Dry Weather Recently Across Most Of Minnesota

I got asked by two different relatives Saturday, "Well, when is it going to rain again?" Yes, even with the heavy snowstorm the Twin Cities saw in April, most of the state is below average in the precipitation department since the beginning of meteorological spring (March 1st). The exception to that is far southern Minnesota where some areas are running 1-3" above average, with a chunk of that due to rain that has fallen this month.

 
The Twin Cities has picked up just over an inch of rain so far in May, but as you head north a couple hours toward St. Cloud and Brainerd the rainfall amounts so far this month quickly decrease to less than a quarter inch. The heavy rain so far has set up across southern Minnesota, where Rochester has picked up over 4" of rain so far. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)
 

Most of the state is running a rainfall deficit so far this month, topping over an inch in spots. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

As of this weeks Drought Monitor, over 39% of the state - mainly in central and northern portions - are now classified as Abnormally Dry. From the Drought Montior writeup about the expansion of the Abnormally Dry area: "In contrast, areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) were introduced to portions of Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri where rainfall has been below normal during the past 60 days – with areas of below normal surface and root zone soil moisture appearing on the latest satellite-based NASA GRACE-based drought products (http://nasagrace.unl.edu)." (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

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Good News: Minnesotans Can Breathe Easy Most Days
By Paul Douglas

Quality of life. It's an ongoing mantra here in Minnesota. Growing up out east I never once heard the expression. With few exceptions, our water is safe. We can eat fish out of our lakes. With no heavy industry upwind, our air is generally clean, in spite of ozone & metro smog events.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) air pollution results in an estimated 7 million premature deaths every year, worldwide. Bad air can aggravate existing conditions; making a bad situation worse. For people with heart disease, pneumonia, stroke, COPD and lung cancer, dirty air spells trouble. Turns out a revolving door of Canadian cool fronts have some benefits.

A stray T-shower may pop up later today, but dry weather prevails Tuesday into Thursday with daytime highs near 80F. Just right.

The approach of a cooler front sparks showers and T-storms late Thursday into Saturday; hopefully much of the state will get a good long drink - it's still too dry out there.

NOAA's GFS model (consistently) prints out a hurricane for the southeast USA by late May. I'm not buying it just yet.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: AM sun, PM shower? High 78. Low 55. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, should stay dry. High 77. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sun, feels like June. High 82. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Some sticky sun, PM T-storm possible. High 81. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Unsettled with mainly PM T-storms. High 77. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Heavier showers and T-storms. High 68. Low 51. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: The nicer day. Sunny & pleasant. High 69. Low 48. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 14th

2013: Minneapolis sets a record high temperature of 98 degrees, breaking the previous record of 95 set in 1932.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 14th

Average High: 69F (Record: 98F set in 2013)
Average Low: 48F (Record: 32F set in 1907)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 1.28" set in 1916)
Average Snow: 0.0" (Record: Trace set in 1927)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 14th

Sunrise: 5:45 AM
Sunset: 8:34 PM

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 49 minutes and 5 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 19 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 5:30 AM Or Earlier: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*Next Sunset Of 9:00 PM Or Later: June 12th (9:00 PM)
*When Do We Hit 15 Hours Of Daylight? May 19th (Daylight Length: 15:00:05)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

A few showers or storms will be possible Monday afternoon across southern Minnesota, otherwise a mix of clouds and sun is expected, with sunnier skies possible the further north you go. Highs across a majority of the state will be in the 70s and 80s. Only a few spots in northern Minnesota - particularly further up the North Shore and around Lake of the Woods, may be stuck in the 60s for highs. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

Highs on Monday are expected to be 5-15 degrees above average for mid-May. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

In the Twin Cities, temperatures will start off in the 50s, climbing to a high around 80 by the late afternoon hours. It'll be during the late afternoon hours that we'll have the best chances of seeing any rain. Winds will be fairly light out of the west at 2-6 mph.

Temperatures through the first half of the week will remain quite warm, with highs reaching the low 80s. A cold front will move through the state though the second half of the week, slowly knocking temperatures back a bit. By next weekend, highs will once again only be in the 60s.

The best chance of any rain across the state over the next couple days will be in southern Minnesota, as a front will be drapped across parts of Iowa. Due to this, a few showers (or even rumbles of thunder) may make it far enough north to impact areas like Rochester Sunday Night though Monday Night. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

In the Twin Cities, the best chance of any rain won't arrive until the end of the week, when a few tenths of an inch could fall. We'll have to see how things evolve as we go though the week. A few thunderstorms will be even be possible Friday.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a stationary front from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic will be the boundary for showers and storms thoughout the day, with some storms possible along/ahead of a dry line stretching across parts of western Texas into the panhandle of Oklahoma. A trough passing through parts of the Intermountain West will allow for some rain and higher elevation snow. Meanwhile, a low pressure center off the Florida Gulf Coast will bring showers and storms to parts of the Southeast, particularly across the Sunshine State. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

Two dozen record highs will be possible Monday from the Ohio Valley into the southern United States, including areas like St. Louis, Little Rock, New Orleans, Nashville and Indianapolis, as highs climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

The potential of record highs will continue into Tuesday from New Jersey to the Houston area.

There will be two areas of heavy rain over the next several days. The heaviest will be over parts of Florida due to a large upper level low that slowly moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing daily shower and storm chances. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary front will continue to hang out through at least the first parts of the week from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, slowly sinking south from the Indianapolis area at the begining of the week to northern Kentucky by Wednesday. As systems continue to move along this front, storm chances will continue.

Through Tuesday evening alone, places like Orlando, Miami and Key West could receive more than two inches of rain. (Graphic: Praedictix & AerisWeather)

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A Look At Lakewood’s (CO) Bottom Line, One Year After A Hail Storm Pounded The City

More from 9News in Denver: “One year after the costliest hail storm in Colorado history, the city of Lakewood is still feeling the pinch.  The Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association updated its estimate of the May 8, 2017 storm from $1.4 billion in losses to $2.3 billion.  Colorado Mills Mall shut its doors after the building was badly damaged by the hail and water from the storm. It did not open again until just before Black Friday.

Monster 78-Foot Wave Recorded in the Southern Ocean

More from Gizmodo: "At 78 feet tall, and churned by a fierce storm, it’s the largest wave ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, New Zealand scientists report.  “This is a very exciting event and to our knowledge it is largest wave ever recorded in the southern hemisphere,” said Tom Durrant, a senior oceanographer with MetOcean Solutions, in a statement. “So, this is a very important storm to capture, and it will add greatly to our understanding of the wave physics under extreme conditions in the Southern Ocean.”  The wave was recorded on the night of May 9 by a MetOcean buoy, which is currently floating in the Southern Ocean near Campbell Island about 430 miles (692 km) south of New Zealand. The wave reached a height of 78 feet (23.8 meters) as a storm rolled through the region. The previous record, also recorded by MetOcean Solutions, was a 63.6-foot (19.4 meter) wave that rolled through the same patch of ocean last year. "

Cyprus entering third year of drought

More from the Cyprus Mail: "Cyprus is in its third year of drought with water in dams at the lowest levels since 2008, Agriculture Minister Costas Kadis said on Thursday.  In a statement, he said that 10 years ago, the island had to bring in water via tanks from abroad, and now demand for water far exceeds the supply available.  The ministry must now decide how to distribute water, particularly with farmers, Kadis said."

Will a Warming Planet Spell the Silence of the Eiders?

More from National Geographic: "Every spring, king and common eiders fly from their wintering areas in Russia and western Alaska to breeding grounds in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada in one of the last great migrations left in North America. In just five weeks, hundreds of thousands of eiders will pass by our vantage point near Point Barrow, where the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas meet, the bulk of the birds passing in just a single day or two.  This migration has been the subject of counts every decade since the 1950s, allowing scientists to evaluate the state of the population. Early counts recorded numbers as high as 113,000 eiders passing in just 30 minutes. By the early 2000s, however, biologists raised concern when counts declined by more than 50 percent from those conducted in the 1970s."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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