Ongoing Flooding In Southern Minnesota

Due to the recent heavy rain across southern Minnesota, we continue to watch rivers that are out of their banks across the region. Numerous Flood Warnings are in effect, including along parts of the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers.

Here's a look at where rivers were sitting vs. flood stage as of 4 PM Saturday. The only river that was in major flood stage across southern Minnesota was the West Fork of the Des Moines River near Avoca, although numerous rivers were in major flood stage across parts of southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa.

This graphic from the NWS Twin Cities shows when the Minnesota River is expected to crest at various locations across southern Minnesota. We will be dealing with river flooding into at least next week across the region, especially with additional rain expected over the next several days.

The Mississippi River at St. Paul will continue to rise through the week, with levels approaching 13.5ft (0.5ft below minor flood stage) by next Saturday. You can check out river forecasts for other area rivers from the NWS Twin Cities here.

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We Will Not Be "Cheated". A Real Summer in 2018?
By Paul Douglas

Mother Nature has a hilarious habit of doing the unexpected. A little over 2 months ago, in mid-April, when we were butt-deep in snowdrifts, who would have predicted that May 1 to June 22 would be the warmest on record, tying 1934 in the Twin Cities? I sure didn't. Some Minnesotans were worried we wouldn't have a real summer; that we'd be cheated out of our ration of fleeting warmth. Worry no more - I expect plenty of 90s this summer; significantly hotter than average.

Friends attending Lakes Jam at BIR asked me about staying safe during T-storms. Best advice: apps on your phone, keep an eye on the sky, and head for shelter (or your vehicle) at the first rumble of thunder. If you can hear thunder, you're at risk of being struck by lightning.

A slow-moving storm keeps showers and T-storms in our forecast into Tuesday. No all-day washouts, but when it does rain it could come down pretty fast. Just what waterlogged farmers in southern Minnesota don't need right now - more rain.

We heat up into the 90s on Friday; another surge of stinking-hot-weather by the 4th of July. Yeah!

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Few showers & T-storms. High 80. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind E 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: More showers and T-storms, windy. High 79. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Still soggy, another round of T-storms. High 78. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: A nicer day, partly sunny, warmer. High 83. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, sticky again. High 88. Low 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Steamy, few T-storms possible. High 92. Low 71. Chance of precipitation 50%. SW 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Unsettled, few showers & T-storms. High 87. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
June 24th

2002: Heavy rains fall on already saturated ground, leading to flooding. 5.50 inches fall at Delano, and half of a mobile home park at Howard Lake is evacuated due to rising water.

1972: Frost develops across northeast Minnesota. Duluth has a low of 35 and Tower bottoms out at 32.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
June 24th

Average High: 82F (Record: 101F set in 1988)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 44F set in 1972)
Average Precipitation: 0.15" (Record: 2.36" set in 1911)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 24th

Sunrise: 5:27 AM
Sunset: 9:03 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes and 24 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~12 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 5:30 AM Or Later: July 1st (5:30 AM)
*Latest Sunset: June 20th-July 1st (9:03 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

We will be watching the potential of scattered showers and storms across central and southern Minnesota on Sunday, with highs in the 70s for many locations across the state. The coolest weather will be up in the Arrowhead, where highs may only be in the 50s for some locations.

Taking a closer look at those highs in Northeastern Minnesota Sunday, places like Duluth, Two Habors and Tofte will only be in the 50s. Highs even as far northwest as Ely and Hibbing are likely to only be in the 60s. Temperatures will be cooler in these areas due to a lake breeze being driven inland.

While most of the state will see highs that are below average on Sunday, it'll be the Arrowhead region that sees the largest departure from average highs - potentially up to 15 degrees below average.

Slightly cooler weather looks to move in for the second half of the weekend and the early week timeframe, as highs will only be in the 70s. We do see a return of heat and humidity in the forecast, however, as we head toward next weekend and the first few days of July.

While rain will be more scattered across southern Minnesota Sunday, a better chance of rain starts to move in Monday and Tuesday across the region. Through 7 PM Monday, some areas of southwestern Minnesota could receive another 1-1.5" of rain.

Some of the rain Monday could cause additional flooding across parts of southern Minnesota. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rain that could lead to flash flooding in place.

Through the middle of the week, the Twin Cities could see between about a half an inch to an inch and a half of rain. We'll see drier weather Wednesday and Thursday before more rain chances move in for the end of the week and next weekend.

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National Weather Forecast

Numerous areas of showers and storms will be possible from the Plains into the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The area we are keeping a close eye on is across parts of the Central Plains, where a new system will be pushing out the the Rockies that will spark potentially strong to severe storms. Showers and storms will also be possible across parts of Florida on Sunday as well.

The heaviest rain through Thursday morning will be across parts of the Central Plains (particularly Sunday and Monday) as well as across southern and central Florida. Across these areas, 2-3"+ of rain could fall.

While we are not watching any areas in the Atlantic for potential development at the moment, there are three different areas in the Eastern Pacific that the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. The first has an 80% chance of formation in the next two days (the red area on the map above). If this system does form into a tropical depression, it will have to do so quickly, as it will move into cooler waters by early in the week. The second (the orange shaded area) has a 40% chance of formation over the next five days. If it does form, it will have to do so before a third tropical wave approaches from the east (the area in yellow, which has a 20% chance of development in the next five days).

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Moderate Severe Weather Risk Sunday Across Portions Of Kansas And Oklahoma - Praedictix Briefing: Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

  • A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in effect across parts of southern Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma, and far northern Texas Sunday.
  • Damaging wind gusts - some of which could be significant - will be the greatest threat, but very large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible as well with storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Severe Threat Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather across parts of southern Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma and far northern Texas Sunday. This Moderate Risk area includes the cities of Hutchinson, Dodge City, Liberal, and Great Bend (KS), as well as Woodward, OK. As storms develop during the afternoon and evening, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats as well as a few tornadoes, especially if storms remain discrete. Once storms merge into lines, the main threat will become damaging wind gusts, some of which could be significant. It is due to the damaging wind threat that a Moderate Risk of severe weather has been issued.

Forecast. As we go through Sunday morning, at least one line of storms is expected to develop across Nebraska and move to the southeast. More storms will develop in western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours initially capable of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. These storms are expected to quickly merge into at least one line - if not several - that will continue into the overnight hours, capable of significant wind gusts.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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Skin Cancer High For Americans – Australia and New Zealand Worst Offenders

More from Praedictix: "Alright, it’s wake up call time. America, we need to have a talk. We’re gonna sit down and talk about skin cancer. And it’s needed. We can easily take steps that may help prevent it but many don’t. You hear this from us weather people all the time: “don’t forget your sunscreen… limit your exposure to the sun… wear your sunglasses… did I mention to apply that sunscreen!?” – your friendly neighborhood weatherman.  We’re all guilty of ignoring these warnings at one time or another (or all the time). So here’s a rather jarring number that may get your attention: One in five Americans will develop skin cancer by the age of 70.  Skin cancer is by far the most common of all cancers. Melanoma accounts for only ~1% of skin cancers (but most deadly). About 91,270 new melanomas will be diagnosed (about 55,150 in men and 36,120 in women) in 2018, according to the American Cancer Society. About 9,320 people are expected to die of melanoma (about 5,990 men and 3,330 women) in 2018."

The EPA Just Killed Three Expert Advisory Committees

More from Earther: "The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to become a shell of its former self under Scott Pruitt. The latest salvo: the agency’s rejiggered science advisory board stocked with industry types just killed three committees it has traditionally relied on.  The move is another way in which Pruitt’s EPA is becoming hermetically sealed off from outside, impartial advice. In its place, industry and partisan political voices are taking greater prominence in the debates over policies that affect Americans’ health. The decision to shut down the Ecological Processes and Effects Committee, the Environmental Engineering Committee, and the Environmental Economics Advisory Committee was made at a late May meeting of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board, but researchers on the committees were only notified on Thursday. In an email reviewed by Earther, Tom Brennan, the acting director of the Science Advisory Board office told researchers that, “On the recommendation of the SAB Staff Office, the SAB, unanimously agreed, at our 5/31/18 administrative meeting, to retire three of our current seven standing committees.”"

Burning Wood as Renewable Energy Threatens Europe’s Climate Goals

More from InsideClimate News: "The European Union declared this week that it could make deeper greenhouse gas cuts than it has already pledged under the Paris climate agreement. But its scientific advisors are warning that the EU's new renewable energy policy fails to fully account for the climate impacts of burning wood for fuel.  By counting forest biomass, such as wood pellets used in power plants, as carbon-neutral, the new rules could make it impossible for Europe to achieve its climate goals, the European Academy of Sciences Advisory Council (EASAC) wrote in a strongly worded statement.   The council said the renewable energy policy's treatment of biomass is "simplistic and misleading" and could actually add to Europe's greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 to 30 years."

Amid national debate over grid security, NERC says reliability is improving

More from Utility Drive: "NERC's assessment is good news for the power grid, but perhaps an awkward conclusion for federal officials who want to prop up struggling coal and nuclear plants. The White House has been considering a range of ways it could keep plants, particularly fossil fuel plants, from closing — but that push has been predicated on the idea that plant closures mean less reliability, which could be a threat to national security.  NERC's assessment, that the North American grid continues to become more reliable, would seem to reject that argument.   The North American bulk power system was hit by two Category 5 storms last year: hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The affected areas recovered "in record time," which NERC said demonstrates improved resilience of the North American bulk power system."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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