Longing for Sunshine...

Can't beat a summer sunset, especially on a lake! Thanks to Stephanie Chanaka Johnson for the picture below, who snapped this over the weekend. Too bad you couldn't bottle up that weather for cool, rainy days like this Tuesday and Wednesday... Let me know if you figure out how to do that!


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Soggy Weather Ahead

"A very unlike summer storm system will affect the Upper Midwest beginning later today, and lasting until late Wednesday night. This system will produced very heavy rainfall, strong storms, and windy conditions."


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Wet Basement Alert
By Paul Douglas

A dear friend (Pete) sent me a frantic e-mail yesterday. "We got flooded really bad. The Aeris Pulse (app) notified me but there was nothing we could do.  Everything in the basement is ruined. 4.5 inches in the rain gauge."

30 years ago climate scientists predicted that wet areas would get wetter and dry areas would get drier. Low and behold that appears to be what's unfolding on the weather map.

According to Homeland Security floods kill more Minnesotans than any other weather event; 15 people have died since 1993. And property insurance does not typically cover flood damage. Talk to your insurance representative; you may need an additional homeowners policy rider to cover the inevitable flash floods to come.

Pete, just hang out in the basement with a fresh mop. An unusually strong storm (for mid-August) sparks high winds and 1 to 2 inches of rain; more like a storm in April or October. A true soaker. Adding to the bizarre factor: temperatures won't climb out of the 60s. Was it 94F four days ago? Serious weather whiplash.

70s are the rule into next week but long-range guidance brings 90s into Minnesota by the end of August. Just in time for the Minnesota State Fair!
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MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered showers. Low: 59. Winds: NNE 5

TUESDAY: Widely scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rain. High: 68. Winds: ENE 15-25

TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms with heavy rain. Low: 58. Winds: SSE 15-25.

WEDNESDAY: Feels like fall. Breezy and cooler with lingering showers. High: 69. Winds: WNW 15-25

THURSDAY: Sunny and drier. Not as windy. Wake-up: 55. High: 76

FRIDAY:Blue sky & warmer. Wake-up: 61. High: 80.

SATURDAY: Sticky sun, strong T-storms late. Wake-up: 67. High: 82

SUNDAY: Wet start. Turning drier, better. Wake-up: 62. High: 74.

MONDAY: Plenty of sun, comfortable. Wake-up: 58. High: 79.
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This Day in Weather History
August 18th

1953: Four heifers near St. Martin were lucky; a tornado picked them up and set them back down again, unharmed.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 18th

Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1976)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 41F set in 1977)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 18th

Sunrise: 6:18am
Sunset: 8:14pm
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Moon Phase for August 18th at Midnight
3.5 Day Before First Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

UNCLE! Where did summer go? Highs in the 60s Tuesday/Wednesday will be nearly 15F to 20F below average and more reminiscent of late September/early October. The good news is that we warm up quickly by the weekend with highs back to near average in the upper 70s/low 80s.

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Tuesday Weather Outlook

A vigorous area of low pressure will continue to intensify over the Midwest through midweek. Widespread clouds and rain will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than average with highs in the 60s and 70s (left) across the region. Note that dewpoints (right) range quite a bit from the 40s to the far north to the sticky 70s to the far south.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Scattered showers and storms will move through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with the potential of heavy rain and localized areas of flooding. The images below suggest the weather outlook (left) and winds (right) at 2pm Tuesday.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Here's a different look at the storm moving through the region on Tuesday. It's actually a pretty strong storm system to be scooting through the region in Mid August. This is something we'd see more of during the fall months.

Severe Threat Tuesday

As the storm system slides through the Upper Midwest, a few strong to severe storms may be possible on Tuesday. Parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin are under a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.

Rainfall Potential

Heavy rain and localized areas of flooding can't be ruled out as the storm system slides through the region. Widespread 1" to nearly 2"+ amounts may be possible through PM Wednesday.


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National Weather Outlook

Watch how quickly the are of low pressure in the loop below develops. From AM Tuesday to AM Thursday winds surrounding the low will increase dramatically. Wind gusts on Wednesday could be as high as 30mph+ across the Upper Midwest as the storm slides northeast into Canada. The trailing cold front will be responsible for strong to severe storms over the coming days with locally heavy rainfall.

Severe Threat Tuesday

...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE SEWD INTO BASE OF THIS FEATURE. DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN A SFC LOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. BY 12Z TODAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SRN NEB THEN SWWD THROUGH WRN KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD DURING THE DAY AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS NEWD AND DEEPENS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEP CYCLONE OVER SRN MN THEN SWWD INTO NRN TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN KS WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

Severe Weather Wednesday

...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall forecast looks quite impressive across parts of the eastern of the U.S. through Saturday. Some of the heaviest looks to fall across parts of the Upper Midwest with as much as 2" to nearly 3"+ possible, which may lead to localized areas of flooding. Meanwhile, note that the western part of the country looks to stay mostly dry, which is unfortunate news for several large wildfires that continue to burn there.


Large Fire Map

This map from the National Interagency Fire Center suggests several large wildfires buring in the Western U.S.. A large Incident is described as a wildfire of 100 acres or more occuring in timber, or a wildfire of 300 acres or more occuring in grass/sage.

Here were the latest stats as of August 17th:

National Preparedness Level
Level 5
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (176 new fires)
New large incidents: 11
Large fires contained: 5
Uncontained large fires: 95
Area Command Teams committed: 2


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What's Brewing in the Atlantic?

It has been a very quiet so far this season in the Atlantic basin. There have only been 3 tropical system through mid August, but another one may be developing.

"On Monday morning, NHC was monitoring an area of low pressure located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The shower activity associated with it continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward."

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

See more from the National Hurricane Center HERE:
 


Problems in the Pacific Ocean

Take a look at the dual typhoons in the Western Pacific. GONI and ATSONI are strong typhoon heading west. Unfortunately, the western-most tyhpoon (GONI) could impact Taiwan again by late this week! ATSONI looks to steer more northwesterly.

Typhoon GONI

This was Typhoon GONI from Monday evening (CDT), which was equivalent to a low end category 4 storm with sustained winds up to 132mph. Unfortunately, GONI is tracking west toward Tawain and could be there later this week...

Typhoon GONI Track

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon GONI is tracking west toward Taiwan and could be there by Saturday. It'll be interesting to see whether or not GONI stays on its current track. It would be unfortunate to see another strong typhoon hit Taiwan after last week strong Typhoon SOUDELOR

Typhoon ATSONI

According to The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon ATSONI was an equivalent category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of near 120mph. ATSONI could become a Super Typhoon with sustained winds near 160mph by midweek!

Tracking ATSONI

The good news is that this typhoon is expected to track a little more northwestern rather than westerly like GONI. At this point, ATSONI looks to be a bigger problem for ships and slow moving whales... stay tuned.


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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