So, how's your fantasy football team doing? (Crickets) Not quite working out the way you thought? Wait, you weren't able to predict injuries or trades weeks in advance? Welcome to my world.

The physics that powers our weather models isn't perfect. Neither is the data, the fuel that fuels the models. It's a little like putting old gasoline into a '68 Dodge, wondering why you can't get good mileage. Junk in, junk out. The winter forecast for Minnesota depends on El Niño, snow depth in Siberia and wobbles in the general circulation we can't even track today.

A year ago we were digging out from 3-plus inches of snow. The storm that slushed up the metro Nov. 10-11 left a foot on central Minnesota. The first nine days of November 2015 were 11.6 degrees warmer than average — more like Topeka, Kan.

One to 2 inches of badly needed rain is about to recharge soil moisture; the heaviest rains come tonight. By the time it's cold enough to snow, the moisture will be gone; a few flakes on Thursday, a dull reminder that it's mid-November. I'm betting on a pale-green Thanksgiving.