"How To Tell If Your Symptoms Are The Flu Or Just A Cold"
 
"The flu and the common cold are nasty respiratory illnesses with some similar symptoms. Here’s how to tell the difference. In the winter literally everyone seems to be getting sick. Your coworker won’t stop coughing and your kid keeps coming home from school a snotty mess, and a box of tissues barely lasts you one day. Contrary to popular belief, cold weather does not make you sick — but respiratory viruses (namely, influenza) do tend to peak during the fall and winter. In the US, flu season typically lasts from October to March. However, a nasty case of sniffles and aches during the winter doesn’t always mean you have the flu. Often, it’s just a cold, which you can get any time of the year. The common cold and flu are both contagious respiratory illnesses that can make you feel miserable, but they are caused by different viruses. Some flu symptoms may mimic a cold, but the flu tends to be much more serious and deadly — so it’s important to know the difference between these two illnesses. Obviously, only a doctor can diagnose you, but knowing how to recognize symptoms is always helpful. So how can you tell if your symptoms mean you have a cold or the flu, and what is the best treatment? We spoke to Dr. Tania Elliott, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health in New York City, to find out."
 
 

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Cold and Flu Forecast - Minneapolis
 
According to Pollen.com, the Cold and Flu forecast through early next week suggests that we will be running and medium to medium-high levels. 
 
 

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"14 Ways to Avoid Colds and Flu"
 
"Are you avoiding your co-worker with that hacking cough, cold, or flu in the cubicle next to you? Do you draw your hand back from every doorknob? Have cold-and-flu phobia? Get a grip before the grippe gets you. Weve consulted dozens of medical experts to bring you 14 ways to avoid colds and flu this season. Every time you shake someones hand, wash yours: But dont stop there. Wash them as much as possible, says Mark Mengel, MD, chair of community and family medicine at Saint Louis University School of Medicine. Running lots of water over your hands will dilute any germs and send them down the drain. Keep your hands off: Touching your nose and your eyes may hurt you, Mengel says. Those are the most common places for germs to get in."
 
 
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"Ice rescue prompts angler safety warning"
 
"Despite high winds, thin ice and wide swaths of open water, a handful of anglers decided to try their luck on Upper Red Lake Saturday afternoon. When two of those anglers didn't come home, search teams scoured the lake. According to the Red Lake Police Department, the anglers were found after midnight, stranded on a chunk of ice which had broken off and drifted out into open water. They were rescued safely and treated for hypothermia. These kind of rescues are pretty common on Upper Red Lake. It's a large, shallow body of water. That means it often freezes early, but the ice can be unstable. Waves build up quickly, cracking apart ice sheets, sometimes with anglers onboard. In 2015, 50 anglers had to be rescued. But this year's rescue is earlier than usual. DNR recreation safety coordinator Lisa Dugan, sees it as a cautionary tale. "Some lakes may have frozen early," she said. "But with temperatures in the 40s coming up this week, it might not be safe." She recommends anglers stay off the ice until it's at least 4 inches thick, and head for land if it seems unstable at all."
 
 
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Recent Cold Weather Making Ice on Area Lakes and Ponds
 
Ok folks - I know there A LOT of eager anglers excited that the recent cold blast has been making ice on area lakes and ponds, BUT please make sure you aren't putting yourself in danger on newly formed ice! The MN DNR has some basic guidelines on how thick the ice should be before you even think about stepping out onto the ice! Also remember that ice is NEVER 100% SAFE!
 
 
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Weather Outlook Saturday - November 24th, 2018
 
After a nice mild Friday, temps on Saturday will be closer to average with readings back in the 20s and 30s across much of the state. There will be a few lingering light rain/snow showers across the Arrowhead early Saturday, but much of the state will stay dry. 
 
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Temperature Outlook
 
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -7.5F below average so far this month, so warmer than average temps on Friday felt pretty nice! Unfortunately, it looks like temps will return to well below average readings as we head through the last full week of November. Note that readings will only warm into the 20s to near 30F, which will be more typical of December.
 
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Winter Storm Sails South of Minnesota

Travel plans this weekend? If your travels take you south near Kansas City, MO - Des Moines, IA - The Quad Cities, Madison, WI - Milwaukee, WI - Chicago, IL; you may have some big weather impacts as a winter storm takes shape. The heaviest snow looks to fall across the region from late Saturday to early Monday. Heavy snow amounts of 4" to 8" will certainly make roads slushy and icy at times, so plan ahead!
 
 
Winter Storm Headlines
 
As of Friday, Winter Storm Watches had been posted from Nebraska/Kansas to northern Illinois in advance of heavy snow that will fall from Saturday to early Monday across the region.
 
 
"Post-Thanksgiving Travel Will Be Impacted By Heavy Snow South"
 
"Post-Thanksgiving travel may be impacted from a significant winter storm beginning late Saturday into Sunday. This storm could bring heavy snow and gusty winds resulting in hazardous road conditions and reduce visibilities. Stay tune for forecast updates over the next few days."
 
 
Snowfall Potential
 
According to the European Model (ECMWF), areas of heavy snow look to fall across parts of the Midwest and Central US Saturday to Monday This model is suggesting nearly a foot of snow from near Kansas City, MO to Southeastern Iowa and across central and northern Illinois and Indiana!
 

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Weather Forecast: A Riddle Wrapped In An Enigma
By Paul Douglas
 
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it" wrote Patrick Young. True enough.
 
During a previous TV gig I asked if I could dial back the 7-Day to 4 days, because accuracy drops off rapidly after 72 hours. Management wouldn't hear of it. "Paul, viewers KNOW the extended outlook will be wrong. They want to see it anyway!" OK then.
 
Temperatures are, as a rule, easier to predict out a week than precipitation, but weather is inherently chaotic (consider a random eddy in a stream). Statistician Nate Silver says 3-day temperature error has dropped from 6F back in 1972 to 3F today. It's better, but in spite of high-tech advances, will never be perfect.
 
Getting home should be a (cold) breeze this weekend with skies drying out today. Sunday's snowstorm impacts southern Iowa and northern Illinois. Chicago may still get clipped by a few inches Monday.
 
Next week looks cold, and ECMWF hints at a rain/snow mix the first weekend of December.
 
At some point a mild El Nino signal may kick in. I'm still waiting.
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Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Drying out. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 39.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: NNW 10. Low: 22.

SUNDAY: Clouds linger. Dry over Minnesota. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 32.

MONDAY: Peeks of sun with a cold wind. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 18. High: 26.

TUESDAY: A little more sun, still numb. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 12. High: 24.

WEDNESDAY: Light snow or flurries develop. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 14. High: 29.

THURSDAY: Light snow. A little slush. Winds: SE7-12. Wake-up: 18. High: 30.

FRIDAY: Gray. Light rain develops. Winds: S 10-20. High: 45.
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This Day in Weather History
November 24th

1993: The Thanksgiving Day Blizzard of 1993. A slow moving storm system traveled across the Upper Midwest during the Thanksgiving holiday, causing heavy snow across most of Minnesota. Travel became extremely difficult if not impossible over west central Minnesota where over a foot of snow accumulated. A number of car accidents were reported and several community events were canceled. Snowfall in excess of six inches or greater occurred north of a line from Bricelyn (Faribault County) to the Twin Cities metro area.

1983: A snowstorm dumps almost two feet at Babbitt and about 20 inches at Duluth.

1825: A warm spell begins over Ft. Snelling. The temperature rises up to 70 degrees.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 24th

Average High: 36F (Record: 59F set in 2011)
Average Low: 22F (Record: -10F set in 1893)

Record Rainfall: 0.89" set in 1983
Record Snowfall: 11.4" set in 1983
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 24th

Sunrise: 7:22am
Sunset: 4:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 14 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1 minute & 57 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 6 hours and 9 Minutes
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Moon Phase for November 24th at Midnight
2.1 Day After Full BEAVER Moon

"At this point of the year, it's time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. It's also called the Frosty Moon. Fullness occurs at 12:39 a.m. EST (0539 GMT)."

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"In late November and early December, look west in the evening for the Summer Triangle. It’s the signature star formation of our Northern Hemisphere summer, but you can see it in northern autumn, too. The Summer Triangle showcases three brilliant stars – Vega, Deneb and Altair – in three separate constellations. The Summer Triangle will still shines in the western evening sky (at mid-northern latitudes or farther north). What’s more, the Summer Triangle will continue to shine after dark throughout December and January. Look for it tonight at early evening, high in your western sky."

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Northern Minnesota Phenology Report - November 20th, 2018
 
I've always been interested the outdoors and how the change of seasons impacts the birds, plants and animals. I did a little research and found this great weekly segment by John Latimer (Phenologist), who reports on KAXE Radio out of Grand Rapids, MN. Great stuff John - keep up the good work!!
 
 

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National High Temps - Saturday, November 24th
 
After a VERY cold Thanksgiving in the Northeast, temps will continue to warm and won't be quite as cold as it was just a couple of days ago. Warmer temps will also be in place across the Southern US, where highs could approach 80F for some in Texas.
 
 
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National Weather Outlook - Saturday, November 24th

Soggy weather will impact the eastern half of the country as we head through the next couple of days. The good news is that much of the precipitation will stay in the liquid for, however, folks in the higher elevations of the Appalachians and the Northern New England States will see a little icing. The bigger story will be the developing storm system in the Western US. Areas of heavy moisture will slide through the Inter-Mountain West on Saturday and move into the Plains through the rest of the weekend. Post-Thanksgiving travel plans will certainly be impacted as this storm moves east over the next few days.

Rain And Snowfall Potential

Here's the rain and snowfall potential through 7pm Sunday. Note areas of heavy moisture in the Western US eventually transitioning to heavy snowfall potential across the Central part of the country!


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"Hurricane Michael Brought Water Levels Over 20’ High to the Coast"
 
"As an intensifying Hurricane Michael roared ashore in Florida’s Panhandle as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 10, 2018, it pushed a massive and destructive storm surge to the coast. The peak storm surge, located along the right side of where the eyewall made landfall, hit the town of Mexico Beach, which suffered devastating storm surge damage. Michael killed 45 people and caused damage in excess of $15 billion, according to an estimate last week from insurance broker Aon. In a post-storm survey, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) found at least three high-quality still-water marks between 17 - 19’ above mean sea level (MSL) in Mexico Beach, taken inside of buildings where waves could not reach. These marks are likely a good measure of Michael’s peak storm tide (height above MSL of the storm surge plus the tide), according to Dr. Robert Young, director of Western Carolina University’s Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines."
 
 
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"Forecasting The Value Of Weather Data For Marketers"
 
"Can marketers who better understand tomorrow’s weather make more profitable decisions today? Does this insight equip marketers with a competitive edge? If so, how can this weather insight be most effectively leveraged? From decisions ranging from creative placements to contextual targeting, weather data has a role to play when it comes to optimizing marketing campaigns. The ability to anticipate weather conditions so that campaigns can be more relevant is not a new practice, but the capabilities of AI is changing how marketers prepare and respond. “We are all as consumers affected by the weather,” says Nancy Smith, CEO at Analytic Partners, an analytics firm that focuses on sales performance and marketing ROI."
 
 

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"‘Like a Terror Movie’: How Climate Change Will Cause More Simultaneous Disasters"
 
"Global warming is posing such wide-ranging risks to humanity, involving so many types of phenomena, that by the end of this century some parts of the world could face as many as six climate-related crises at the same time, researchers say. This chilling prospect is described in a paper published Monday in Nature Climate Change, a respected academic journal, that shows the effects of climate change across a broad spectrum of problems, including heat waves, wildfires, sea level rise, hurricanes, flooding, drought and shortages of clean water. Such problems are already coming in combination, said the lead author, Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii at Manoa. He noted that Florida had recently experienced extreme drought, record high temperatures and wildfires — and also Hurricane Michael, the powerful Category 4 storm that slammed into the Panhandle last month. Similarly, California is suffering through the worst wildfires the state has ever seen, as well as drought, extreme heat waves and degraded air quality that threatens the health of residents."
 
 
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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