Heavy September Rain Expected As Well As Severe Storms

A storm system moving through the upper Midwest over the next couple of days is expected to bring heavy rain along with it, especially during the day Thursday. Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Friday evening could top 2-4" across portions of central and southern Minnesota. This will have the potential to lead to some flash flooding.

Due to the heavy rain potential, especially across parts of southern Minnesota, Flash Flood Watches are in effect from this evening into Thursday. This includes areas like Worthington, Mankato, Albert Lea, and Rochester.

Some of this rain will impact parts of the state that have already received heavy rain this month. Through Tuesday, Rochester was already running over 3" above average rainfall-wise so far this month, with the Twin Cities 1.14" above average. With 5.42" of rain in Rochester through Tuesday, it was the 6th wettest start to September on record, and if no additional rain fell it would be the 20th wettest September. Rochester only needs 1.05" of additional rain to observe a top ten wettest September on record (the wettest was 1986 when 10.50" fell).

This system moving through Thursday will also bring the potential of strong to severe storms along with it. There is an Enhanced Risk of severe weather in place across parts of southern and eastern Minnesota. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes would be the main threats, along with the potential of large hail especially early on.


Unusually Wet and Severe For Late September
By Paul Douglas

I have a sudden urge to sleep in 'til the crack on noon. On Friday. Today may wind up being one of the wettest days of 2018. Weather models print out 3-4 inches of rain (about 6 week's worth) in the next 12-18 hours.

NOAA has issued a Flash Flood Watch for far southern Minnesota, where the ground is already saturated from recent heavy rains, but street and stream flooding may also be a factor closer to the Twin Cities and St. Cloud.

My humble advice: leave plenty of extra time to get around, slow down on the highways and turn your headlights on! Not to see, but to BE SEEN.

There is an "enhanced risk" of severe T-storms by midday and afternoon, with an unusually unstable airmass overhead. Be on the lookout for T-storms capable of large hail. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out, either. Unusual for late September? You 'betcha.

Skies clear Friday afternoon, with a partly sunny, dry weekend for most of Minnesota. A swipe of autumnal air arrives next week - I could see a light frost into central Minnesota within a week.

Fall arrives 8:54 PM Saturday. Hurry up Mother Nature!


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Flooding, severe T-storms. High 72. Low 54. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind E 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Windy & cooler with slow clearing. High 59. Low 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. High 67. Low 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, milder breeze. High 73. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Dry start, PM showers & T-storms. High 76. Low 52. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler. High 64. Low 49. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with showers. High 60. Low 43. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.


This Day in Weather History
September 20th

2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Freeborn and Faribault counties.

1972: A downpour in Duluth produces 5 1/2 inches in ten hours.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
September 20th

Average High: 70F (Record: 91F set in 1931)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 28F set in 1962)
Average Precipitation: 0.10" (Record: 1.82" set in 1902)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 20th

Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 16 minutes and 25 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 6 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 7:00 AM Or Later: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 7:00 PM Or Earlier: September 27th (7:00 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 12 Hours Of Daylight?: September 26th (11 hours, 57 minutes, 46 seconds)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

A wet and mainly chilly Thursday is expected across much of Minnesota, with highs for central and northern Minnesota only in the 50s and 60s. Some areas across southern Minnesota - including the Twin Cities and Mankato - will be able to climb into the 70s for highs, with some 80s possible in southeast Minnesota as a warm front lifts north across that region.

For areas of central and northern Minnesota, highs will be a good 5-10 degrees below average for September 20th. Meanwhile, those that do get in the 80s in southeast Minnesota would be a good 10 degrees above average.

Taking a look at the temperature trend for the Twin Cities... yes, it appears Fall has officially arrived, with highs remaining in the 70s or cooler for the forseeable future. There could be areas of central Minnesota that see some frosty morning by late next week.

Precipitation-wise, at least a couple inches of rain is possible as this system moves through the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our next chance of rain then moves in with a cold front Monday across the region.


National Weather Forecast

An area of low pressure will move through the upper Midwest Thursday, bringing showers and storms along with it. Parts of this region could see 1-2"+ of rain during the day. Showers and storms will be possible along the Gulf Coast and with a trough of low pressure extending along the Front Range. Some higher elevation areas of Washington, Montana and Wyoming could see some snow.

Two areas of heavy rain area expected through Monday morning. One of those areas is across the upper Midwest with a storm system moving through the region through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure moving across parts of the southern Plains Friday into the weekend will bring the potential of heavy rain as well from northern Texas to southern Missouri.


Before-and-after aerial photos show destruction, beach erosion on North Carolina coastline

More from CNN: "Aerial images captured the destruction Hurricane Florence inflicted on the North Carolina coastline, from lines of houses shorn of their shingles to sand-covered streets. The pictures were shot by planes outfitted with cameras taking "high-definition aerial photos" and collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The photos are vital to assessing damage and organizing the assistance that's needed. The latest post-Hurricane Florence photos were taken Tuesday; NOAA told CNN that the pre-Florence photos were taken in 2014. In one image, the southernmost portions of Topsail Beach's main thoroughfare, Anderson Boulevard, are still covered with dark standing water. Ocean Boulevard, one of the side streets, is completely covered with sand. "

Florence hammers North Carolina agriculture and killing 3.4 million chickens, turkeys

More from CNBC: "Florence, the storm that swept into the American Southeast as a hurricane last week, inundated wide swaths of the Carolinas, leaving more than 30 people dead.  The storm, which is now broken into remnants, moved out of the area, leaving behind massive destruction, including in the region's agricultural industry.  North Carolina's poultry sector suffered the loss of at least 3.4 million birds, including chickens and turkeys, as a result of Florence, the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services announced late Tuesday. The swine industry losses are now estimated at about 5,500 hogs, the department added.  Previously, one of the state's major poultry producers had estimated the loss of about 1.7 million chickens."

A groundbreaking Hurricane Florence study could change how we think about climate

More from Grist: "As Hurricane Florence approached the Carolinas last week, up to 1 million residents boarded up their windows, emptied grocery shelves and gas pumps, and evacuated with their families to escape the storm’s impending wrath. Simultaneously, scientists in other parts of the country were scrambling to produce a landmark study: one that would put numbers to just how much worse climate change had made this dangerous storm.  They found that the slow-moving hurricane would bring 50 percent more rain to the Carolinas due to climate change. The researchers from Stony Brook University in New York and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California released their findings on Wednesday — two days before the storm even made landfall."

New Jersey opens biggest offshore wind solicitation at 1.1 GW, expects 2.4 GW more

More from Utility Drive: "The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) opened on Monday the largest single-state solicitation of offshore wind in the U.S., for 1,100 MW of capacity. The BPU aims to act on applications by July 1, 2019. Federal investment tax credits for offshore wind developers are currently set to expire at the end of next year and the BPU press release estimates tax credits could cover 12% of the total project's price tag. Dem. Gov. Phil Murphy asked the BPU last week to open two additional 1,200 MW solicitations in 2020 and in 2022. The state is working toward a 3,500 MW goal of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and a 100% clean energy goal by 2050."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Thursday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser


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Southern Minnesota Severe Storms - September Finally Showing Up on the Weather Maps