The Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9pm, which includes the TWIN CITIES!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
STORMS ARRIVE MID AFTERNOON
The HRRR forecast simulated radar has storms arriving around the Twin Cities from 3pm and lasting thru 6pm or 7pm.
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Look at the bright side, we could be tracking tornadic thunderstorms....or flash flooding...or river flooding...or wildfires. A little slush won't hurt anyone on Monday, and whatever falls should be gone by Tuesday. 75-150 miles north and west of MSP may be a different story with enough snow to shovel and scrape, delighting locals! Hard to believe but we should be in the 60s next weekend as spring stages a comeback. Whew...
Oh brother. The entire weather blog should be a series of apologetic disclaimers today. We still don't know what we don't know, but models continue to suggest accumulating slush late in the weekend, especially Sunday night when we lose the sun's infrared radiation. No problems today; the sun may even peek through. Saturday looks tolerable, but Sunday will be a good Netflix-day with a cold rain mixing with or even changing to wet snow late. Monday, the 1st day of May, could bring plowable amounts of snow to portions of Minnesota. Where those heavy snow bands will set up is anyone's guess right now. Stay tuned.
Well, at least you won't be distracted by blue sky and chirping birds anytime soon - easier to focus on work, school and errands. Flurries may provide a mild jolt today; models still hinting at accumulating slush by Monday (but it's wildly premature to speculate about amounts). Spring fever returns in roughly one week. That's the thing about spring - across most of the USA it's taken as a foregone conclusion. Here in Minnesota, not so much. Minnesotans earn their springs.
We're paying a steep price for last weekend. I grant you it was very nice, especially Saturday, but I would have taken 10 degrees off the afternoon high temperature just to avoid saying the s-word again. Then again, July is the only month where snow hasn't been reported somewhere in Minnesota. Share that with a friend if you're hoping for shocked silence.
Monday turned out a little nicer than expected: low 70s with glimmers of sun. I think it sprinkled for 3 minutes or so. Not bad at all. We got all that "nice weather" out of the way, now it's time for a little payback, served runny and cold. Just rain today into much of Wednesday, but enough cold air may mix down for a slushy mix Wednesday PM, even an inch of snow close to the MSP metro by Thursday morning. Spring in Minnesota is a cool, cruel mistress. You'll see.