Update: On Track for Record May Snow (3-5" by Thursday morning; more for some suburbs)
May 1, 2013 — 10:31am
2.42" precipitation by Saturday night. Rain/snow mix changes to all snow tonight, but the atmosphere should be warm enough for rain Friday into Saturday.
3": most snow from a May storm in the Twin Cities (1946). There is now a 60-70% probability we will break that record.
12z RPM Model. Expect a mix of rain and wet snow during the day today, but with surface (and ground) temperatures above freezing I don't expect anything to stick until late afternoon or evening. The best chance of accumulation is between 8 pm and 3 am tomorrow; I'm still thinking 3-5" for much of the metro - as much as 5-8" in a few suburban locations. Expect a slow and slushy morning commute, roads mainly wet by late morning - a much easier drive home. No, I can't quite believe I'm writing this on May 1 either.
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Only in Minnesota can you be knee-deep in flood waters with dust blowing in your face. Weather has always been extreme at this latitude, but there's growing evidence the swings are becoming even bigger. Which brings up the challenge (and opportunity) of managing water: too much water, or not enough water. More showers sprout today but generally dry weather is likely Friday into Sunday as temperatures moderate. The first week of August may feel more like mid-July.
Another free lawn-watering today (showers and T-storms, probably not severe) gives way to a clearing trend and a drop in humidity Thursday. The upcoming weekend looks lake-friendly, warm, but not obnoxiously so. Next week may see a few more 90s with a couple days of dew points in the oh-zone.
Monday was a fine summer day; a touch of heat and humidity, but not as swamp-like as late last week. We may brush 90F today before cooling off later this week - a good chance of heavy showers and T-storms Wednesday and Thursday. Long-range models hint at another hot front as early as next week.
Both Sunday and Monday will be excellent days to get outside, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. At least the heat we've had recently isn't like what they've seen in the Middle East. Click through for more details. - D.J. Kayser