Heat Advisories For The Twin Cities Through Monday

As we head into Monday, a Heat Advisory remains in place for the Twin Cities metro as highs around 90F and dew points in the 70s will create heat index values in the mid-to-upper 90s. Between Sunday and Monday the Twin Cities could see a good 15-18 hours with heat index values above 90F.


Highs & Peak Heat Index Values Sunday


Severe Storm Threat Monday

There will once again be the chance of some strong storms across the state Monday, with a Slight Risk of severe weather in place across portions of central and northern Minnesota. The rest of the state (except far northwestern Minnesota) is covered by a Marginal Risk. The potential will exist for large hail and damaging winds.

Sticky Dew Points Continue This Week

Anyone enjoying the extra moisture in the air... cause I'm not. Dew point values throughout much of the week will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will make it feel sticky and even warmer out than what it is. It looks like we'll see dew points finally start to decrease some (into the mid-60s) during the day Friday and into next weekend.

Severe Storm in the Woods? Have a Plan
By Paul Douglas

My Eagle Scout project was preparing hospitals and other public facilities in my hometown for a tornado. Some projects never end. I was reminded of this Sunday, when a tornadic storm tracked close to Many Point Scout Camp, near Elbow Lake.

It's an ongoing concern: what do you do if a severe storm is approaching, and all you have is a tent to protect you, surrounded by swaying trees?

There are no easy answers. Bathroom facilities over some protection. So does a vehicle. Smartphone apps and NOAA Weather Radio increases the odds that counselors get word in time to lead campers to a safer spot, but the storm threat increases when you're in the woods. Options are limited.

Random storms mushroom over Minnesota through the end of this week in response to daytime highs near 90F, high dew points and a stubborn frontal boundary nearby.

We got off to a cool spring, but meteorological summer (since June 1) is 1.2F warmer than average at MSP. Gazing at the maps it appears we're making up for lost time.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Muggy, few heavy T-storms. Wake up 74. High 89. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Stalled fronts, swarms of storms. Wake up 73. High 90. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Wet bias lingers, more T-storms. Wake up 72. High 87. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY: More sunshine, heating up again. Wake up 73. High 92. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine, hot & bothered. Wake up 74. High 92. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Hot streak continues, a bit less humid. Wake up 72. High 90. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Few heavy T-storms, cooling off. Wake up 70. High 84. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.


This Day in Weather History
July 15th

1980: Straight-line winds of nearly 100 mph cause enormous damage, mainly in Dakota County. 43 million dollars in damage is reported and 100 thousand people lose power.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 15th

Average High: 84F (Record: 102F set in 1988)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 49F set in 1912)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.87" set in 1907)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 15th

Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:56 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 16 minutes and 14 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~1 minute and 36 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight? July 24th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 33 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 6 AM: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM: August 8th (8:30 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

On Monday, we will once again be watching the chance of some showers and storms across the state as a cold front approaches. That front will eventually stall out across the state into the middle of the week. As mentioned above, a few of the storms Monday could be strong to severe. Highs will be in the 90s across most of central and southern Minnesota and in the 80s up north. The cool spot will be Grand Marais, with highs only in the 70s by the lake.

Highs will be up to 10F degrees above average across the state Monday. The average high in the Twin Cities for July 15th is 84F.

When you factor in the moisture in the air, it is not going to feel all that great outside Monday. Most of the state looks to see heat index values climb into the 90s, and there are parts of southwestern Minnesota that could see heat index values climb into the 100s.

Some stronger winds are also possible on Monday. In the Twin Cities, we will see sustained winds out of the south-southwest at 10-15 mph, but gusts could top 20 mph at times.

We will continue to see warm and sticky air stick around this week in the Twin Cities, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. The coolest day of the week will be Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid-80s. Warmer weather will push back northward, though, to end the week.

The good news in the extended forecast for those who don't like these hot temperatures is that as we head toward the last full week of July we should see some cooler air move back into the region with highs potentially in the 70s at times.

We will see at least the chance of showers and storms throughout much of the work week in the Twin Cities, with drier weather possible Friday before more rain chances move back on Saturday.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, Tropical Depression Barry will continue to bring heavy rain across parts of the lower and middle Mississippi Valleys. A frontal boundary in place from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic will help spark off some showers and storms. A cold front extending from northern Minnesota to the Northern Plains will also be the focus for some storms, some of which could be severe. A few afternoon storms will be possible across the central Rockies.

Through Tuesday evening, the heaviest rain across the lower 48 will be due to Barry in the lower and middle Mississippi Valleys. In these areas, additional rain totals of at least 3-7" are possible. In the upper Midwest, rain totals could approach an inch in some locations.


Latest On Barry

Barry was downgraded to a tropical depression late Sunday afternoon while over northwestern Louisiana. The storm will continue north and northeast over the next couple days and is expected to become a remnant low by Monday Night. It will still pose a heavy rain threat across portions of the Mississippi Valley through the beginning of the work week.


Bad weather drives down Iowa casino revenue

More from the Sioux City Journal: "Iowa’s state-licensed casinos weathered a tough financial year marred by flooding — especially in Sioux City and other western locations — that watered down overall revenue by about $6.8 million and washed away profits at more than half the facilities."

Alaska Chokes on Wildfires as Heat Waves Dry Out the Arctic

More from InsideClimate News: "Under the choking black smoke from the bog and forest fires in Siberia and Alaska, it can feel like the Earth itself is burning. The normally moist, black organic peat soil and lush forests have been drying, and when they catch fire, they burn relentlessly. Global warming has been thawing tundra and drying vast stretches of the far-northern boreal forests, and it also has spurred more thunderstorms with lightning, which triggered many of the fires burning in Alaska this year, said Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist with the International Arctic Research Center who closely tracks Alaskan and Arctic extreme weather. So far this year, wildfires have scorched more than 1.2 million acres in Alaska, making it one of the state's three biggest fire years on record to this date, with high fire danger expected to persist in the weeks ahead."

Metro Vancouver climate committee supports carbon neutrality in 2050

More from the Vancouver Sun: "Metro Vancouver’s Climate Action Committee, in response to the current climate crisis, threw its support behind a proposal Friday to make the region “carbon neutral” by 2050. Vancouver city councillor and chair of the committee Adriane Carr asked members Friday to endorse a report that would update Metro’s Climate 2050 Strategic Framework to support a 100 per cent net reduction in greenhouse gases instead of an 80 per cent reduction. Members supported the proposal, which still must be voted on later this month by the Metro Vancouver board."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser


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