Allergy sufferers are still dealing with bouts of high pollen and spring misery. According to Pollen.com, pollen levels have been MEDIUM to MEDIUM-HIGH for many days now and will continue to remain in that range over the next several days. Keep the Benedryl handy... ACHOO!!
Extended Temperature Forecast
The extended forecast through June 18th & 19h shows mild temperatures over the next coulple of weeks. The week ahead will feature highs generally in the 80s, which will be above average. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Note that the GFS forecast keeps temps a little warmer this week with highs in the mid to upper 80s, while the ECMWF keeps us a little cooler with highs in the 70s through the 2nd half of the week.
2018 Lightning Fatalities
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 4 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, and now 1 in Tennesee. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 449 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 2nd), which is less than what we had at this time over the last couple of years. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Average Tornadoes in June By State
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.
1.) Much above-normal temperatures across portions of the Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Mon-Fri, Jun 4-8.
2.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southeast.
3.) Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies.
4.) Flooding possible across portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic.
Locally heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Mon-Tue, Jun 4-5.
5.) High winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Mon-Tue, Jun 4-5.
6.) Moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for portions of the Great Plains, the Central Rockies, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Tue, Jun 9-12.
7.) Moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for portions of California and the Southwest, Sat-Sun, Jun 9-10.
8.) Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for the western two-thirds of the lower 48 states with the exception of portions of the West Coast, Sat-Fri, Jun 9-15.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for most areas adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, Tue-Fri, Jun 12-15.
Severe Drought across parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, Oregon, and Missouri.
Temperature Anomaly on Sunday
The temperature anomaly across North America from Sunday, showed above average temperatures across much of the nation, while cooler than average temps were in place across the far northern reaches of the Upper Midwest and across much of the eastern half of Canada.
The 850mb temperature anomaly from Monday to Thursday shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the western half of the country as we head into the 1st full week of June. However, parts of Northeast little be cooler than average.
Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly quiet across much of the nation. However a stalled front across the Gulf Coast will keep things a little active there and wet weather will continue across the Northeast as a storm system lingers there. Much of the Central US will remain quiet as a bubble of high pressure slowly meanders through.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the northern tier of the nation and especially from the Midwet to the Northeast with some 1" to 2"+ tallies possible. Meanwhile, the Southwest looks to remain dry still with the exception of those east of the Four Corners.
US Drought Outlook
Here is the national drought map from Thursday, May 29th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully we'll be able to pick up some much needed precipitation in these areas as we head through the rest of spring! However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!
Warmer Temps And Bouts of Storm Return This Week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Last week my kids finished up kindergarten and 3rd grade... how is that even possible? I tell them there is only one rule that I have in the house and that is; No growing up! Stop this very instant! Ugh, I don't think they are obeying very well. I predicted that with mixed emotions, many teachers will be able to exhale deeply as school wraps up over the coming days. Happy Summer!
Yes, it's June already and according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, Minnesota averages 18 tornadoes, more than any other month in the year. Last year there were only 10 reports, but in 2010, an astounding 101 tornadoes ripped up the state. On June 17th, 2010, 3 Minnesotans lost their lives as a rare tornadic outbreak occurred in the Upper Midwest. Nearly 30 tornadoes touched down in Minnesota that day, a single-day record. Unreal!
Thankfully, no tornadoes will drop from the sky today. Bright sun and summer-like temps will make for a glorious Monday. A few rumbles develop Monday night, but a better chance of storms arrives midweek. Gardens will be happy!
MONDAY: Warm sun. Overnight rumbe possible. Winds: W 5-10. High: 82.
MONDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of a T-storm. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 60.
TUESDAY: Morning puddle? Afternoon sunshine. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 83.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered showers and storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High: 85.
THURSDAY: Drier. More PM sunshine. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High: 82.
FRIDAY: Dry day. Overnight storms arrive. Winds: ESE 5-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.
SATURDAY: Unsettled. Spotty T-Storms. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.
SUNDAY: Breezy. Drier day of the weekend. Winds: ESE 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.
This Day in Weather History
1935: The latest official measurable snowfall in Minnesota falls at Mizpah on this date with 1.5 inches.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 75F (Record: 96F set in 1968)
Average Low: 55F (Record: 38F set in 1938)
Record Rainfall: 1.92" set in 1880
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 27 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minutes & 13 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 40 Minutes
Moon Phase for June at Midnight
1.5 Days Before Last Quarter
Temp Outlook For Monday
Monday will be a warmer day across the region with highs warming into the 70s & 80s across much of Minnesota. However, folks in the Arrowhead will be stuck in the 60s and perhaps even the 50s near Lake Superior.
According to NOAA's CPC, June 11th - 17th will be warmer than average across much of the nation. It looks like we could be dealing with quite a warm middle part of the month. Stay tuned.
"Scientists race to reveal how surging wildfire smoke is affecting climate and health"
"Emily Fischer is likely one of the few people whose summer plans were buoyed by a recent forecast that much of the western United States faces another worse-than-normal wildfire season. Unusually warm weather and drought, together with plenty of dry grass and brush, are expected to create prime conditions for blazes this summer, federal officials announced on 10 May. The forecast has local officials bracing for the worst. But it represents an opportunity for Fischer, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins who is preparing to spend the summer flying through plumes of wildfire smoke aboard a C-130 cargo plane jammed full of scientific equipment. The flights are the highlight of an unprecedented effort, costing more than $30 million, that involves aircraft, satellites, instrumented vans, and even researchers traveling on foot. Over the next 2 years, two coordinated campaigns—one funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the other by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—aim to better understand the chemistry and physics of wildfire smoke, as well as how it affects climate, air pollution, and human health."
"Clouds are disappearing in Southern California, and we're not totally sure why"
"Clouds above Los Angeles are vanishing. A new study recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests that summer clouds over Southern California have dwindled as both increasing temperatures and heat-radiated from urban sprawl have driven clouds away. “Cloud cover is plummeting in southern coastal California,” Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University and lead author of the research, said in a statement. "Clouds that used to burn off by noon or 1 o’clock are now gone by 10 [a.m.] or 11 [a.m.], if they form at all," Williams said. The clouds in question are called stratus clouds, which hover around 1,000 to 3,000 feet above the ground, and are often referred to as the marine layer by coastal dwellers. During summer, the researchers found that this type of cloud cover has decreased by between 25 to 50 percent over the last five decades."
"Here's How the International Space Station Aids Hurricane Hunters"
"June 1 is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and ISS instruments help scientists on Earth track the potentially deadly storms. Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, are the most destructive natural forces on Earth—causing an estimated 10,000 deaths and $26 billion in property damage worldwide each year. In recent decades, scientists have become much better at predicting where these storms might hit and how powerful they will be. However, as seen with Hurricane Katrina and many others, initial predictions can be off, leading to terrible consequences for the affected communities. Improved measurements and predictions of tropical cyclone intensity and trajectory would help communities better prepare for such storms. Providing such measurements is the aim of an ISS National Lab project by Visidyne, Inc. called Cyclone Intensity Measurements from the ISS (CyMISS)."
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