Update: On Track for Record May Snow (3-5" by Thursday morning; more for some suburbs)
May 1, 2013 — 10:31am
2.42" precipitation by Saturday night. Rain/snow mix changes to all snow tonight, but the atmosphere should be warm enough for rain Friday into Saturday.
3": most snow from a May storm in the Twin Cities (1946). There is now a 60-70% probability we will break that record.
12z RPM Model. Expect a mix of rain and wet snow during the day today, but with surface (and ground) temperatures above freezing I don't expect anything to stick until late afternoon or evening. The best chance of accumulation is between 8 pm and 3 am tomorrow; I'm still thinking 3-5" for much of the metro - as much as 5-8" in a few suburban locations. Expect a slow and slushy morning commute, roads mainly wet by late morning - a much easier drive home. No, I can't quite believe I'm writing this on May 1 either.
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Well, the sun did come out by late afternoon and evening, allowing us to salvage a little of our Memorial Day, especially central and southern Minnesota. Up North it was a total wash-out, but then again the weather Up North was pretty fine Friday and Saturday. We dry out today, a few 80s by Wednesday and Thursday before we dry out and cool down for the weekend. It could be worse - you could be looking for higher ground in Austin, Texas.
Look at the bright side: you won't have to worry about a painful sunburn today - and watering will be optional until further notice. The big news, of course, is that the drought continues to ease as we limp into a much wetter pattern, one that shows no sign of quitting into early June. Details on Memorial Day weather, and why we won't be getting another boat anytime soon, in today's weather blog.
NOAA's NAM model prints out 2.49" rain between now and late Monday night. Naturally. Major holidays attract storms and this Memorial Day should be no exception. I hope you had a chance to spend some time outside yesterday. The weather was so-so in the metro but gorgeous up north. Today and tomorrow: not so much. That said (while gritting my teeth) we do need the rain.
It's always a good idea to lower your expectations on a holiday, and Memorial Day is no exception. Today won't be all bad - some dim sun through increasing mid and high-level clouds. Showers and T-storms slosh into the state Sunday with the heaviest rain Sunday night into Monday morning. Skies may brighten up a little Monday afternoon, but don't count on it. Personally I'd make the most of today.
Thursday will be tough to top but we may come close today with less wind, a brilliant-blue sky and highs in the 70s. If you can start your holiday celebration today and Saturday you'll be in good shape. The potential for showers and a few embedded T-showers increases Sunday and Monday. Yep, looks like a holiday.