90s In August

We are slowly reaching the end of summer here in the Twin Cities with only four weeks until Labor Day. Our temperatures reflect that, as we start to see our averages decrease during August. This month we typically see 2.6 days (using the 1981-2010 averages) of 90-degree heat. Looking at the entire MSP record, there is a higher chance those 90-degree days occur towards the beginning of the month vs. closer to the State Fair. The day in August that has seen the most 90-degree days in Twin Cities history is August 8th, where 32 out of the 149 years of records has had a 90F+ high (the record for the date is 96F in 2010). The last year that we saw a high of 90F+ between August 20th-31st was back in 2013.

This doesn't mean we don't see 90s in September, of course. In fact, the last 90F degree day each of the past two years has occurred in September (9/16 in 2018, and 9/24 in 2017).

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Severe Threat Monday

A cold front diving south across the state Monday will allow for some showers and storms to development during the afternoon and evening hours across southern Minnesota. A few of those storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place across portions of southeastern and south-central Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk stretching northward to the southern Twin Cities.

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Watching Rain Chances This Week - Cooler Late Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

We are beginning the slow summer downswing here in the Twin Cities, even though we are still four weeks away from Labor Day and many kids having to go back to school. We can see it in our temperatures in two different ways. First, our average high slowly decreases from 83F August 1st to 78F by the 31st. Also, while we average three 90-degree days during August, we have a higher probability of seeing those 90-degree days occur earlier in the month versus during the State Fair. We also see it in the amount of daylight, as we lose an hour and 19 minutes of sunlight between now and Labor Day. Enjoy cabin and lake time while you can!

A cold front will swing through southern Minnesota today, bringing some thunderstorms along with it - a few of which could be on the strong side this afternoon mainly south of the Twin Cities. The front won’t impact temperatures much Tuesday, but it will bring the humidity levels down. Another front Wednesday produces more thunderstorm chances as well as slightly cooler air to end the week.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: A few PM thunderstorms. Wake up 70. High 83. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Mainly sunny, some afternoon clouds. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Some mid/late day thunderstorms. Wake up 66. High 82. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny and nice! Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: A few more clouds. Still pleasant. Wake up 59. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 3-8 mph.
SATURDAY: Slightly more humid. Mostly sunny. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 3-8 mph.
SUNDAY: A few thunderstorms, especially late. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 3-8 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
August 5th

1904: A Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melts her hairpins and the steel in her corset, but does not kill her.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 5th

Average High: 82F (Record: 100F set in 1947)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1994)
Average Precipitation: 0.15" (Record: 1.88" set in 1898)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 5th

Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 8:34 PM

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 31 minutes and 34 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 30 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 14.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 6th (14 hours, 29 minutes, and 2 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 6:30 AM: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM: August 8th (8:30 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

A cold front will be working across the state Monday, bringing the chance of showers and storms along with it, especially across central and southern Minnesota. One round of storms is possible during the morning across portions of northern and central Minnesota, with a redeveloping round in the afternoon across central and southern Minnesota. Highs will be in the 80s across most of the state, hanging out in the 70s though in far northern Minnesota.

Highs will mainly be around average across most of the state on Monday, with the greatest departure from averages across northern Minnesota, where areas from Grand Forks to Grand Marais will be 3-5 degrees above average. The average high for August 5th in the Twin Cities is 82F.

As we go through the week, highs will be in the 80s through the middle of the week, cooling a little toward the second half of the week as a cold front moves through Wednesday.

While temperatures do cool down toward the end of the week, they look to warm back up into the 80s as we head into early next week. No 90s are in the extended outlook, however.

We'll watch a few chances for rain this week. The first comes Monday, with more chances occurring Wednesday and next Sunday. Models indicate the potential of up to an inch of so of rain through next weekend.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front moving through the upper Midwest will spark off storms at times through the day. Some showers and storms will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the northern Gulf Coast, with a round of afternoon storms possible across the Rockies. The heat will be on in the western United States, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for Seattle and Portland, and reaching into the low 110s in Phoenix.

Through Tuesday evening, some of the heaviest rain will fall across portions of the Southeastern United States, with the potential of over 2" of rain in portions of southern Florida.

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Tracking Flossie In The Pacific

Flossie continued to move closer to Hawaii as we went through the weekend. While it is weakening, it could bring some tropical storm impacts Monday across the state before the system dissipates late Monday or early Tuesday just north of the state.

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High Water Levels Weighing On Lake Superior Property Owners

More from WPR: "O’Connor said an October storm two years ago completely transformed the shoreline. Water washed up on the bank, undercutting it. At one time, he and his wife could walk all up and down the shore. Now, there’s little or no beach and trees angle toward the water. O’Connor said they cut some down about two months ago to keep them from tearing away the hillside. ... If erosion continues to creep closer, O’Connor said they may have to move his grandfather’s cabin back several hundred feet from the shore. There’s not much else he can do. He’s considered spending tens of thousands of dollars on rip rap to reinforce the shoreline."

Water Uncertainty Frustrates Victims Of California's Worst Wildfire

More from NPR: "Tammy Waller thought she was one of the lucky ones after her home in Magalia survived California's most destructive wildfire ever, but her community remains a ghostly skeleton of its former self. Hazmat crews are still clearing properties, and giant dump trucks haul away toxic debris. Signs on the water fountains in the town hall say, "Don't drink." Waller remembers the day she came back home after the Camp Fire. "When I first walked in, I went to my kitchen sink and turned on the water, and it was just literally black," Waller says. After the fire, scientists detected dangerous levels of cancer-causing benzenes from burned plastics in some water lines. Recent tests show the problem has not gone away. Chronic exposure to benzenes can heighten the risk of blood cancers such as leukemia."

Artificial snow could save world’s coasts

More from Climate News Network: "German scientists have proposed a startling new way of slowing sea level rise and saving New York, Shanghai, Amsterdam and Miami from 3.3 metres of ocean flooding − by using artificial snow. They suggest the rising seas could be halted by turning West Antarctica, one of the last undisturbed places on Earth, into an industrial snow complex, complete with a sophisticated distribution system. An estimated 12,000 high-performance wind turbines could be used to generate the 145 Gigawatts of power (one Gigawatt supplies the energy for about 750,000 US homes) needed to lift Antarctic ocean water to heights of, on average, 640 metres, heat it, desalinate it and then spray it over 52,000 square kilometres of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the form of artificial snow, at the rate of several hundred billion tonnes a year, for decades."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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