Update: On Track for Record May Snow (3-5" by Thursday morning; more for some suburbs)
May 1, 2013 — 10:31am
2.42" precipitation by Saturday night. Rain/snow mix changes to all snow tonight, but the atmosphere should be warm enough for rain Friday into Saturday.
3": most snow from a May storm in the Twin Cities (1946). There is now a 60-70% probability we will break that record.
12z RPM Model. Expect a mix of rain and wet snow during the day today, but with surface (and ground) temperatures above freezing I don't expect anything to stick until late afternoon or evening. The best chance of accumulation is between 8 pm and 3 am tomorrow; I'm still thinking 3-5" for much of the metro - as much as 5-8" in a few suburban locations. Expect a slow and slushy morning commute, roads mainly wet by late morning - a much easier drive home. No, I can't quite believe I'm writing this on May 1 either.
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What can you say about Saturday? As fine a day as I can ever remember (anytime, anywhere). Extraordinary doesn't quite sum it up adequately. I expect more clouds today, even a shower north of MSP this morning, but we should see more 60s today and Monday before a reality check on Tuesday. Probably just a cold rain in the metro but a slushy surprise may await parts of central and northern Minnesota by Tuesday night. I can hardly wait!
Good luck staying indoors the next couple of days. Plan on enough sun for upper 60s to near 70F, with low humidity and a reasonable bug count. A few showers and T-storms Monday mark the leading edge of a cooler front, but nothing too traumatic is brewing in the 7-Day.
Now we're getting the sloppy storms we should have experienced in March. Back in February we were getting weather more typical of early April. Makes perfect sense to me. The sun stays out most of today and Saturday, your faith in a Minnesota spring restored. At least for the moment. If you listen carefully you can almost hear your lawn growing...
If you liked yesterday you will LOVE today as showers taper and a raw northwest breeze tries to dry things out a little by the dinner hour. It won't be as wet as yesterday. Just a downpour here with thunder and lightning, but severe storms pushed across Iowa. I see a cool, wet bias into next week, but long-range models hint at a warming trend by early May.
Hey, it's just rain, not snow, not ice, plain-Jane-rain. The atmosphere is cool and stable enough that we don't have to worry about those unpleasant spring storm side-effects, like hail, high water, lightning and tornadoes. But we are rapidly moving into prime time for severe outbreaks and we need to be prepared. Details on the blog.