate change contributing to longer and more intense wildfire seasons, the dangers and costs of fighting those fires increase substantially,” Rhea said. The report notes that fire seasons have gotten 60-80 days longer over the last three decades, and that annual acreages burned have more than doubled. One way or another, the fires are going to be fought — it’s not really a problem anyone’s able to ignore. But the agencies are pushing for a change to the way we fund their efforts: bipartisan legislation recently introduced in Congress, and backed by Obama, would treat the worst wildfires as natural disasters, like hurricanes, qualifying them for special relief funds not subject to budget caps."

Photo credit above: "This Aug. 16, 2013 file photo shows helicopters battling the 64,000 acre Beaver Creek Fire north of Hailey, Idaho." (AP Photo/Times-News, Ashley Smith, File).


This Year's Wildfires Could Incinerate The Nation's Fire Budget. Here's a clip from The Center for Investigative Reporting: "...The upcoming wildfire season could cost $400 million more to fight than the Forest Service and Interior Department have in their available budgets, according to a report those agencies released today. The forecast estimates that the Forest Service and Interior will need to spend a combined total of about $1.8 billion fighting wildfires this year (though the actual amount could be significantly higher or lower), while only $1.4 billion is available for that activity..." (File image: EPA).


As Wildfire Fear Rises, U.S. Tanker Fleet Incomplete. The Washington Post reports.


How To Convince Conservative Christians That Global Warming Is Real. Mother Jones has the story of Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, a conservative, right-leaning, Evangelical Christian. Who also happens to be one of the world's leading climate scientists. Here's an excerpt: "...Why is Hayhoe in the spotlight? Simply put, millions of Americans are evangelical Christians, and their belief in the science of global warming is well below the national average. And if anyone has a chance of reaching this vast and important audience, Hayhoe does. "I feel like the conservative community, the evangelical community, and many other Christian communities, I feel like we have been lied to," explains Hayhoe on the latest episode of the Inquiring Minds podcast. "We have been given information about climate change that is not true. We have been told that it is incompatible with our values, whereas in fact it's entirely compatible with conservative and with Christian values..."

Image credit: Katharine Hayhoe.


Why Doesn't Anyone Know How To Talk About Global Warming? Smithsonian Magazine poses the question; here's the introduction to their story: "When Vox.com launched last month, the site's editor-in-chief, Ezra Klein, had a sobering message for us all: more information doesn't lead to better understanding. Looking at research conducted by a Yale law professor, Klein argued that when we believe in something, we filter information in a way that affirms our already-held beliefs. "More information...doesn't help skeptics discover the best evidence," he wrote. "Instead, it sends them searching for evidence that seems to prove them right..." (Image above: NASA).


Solar Comes of Age. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Mark Andrew at The Star Tribune: "...Solar energy enjoyed a surge last year never before seen. 2013 global installations was over a third of all solar installed before it; in the U.S. new solar spiked to 10 gigawatts, an increase of over one-third in a single year. That translates to something like 1.6 million American households being powered by solar today. I was astonished to learn that the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission recently granted approval of 150MW of new electrical capacity by choosing a solar project over natural gas based largely on economics. "This is the first time solar has competed favorably with coal or natural gas in a head-to-head economic competition and won", said Michael Krause, a national authority on clean energy and green roofs and Founder of the Minneapolis-based Green Institute. "Solar is coming into its own as a key source of our state's energy portfolio"... (File image above: Wikipedia).

hen Vox.com launched last month, the site's editor-in-chief, Ezra Klein, had a sobering message for us all: more information doesn't lead to better understanding. Looking at research conducted by a Yale law professor, Klein argued that when we believe in something, we filter information in a way that affirms our already-held beliefs. "More information...doesn’t help skeptics discover the best evidence," he wrote. "Instead, it sends them searching for evidence that seems to prove them right."

 

It's disheartening news in many ways—for one, as Klein points out, it cuts against the hopeful hypothesis set out in the Constitution and political speeches that any disagreement is merely a misunderstanding, an accidental debate caused by misinformation. Applied to our highly polarized political landscape, the study's results make the prospect of change seem incredibly difficult




Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/talking-about-climate-change-how-weve-failed-and-how-we-can-fix-it-180951070/#FaJ5MTAugXFyECYE.99
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Solar Comes of Age. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Mark Andrew at The Star Tribune: "...Solar energy enjoyed a surge last year never before seen. 2013 global installations was over a third of all solar installed before it; in the U.S. new solar spiked to 10 gigawatts, an increase of over one-third in a single year. That translates to something like 1.6 million American households being powered by solar today. I was astonished to learn that the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission recently granted approval of 150MW of new electrical capacity by choosing a solar project over natural gas based largely on economics. "This is the first time solar has competed favorably with coal or natural gas in a head-to-head economic competition and won", said Michael Krause, a national authority on clean energy and green roofs and Founder of the Minneapolis-based Green Institute. "Solar is coming into its own as a key source of our state's energy portfolio"... (File image above: Wikipedia).

Cooler, Cloudier Today - Monday Heat Spike (8" rainfall deficit for parts of Minnesota since late June)

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: September 8, 2013 - 12:26 PM

A Baffling Pattern

 

My official winter prediction is out: "colder with some snow." 100% confidence - take it to the bank.

Note to self: when in doubt be vague.

We're in an ENSO-neutral state in the Pacific, but I'm seeing a slight trend toward a mild El Nino warming phase, which may favor a (slightly) warmer winter for the Upper Midwest. The 6-month outlook is a curiosity - just tell me it's going to rain, Paul.

T-storms may brush much of Minnesota Monday as overheated air pushes north, but it won't be the sustained soaking we need. If the sun is out for a few hours we may see mid-90s tomorrow, with a dew point near 70F. Another "heat day" for area schools?

Extreme heat in recent weeks has accelerated evaporation of water from lakes & fields, accelerating drought. The 3rd week of September brings a better chance of rain. Fingers crossed.

Only 725 tornadoes have touched down on the USA in 2013; 9 in Minnesota (all EF-0). Only 17 years since 1953 have seen fewer tornadoes thru August. We may set a new record for the latest (first) hurricane on record in the Atlantic.

It's too early for complacency. In 2001 the first hurricane formed on Sept. 10. There were 9 hurricanes later that season.

 

* 500 mb forecast winds aloft, valid 12z this morning, courtesy of UCAR.

 

 

50 Shades Of Gray. Showers and T-storms should stay north of MSP today, but clouds will linger much of Sunday; temperatures 10-15F cooler than Saturday. Flood Watches are in effect for much of North Dakota and eastern Montana. Map: Ham Weather.

 

Cooler Sunday - Monday Heat Spike. NAM guidance shows temperatures at least 10F cooler today than Saturday, in fact highs hold in the 70s up north. By Monday a storm tracking over northern Minnesota will yank super-heated air north - a possibility of mid-90s by late Monday afternoon, even some upper 90s south/west of MSP. Model data above: Ham Weather.

 

Tropical Monday, Then A Taste Of September. ECMWF forecast highs (top trend line) and dew points (bottom trend line) above, courtesy of Weatherspark, shows a high of 99F Monday. I doubt it will get that hot, but mid-90s seem likely if there's any sun Monday afternoon. The best chance of a Monday shower or T-shower? Morning hours, with the best chance of convection over northern MInnesota. We cool off into the low 70s by Thursday, with cool temperatures and 40-degree dew points spilling over into Saturday.

 

Rainfall Departure From Normal: June 26 - September 3. The greatest rainfall deficit is showing up over far southeastern Minnesota, over 8" below normal from near Lake City to Winona. Much of southwest and central Minnesota is running a 6-7" rainfall shortage since late June, only far northern counties above average in the rainfall department. Source: MN DNR and the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

 

Summer Hangs Tough. Dry, desert air is pushing across the Plains into the Upper Midwest by Monday, sparking a few showers and T-storms from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. Monsoon T-storms flare up over the southwestern USA, while another cool front pushes into New England - fairly dry weather over much of the South. 84-hour NAM: NOAA.

 

September Starts Cool And Dry. Here's an excerpt from Dr. Mark Seeley's latest edition of WeatherTalk: "...Rainfall deficits continue to mount in many parts of the state. The U.S. Drought Monitor now shows that over 53 percent of the state landscape is in moderate to severe drought. Severe drought is now designated for parts of Stearns, Sherburne, Benton, Wright, Meeker, and Kandiyohi Counties in central Minnesota. These counties and others had been drought-free since mid-May. Volume flow on many Minnesota watersheds is down as well, in some cases well below average for this time of year. Unfortunately the outlook favors warm and dry weather through the third week of September for most of the state...."

 

Warm Weather Keeps Pools Open Longer, But Hits Farms With Extreme Drought. Here's a clip from a story at The Star Tribune: ...“It’s a bit disconcerting,” said University of Minnesota Extension climatologist Mark Seeley. “That’s pushing them right back into the predicament they were in last year." In fact, last year’s drought that hit Minnesota from midsummer into early winter was among the worst in state history. In April 2012, nearly 98 percent of the state was in some kind of drought condition A wet later part of winter and spring alleviated that, but now drought has returned after a streak of little rainfall and lingering heat. Since July, Seeley said, rainfall for central Minnesota is 5 to 7 inches short of average, stressing crops. “They’ve been sucking the water out of soil,” he said..."

 

"Ask Paul". Weather-related questions, comments (and threats):

Hi Paul,

"Is it a fact or a myth that a tornado will skip over a body of water? Someone told me that they were out in a boat and weren't worried about a tornado warning because they'd be safe on water. I'm not sure that's a good idea! Thank you!"

Nancy Hartman, Burnsville

Nancy - your gut is correct. A lake, river (or valley) won't deter a tornado, especially a large tornado. A tornado is a process, not an object; the larger dynamics and wind inflow into a severe thunderstorm drive the intensification or weakening of a funnel, not the surface the vortex passes over. I've seen numerous instances of a tornado passing over water, transitioning to a waterspout, then back to tornado as it passes over land again. Another important point: severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes usually produce intense lightning; another reason you don't want to be on a lake (or beach). Thanks for a great question/observation.

"Is there a weather club/group in the Twin Cities? I did a Google search and couldn't find one. This would allow my friend and family a reprieve as well as enabling me to chat with other weather geeks. Thanks so much!

Kae Evensen

Kae- A good place to start is the Twin Cities Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, which has frequent meetings with interesting topics/guest speakers and a chance to network with local weather enthusiasts and meteorologists. Good luck!

 

Extreme Weather Snoozer: No Hurricanes, And Low Tornado Numbers In 2013. Here's an excerpt of a good overview of the (miraculously quiet) tornado and hurricane season of 2013 from Capital Weather Gang meteorologist Jason Samenow: "...Going back further, a small group of years have been quieter. “There have been 17 years since 1953 with fewer tornadoes through August than what we’ve seen reported in 2013,” SPC’s warning coordination meteorologist Greg Carbin says. “I think it is fair to say that 2013 is in the least active 25% of all years in the last 62 years.” Of course, the year is far from over..."

Image credit above: "Black line is 2013 tornado report tally year to date. Other lines represent other years and 2005-2012 average." (NOAA SPC)

 

Nearing Record For Latest (First) Hurricane In The Atlantic. Yes, this season may wind up being a dud for hurricanes, but I'm not sure I'd take that bet, not yet. In today's Climate Matters we look at previous quiet starts to a handful of hurricane seasons that wound up being VERY active: "Since record keeping began, the latest the first hurricane has formed in the Atlantic is September 11th. We're only a few days away from breaking that record. But just because we haven't seen a hurricane yet, doesn't mean you should let your guard down. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas shows us how the seasons with late hurricane starts panned out."

 

Long Overdue For A (Major) Hurricane. It's been 8 years since America has been struck by a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (Wilma in 2005). If we go 4 more days without a hurricane we'll set a new record (for latest-first hurricane in the Atlantic basin). But it's still early to call the hurricane season a bust. Gustav formed on September 11, 2002, followed by 3 more hurricanes. Erin didn't form until September 9, 2001. It was one of 9 hurricanes that year, 4 of them major Category 3 storms. Graphics: WeatherNation TV.

 

 
1984. Diana didn't become a hurricane (first of the season) until September 10th. That season tropical storms were observed in the Atlantic basin as late as Christmas Eve. Source: NHC and WeatherNation TV.

 

 
2001. Hurricane Erin didn't form until September 9, 2001. That season went on to produce 9 hurricanes in the Atlantic, including 4 Category 3+ storms.

 

 
2002. The first hurricane of the season in 2002 was "Gustav" on September 11. A total of 8 tropical storms and hurricanes formed between September 11 - 30, 2002. Like flipping on a switch. My point? It's still a bit early to let our guard down - premature for complacency in Hurricane Alley.

 

Lackluster Hurricane Season Could Still Rev Up. Yes, it's amazingly quiet in the tropics, but history teaches us that it would probably be premature to let our guard down just yet. Here's a clip from a story at Live Science: "...The lack of hurricanes can be blamed on westerly winds, Weber said. So far this summer, there have been strong winds blowing from west to east across the Atlantic, which have systematically destroyed developing storms and prevented them from strengthening and growing into well-organized hurricanes, Weber said. Hurricanes are fueled by the transfer of heat from the ocean to the upper atmosphere, but they depend on a relatively symmetrical, rotating system to get going. They form best in calm conditions, with warm surface temperatures, Weber added. A second, lesser factor: Dry air and dust have also been blowing westward from North Africa's Sahel region, hampering development of early season hurricanes that often form near the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic, Weber said..." (File photo of "Katia" courtesy of NASA).

 

Shelf Cloud. Thanks to Dixie Imholt for passing this one along: "This was taken from the South Shore of Madeline Island overlooking Long Island, where we have a summer home. I grew up in southern Florida and so have seen lots of spectacular cloud formations, but this was very unique. It was like a giant claw that just moved across the lake. The storm approaching us was not nearly as bad on our side of the island (as foreboding as it looked) but we are on the lee side of the island. The north side of theisland folks said it was like a hurricane."

 

Yosemite Fire, Now California's 3rd Largest, To Intensify - Officials. Here's an update on the Yosemite Rim Fire from Reuters: "A wildfire that has consumed parts of Yosemite National Park and charred an area greater than the city of Dallas, Texas, is expected to intensify on Friday and is now California's third largest wildfire on record, fire managers said. The 20-day Rim Fire, named for the popular Rim of the World looking, is expected to burn another two weeks, they added. The blaze has blackened about 246,350 acres (99,694 hectares), or 385 square miles, of timber and chaparral in the rugged northern California forests since it broke out on Aug. 17. Fanned by wind in hot and dry weather, the fire has grown by almost 10,000 acres since Thursday, although it has stayed mostly within containment lines that firefighters have drawn around 80 percent of the blaze's permimeter..."

Photo credit above: "In this photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, Crews clear California Highway 120 of debris, as crews continue to fight the Rim Fire near Yosemite National Park in California Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2013. The massive wildfire is now 80 percent contained according to a state fire spokesman. The Rim Fire’s southeast flank in Yosemite National Park is expected to remain active where unburned fuels remain between containment lines and the fire." (AP Photo/U.S. Forest Service, Mike McMillan).

 

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Predominant During Cold Winter Months. Maybe I should have saved this for January, but maybe there's still time for you to shack up with your good buddy down in Scottsdale or Sarasota for a few well-timed months. Here's an excerpt from redOrbit: "A new multinational study has linked cardiovascular risk factors to cold weather. Based on cross-sectional data from 10 studies over seven countries, researchers found such risk factors occur more in the winter than in the summer. “Deaths from cardiovascular disease are higher in winter and lower in summer. We decided to conduct a large scale study to see whether cardiovascular risk factors have a seasonal pattern which could explain the seasonality in deaths,” said Dr. Pedro Marques-Vidal of Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Lausanne (IUMSP)..."

 

9 Questions About Syria You Were Too Embarrassed To Ask. A bleak topic? Absolutely, but I think I have a better understanding of just how hopeless the situation really is after reading this Max Fisher article at The Washington Post.

 

USAA Admits That Some "Totaled" Cars Were Sold. So that's why I got such a deal on my newest purchase! I was told the car was "extra-clean", but little did I know... Here's more from mysanantonio.com: "USAA officials now admit that some vehicles it branded as total losses after being damaged by Hurricane Sandy's floodwaters later were resold and put back on the road. The San Antonio-based insurer totaled some 4,000 customer vehicles damaged during last year's storm in the Northeast. USAA earmarked 174 of those vehicles to be sold for parts only because they had no titles. But USAA later found some buyers who bought them at auto auctions fraudulently obtained clean titles with the intention of putting them on the road again...."

Photo credit above: AP. "This file photo shows thousands of cars that were damaged in Superstorm Sandy and stored on the runways at Calverton Executive Airpark in Calverton, N.Y. USAA totaled some 4,000 customer vehicles that had been damaged, but officials for the San Antonio-based insurer now admit that some vehicles that had been totaled instead were resold and put back on the road. USAA had earmarked 174 vehicles to be sold for parts only, but has found that some were fraudulently given clean titles."

 

The 147 Companies That Control Everything. Here's an excerpt from a story at Forbes: "Three systems theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich have taken a database listing 37 million companies and investors worldwide and analyzed all 43,060 transnational corporations and share ownerships linking them. They built a model of who owns what and what their revenues are and mapped the whole edifice of economic power. They discovered that global corporate control has a distinct bow-tie shape, with a dominant core of 147 firms radiating out from the middle. Each of these 147 own interlocking stakes of one another and together they control 40% of the wealth in the network..."

Graphic credit above: "Visualizing the "super entity." Courtesy: New Scientist.

 

Visual Mental Health Break. Check out this remarkable video from Gizmodo: "When was the last time you spent your afternoon in a field watching the clouds pass? Your answer is about to be, "why just now, thank you" after viewing Suishu Ikeda's mesmerizing time-lapses of Japan's summer skies."

 

These Really Exist: Giant Concrete Arrows That Point Your Way Across America. My father forwarded this to me, a fascinating tale from Conde Nast Travelers; here's a snippet: "...On August 20, 1920, the United States opened its first coast-to-coast airmail delivery route, just 60 years after the Pony Express closed up shop. There were no good aviation charts in those days, so pilots had to eyeball their way across the country using landmarks. This meant that flying in bad weather was difficult, and night flying was just about impossible. The Postal Service solved the problem with the world’s first ground-based civilian navigation system: a series of lit beacons that would extend from New York to San Francisco. Every ten miles, pilots would pass a bright yellow concrete arrow..."

 

Why Do Our Best Ideas Come To Us In The Shower? Hmmm. Bathroom shower? Rain shower? Bridal shower? I'm so confused, but Mental Floss takes us the heart of the matter: "...Research shows you’re more likely to have a creative epiphany when you’re doing something monotonous, like fishing, exercising, or showering. Since these routines don’t require much thought, you flip to autopilot. This frees up your unconscious to work on something else. Your mind goes wandering, leaving your brain to quietly play a no-holds-barred game of free association. This kind of daydreaming relaxes the prefrontal cortex—the brain’s command center for decisions, goals, and behavior. It also switches on the rest of your brain’s “default mode network” (DMN) clearing the pathways that connect different regions of your noggin. With your cortex loosened up and your DMN switched on, you can make new, creative connections that your conscious mind would have dismissed...

 

Betty White, "Breaking Bad" Earn Guiness World Records Titles. Here's an excerpt from NBC's The Today Show: "Betty White has had a career for the record books, and finally, it’s getting officially acknowledged: The 2014 edition of the "Guinness World Records" book will now list the 91-year-old comedian and actress as the record-holder for Longest TV Career for an Entertainer (Female)....White was in good company among other record holders from the world of pop culture this year; AMC's "Breaking Bad" will be listed in the new "Guinness" as the Highest-Rated TV Series, thanks to a metascore of 99 out of 100 on MetaCritic.com..."

 

94 F. high Saturday in the Twin Cities.

75 F. average high on September 7.

72 F. high on September 7, 2012.

18 days at or above 90 F. this year in the Twin Cities. Average is 14.

 

 

TODAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a few showers (heavier showers/T-storms central and northern MN). Dew point: 57 Winds: E 10-15. High: 77

 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, humid. Low: 65

 

MONDAY: Heat spike. AM shower or T-storm possible. Hazy sun, very hot winds. Dew point: 68. High: 96

 

TUESDAY: Early shower, then partial clearing. Wake-up: 68. High: 83

 

WEDNESDAY: Warm sun, less humidity. Dew point: 55. Wake-up: 63. High: 84

 

THURSDAY: Sunny & pleasant. Dew point: 43. Wake-up: 58. High: 77

 

FRIDAY: Blue sky, feels like September. Wake-up: 50. High: 73

 

SATURDAY: Showers developing, possible thunder. Wake-up: 48. High: 77

 

* Photo above courtesy of Gary Teske.

 

Climate Stories...

 

"I fear that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots." - Albert Einstein

 

Most Island Nations Have Yet To Come To Grips With The Possibilities Of Relocation. Greenwire has the story at eenews.net; here's an excerpt: "....Climate change and the response to climate change is not something that you do this and not the other," Tong said this week. "We in Kiribati are acknowledging the reality that our land area will be reduced. ... The question is, then, what do we do? Do we hang onto it? It is our national strategy to consider both." Grappling with the possibility that rising sea levels might force island dwellers off their land is one of the biggest and most existential threats Pacific countries face from climate change. Yet leaders meeting here for the 44th Pacific Island Forum say the topic remains so uncomfortable that finding a common message about climate-induced migration is nearly impossible..."

 

Global Warming Has Increased Risk Of Record Heat, Scientists Say. Phys.org has the story - here's a clip: "...In the north central and northeastern United States, extreme weather is more than 4 times as likely to occur than it was in the pre-industrial era, according to a new study by Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford associate professor of Environmental Earth System Science, and Martin Scherer, a research assistant in the department....

* USA Today takes a look at how frequency of extreme heat and coastal flooding have changed in recent decades.

 

Global Warming Update: Record Heat Is 4 Times More Likely Now Than In Pre-Industrial Times. A slightly different angle on the same story from Popular Science: "Here's your latest global warming update: It's still happening. Intense heat is now four times more likely to strike in the U.S. than it was in pre-industrial times, according to a new study from Stanford University researchers. July 2012 was the hottest month on record in the lower 48 states, and the summer brought the "most severe and extensive drought in at least 25 years," according to the USDA. And it seems summers like last year's are going to become more commonplace, with 2012-esque temps becoming more likely, specifically in the north-central and northeastern United States. This study follows on the heels of a recently leaked draft of an Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change report, which noted that scientists believe we are experiencing more heat waves because of climate change--which yes, we're still sure humans are causing...." (File photo: NOAA).

 

Ice Melting Faster In Greenland, Antarctica In U.N. Leak. The IPCC is about to release another climate update; Bloomberg Businessweek is running a story with an alleged leak from this upcoming report; here's a clip: "Ice in Antarctica and Greenland is disappearing faster and may drive sea levels higher than predicted this century, according to leaked United Nations documents. Greenland’s ice added six times more to sea levels in the decade through 2011 than in the previous 10 years, according to a draft of the UN’s most comprehensive study on climate change. Antarctica had a fivefold increase, and the UN is raising its forecast for how much the two ice sheets will add to Earth’s oceans by 2100. The changes in the planet’s coldest areas are a “very good indicator” of a warming planet, according to Walt Meier, a research scientist with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration..."

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