Past Five Day Rainfall

It's been fairly wet the past several days in the Twin Cities if you haven't noticed. The only dry day in the past five was back on Tuesday, meanwhile, we saw over an inch of rain both Wednesday and Thursday. That brought the five-day rain total to 2.72" in the Twin Cities.

Up in St. Cloud, they picked up almost 2" of rain on Thursday, and with an inch on Monday as well as additional rain Sunday and Wednesday that brought their five-day rain total to 3.64".

However, down in Rochester, they have picked up 4.46" of rain over the past five days, with 2.70" of that occurring Thursday. On Thursday, there were also reports of water on I-90 in Austin.


Rain So Far In September

After the rain this week, all climate sites within the state of Minnesota are running above average so far in September. Rochester is +4.81" above average with 6.27" of rain so far, and if the month ended now it would be the 14th wettest September on record. In St. Cloud, it would be the 23rd wettest September on record with no additional rainfall. We certainly aren't as high on the list here in the Twin Cities - the 3.13" of rain so far in September would only rank as the 59th wettest out of 149 years of data.


Still The Second Wettest Start To 2019 On Record

Year-to-date in the Twin Cities we have picked up 34.22" of rain, which still puts us in second place for the wettest start to the year on record (through Thursday). It falls just short of the wettest January 1st - September 12th on record back in 1892 by 0.86".

Meanwhile, if no additional rain fell past Thursday in the Twin Cities for the rest of the year (110 days), it would already be the 25th wettest year on record, and only 6.10" behind the wettest on record (2016 with 40.32" of precipitation).

Many areas from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities and southward across southern Minnesota have received over 30" of rain so far in 2019, with these areas running a good 10-20" above average. If no additional rain fell in Rochester, it would be the fourth overall wettest year on record. While we have positive departures across northern Minnesota as well, they are by a lot less. Duluth is barely above average, with Brainerd and International Falls approximately 3-4" on the positive side. 


Severe Threat Saturday

As a system moves through the upper Midwest Saturday into Saturday Night, a few strong storms could pop across portions of central and southern Minnesota southward into Iowa. These storms would mainly be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Due to the threat, a Marginal Risk of severe storms is in place which includes the Twin Cities.


Weather-Whining as a Coping Skill
By Paul Douglas

There are times I don't know whether to laugh or weep. I hear it a lot, especially with this year's endless parade of sloppy storms. "Paul, can't you DO something about the weather?"

In fact, yes. I can ignore it. I can pick an activity that isn't weather-dependent. I can accept it. Better yet, complain about it! Recent studies suggest swearing out loud helps to alleviate the sensation of pain. Maybe griping about the weather out loud makes it easier to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous weather swings.

Yesterday's showery swirl is gone, but nagging instability may fire off a stray shower or T-storm by late afternoon. Dry weather prevails Sunday into Tuesday with a welcome warming trend. ECMWF and NOAA models both hint at 4, possibly 5 days in a row of 80s. Above average temperatures the next 10 days? Imagine that.

September is prime time for foggy mornings and hurricanes. "Humberto" may brush Florida, then veer out to sea, sparing the United States. It's still prime time hurricane season.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Some sun, PM T-shower. Wake up 51. High 75. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: More sunshine, warmer and drier. Wake up 61. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and sticky. Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: July in September. Hazy sun. Wake up 67. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Muggy with a few T-storms. Wake up 69. High 83. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Wake up 66. High 80. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Intervals of lukewarm sunshine. Wake up 62. High 76. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
September 14th

2099: The next total solar eclipse will take place over Minnesota. It will be visible in the Twin Cites, depending on the weather.

1964: The earliest official measurable snowfall occurs in Minnesota with 0.3 inches at International Falls.

1852: Early frost hits Ft. Snelling and ends the growing season.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
September 14th

Average High: 73F (Record: 98F set in 1939)
Average Low: 53F (Record: 33F set in 1996)
Average Precipitation: 0.10" (Record: 1.60" set in 1994)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 14th

Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 35 minutes and 46 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~3 minute and 5 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 12.5 Hours Of Daylight? September 16th (12 hours, 29 minutes, and 35 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM: September 23rd (7:01 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 7:00 PM: September 28th (6:59 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

The first thing you will notice about Saturday is the much warmer highs! They will climb into the mid-70s here in the Twin Cities, but reach into the low 80s across portions of southwestern Minnesota. To the north, they be in the 60s, and potentially cooler than that along the North Shore. You do see storm icons in the forecast - those are mainly for late in the day into the overnight hours. Most of the day will feature mainly sunny skies.

Highs on Saturday will be near to above average across most of the state - the exceptions being along the North Shore and in far northern Minnesota. The average high for September 14th in the Twin Cities is 73F.

We'll see even warmer temperatures as we head toward the second half of the weekend into next week in the Twin Cities, with highs climbing into the 80s - at times 10-15F degrees above average.

As we head into the second half of next week we will see a slight dip in highs - back into the mid-to-upper 70s - before even cooler weather looks possible into the last full week of the month. I don't think it will be as cool as some of the models are showing, but highs back in the 60s to low 70s certainly are possible.

We'll watch that rain and potential strong storm chance move across the region late Saturday into Saturday night, then we'll see a drier period of weather until the middle of next week.


National Weather Forecast

On Saturday we will be watching Tropical Depression Nine/Tropical Storm Humberto moving northwest through the Bahamas close to the Florida coast, potentially making a close approach by Sunday across the region. This will bring gusty winds and heavy rain along with it. We will also be watching a cold front moving toward the East Coast as well as a new system pushing into the upper Midwest, bringing the threat of storms with both systems. A cold front moving toward the Pacific Northwest will spark showers, and across portions of Arizona and New Mexico some storms will be possible. Highs will be below average across the Pacific Northwest and northern New England, with near-to-above-average highs expected in the rest of the lower 48.

The heaviest rain expected through 7 PM Sunday will be across portions of Florida with Tropical Depression Nine/Tropical Storm Humberto we are watching in the Bahamas. That could bring rainfall amounts of 2-4" across eastern portions of the state.


Tropical Depression Nine

Tropical Depression Nine has formed near the Bahamas and is expected to become a tropical storm (Humberto) Saturday. It will continue to strengthen through the weekend and into next week, becoming a hurricane off the Southeast coast by Monday afternoon. Right now it appears the greatest impacts from this system will remain off the Southeast coast, but some gusty winds and heavy rain might be possible at times, especially across the northern Bahamas.


What Happens When Corn, Soybeans Get Hit With a Freeze?

More from DTN: "With a record-late corn and soybean crop creeping toward maturity this fall, the timing and severity of each region's first freeze is top of mind for many farmers. While the DTN fall weather forecast does not show a high risk for an early freeze in the central U.S., now is a good time to brush up on the agronomics behind the age-old threat of fall cold snaps. We visited with University of Minnesota Extension soybean agronomist Seth Naeve and Purdue University Extension corn agronomist Bob Nielsen for more details on how corn and soybeans respond to cold temperatures, from a light frost to a deep freeze."

EPA Makes Rollback Of Clean Water Rules Official, Repealing 2015 Protections

More from NPR: "The Trump administration is changing the definition of what qualifies as "waters of the United States," tossing out an Obama-era regulation that had enhanced protections for wetlands and smaller waterways. Thursday's rollback is the first step in a process that will allow the Trump administration to create its own definition of which waters deserve federal protection. A new rule is expected to be finalized this winter. The repeal ends an "egregious power grab," Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler says. He adds that the 2015 rule had provoked 31 states to file complaints and petitions for legal review."

Fed Paper Suggests Climate Change Will Affect Retail Worker Pay

More from Bloomberg: "Climate change may lead to large swings in the incomes of U.S. retail workers, according to a new study published by the Federal Reserve. In the analysis published this month, Fed economist Brigitte Roth Tran suggested that income inequality could increase as retail employees whose pay or hours are tied to sales find their work affected by more volatile weather patterns. Such workers account for about 10% of U.S. employment. Roth Tran found that consumers already shift their shopping between outside and indoor stockists depending on the weather."

Moderate forest damage raises local temperature

More from Climate News Network: "Destruction of the Amazon rainforest is bad news for the planet. It isn’t good news for the people, plants and animals of the region either. And even moderate forest damage raises local temperatures faster than it can affect the average global temperature. British researchers used comprehensive and systematic sets of satellite data to test the local temperatures of both surviving tropical rainforest in the Amazon basin, and of the surfaces cleared of canopy by fire, axe, drought and grazing. They report that even if two-thirds of the tree cover survived, the local ground temperature increased. The more canopy that was lost, the more pronounced the effect."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Saturday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Drying Out - July Flashback Next Week - Potential Grows for "Humberto"

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Feeling More Like July Vs. September This Week