Heavy September Rain Expected As Well As Severe Storms
A storm system moving through the upper Midwest over the next couple of days is expected to bring heavy rain along with it, especially during the day Thursday. Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Friday evening could top 2-4" across portions of central and southern Minnesota. This will have the potential to lead to some flash flooding.
Due to the heavy rain potential, especially across parts of southern Minnesota, Flash Flood Watches are in effect from this evening into Thursday. This includes areas like Worthington, Mankato, Albert Lea, and Rochester.
Some of this rain will impact parts of the state that have already received heavy rain this month. Through Tuesday, Rochester was already running over 3" above average rainfall-wise so far this month, with the Twin Cities 1.14" above average. With 5.42" of rain in Rochester through Tuesday, it was the 6th wettest start to September on record, and if no additional rain fell it would be the 20th wettest September. Rochester only needs 1.05" of additional rain to observe a top ten wettest September on record (the wettest was 1986 when 10.50" fell).
This system moving through Thursday will also bring the potential of strong to severe storms along with it. There is an Enhanced Risk of severe weather in place across parts of southern and eastern Minnesota. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes would be the main threats, along with the potential of large hail especially early on.
Unusually Wet and Severe For Late September
By Paul Douglas
I have a sudden urge to sleep in 'til the crack on noon. On Friday. Today may wind up being one of the wettest days of 2018. Weather models print out 3-4 inches of rain (about 6 week's worth) in the next 12-18 hours.
NOAA has issued a Flash Flood Watch for far southern Minnesota, where the ground is already saturated from recent heavy rains, but street and stream flooding may also be a factor closer to the Twin Cities and St. Cloud.
My humble advice: leave plenty of extra time to get around, slow down on the highways and turn your headlights on! Not to see, but to BE SEEN.
There is an "enhanced risk" of severe T-storms by midday and afternoon, with an unusually unstable airmass overhead. Be on the lookout for T-storms capable of large hail. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out, either. Unusual for late September? You 'betcha.
Skies clear Friday afternoon, with a partly sunny, dry weekend for most of Minnesota. A swipe of autumnal air arrives next week - I could see a light frost into central Minnesota within a week.
Fall arrives 8:54 PM Saturday. Hurry up Mother Nature!
Extended Twin Cities Forecast
THURSDAY: Flooding, severe T-storms. High 72. Low 54. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind E 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Windy & cooler with slow clearing. High 59. Low 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 67. Low 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, milder breeze. High 73. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Dry start, PM showers & T-storms. High 76. Low 52. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler. High 64. Low 49. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with showers. High 60. Low 43. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
This Day in Weather History
2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Freeborn and Faribault counties.
1972: A downpour in Duluth produces 5 1/2 inches in ten hours.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
Average High: 70F (Record: 91F set in 1931)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 28F set in 1962)
Average Precipitation: 0.10" (Record: 1.82" set in 1902)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 16 minutes and 25 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 6 seconds
*Next Sunrise Of 7:00 AM Or Later: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 7:00 PM Or Earlier: September 27th (7:00 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 12 Hours Of Daylight?: September 26th (11 hours, 57 minutes, 46 seconds)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
A wet and mainly chilly Thursday is expected across much of Minnesota, with highs for central and northern Minnesota only in the 50s and 60s. Some areas across southern Minnesota - including the Twin Cities and Mankato - will be able to climb into the 70s for highs, with some 80s possible in southeast Minnesota as a warm front lifts north across that region.
For areas of central and northern Minnesota, highs will be a good 5-10 degrees below average for September 20th. Meanwhile, those that do get in the 80s in southeast Minnesota would be a good 10 degrees above average.
Taking a look at the temperature trend for the Twin Cities... yes, it appears Fall has officially arrived, with highs remaining in the 70s or cooler for the forseeable future. There could be areas of central Minnesota that see some frosty morning by late next week.
Precipitation-wise, at least a couple inches of rain is possible as this system moves through the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our next chance of rain then moves in with a cold front Monday across the region.
National Weather Forecast
An area of low pressure will move through the upper Midwest Thursday, bringing showers and storms along with it. Parts of this region could see 1-2"+ of rain during the day. Showers and storms will be possible along the Gulf Coast and with a trough of low pressure extending along the Front Range. Some higher elevation areas of Washington, Montana and Wyoming could see some snow.
Two areas of heavy rain area expected through Monday morning. One of those areas is across the upper Midwest with a storm system moving through the region through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure moving across parts of the southern Plains Friday into the weekend will bring the potential of heavy rain as well from northern Texas to southern Missouri.
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