The Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9pm, which includes the TWIN CITIES!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
STORMS ARRIVE MID AFTERNOON
The HRRR forecast simulated radar has storms arriving around the Twin Cities from 3pm and lasting thru 6pm or 7pm.
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Mark my words: many of us will soon look back fondly on this spell of relatively cool, crisp, comfortable weather. Long-range models are still printing out sustained heat for much of July; more lake-worthy temperatures are less than a week away, and I suspect another run of 90s by mid-July. In the meantime take something waterproof today because showers and T-storms are likely, some heavy, but the best chance of severe weather passes just south and east of the MSP metro.
Soaking rains arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some lawns and gardens could get a healthy drink as models are suggesting nearly 1 inch of rain in a few spots. A few sputtery rain showers will be possible on Friday and Saturday, but it won't be a washout. Hot and sweaty weather looks to return by July 4th.
Yes, I know. It's too cool for the lake. I feel your pain - there were whitecaps on my lake too, and only the brave and foolish were in the water. This cool spell isn't sustainable. The sun is too high in the sky - there is too much overheated air over the southern USA. At some point it will warm up. Probably overnight. Like turning on a light switch. Might I recommend that you embrace the comfortable readings, because within 1-2 weeks young and old alike will be muttering about the heat and humidity. Wait for it.
Saturday was interesting, more early October than late June. Instability showers and T-storms dropped small hail, sparking wind gusts over 40 mph. Today should be a notch better with more sun and fewer showers popping by afternoon. Temperatures mellow a bit this week, but I don't see 80s until the latter half of next week. A lot of people are whining about the lack of lake-worthy heat, but I don't mind the free A/C one bit.
Just think of all the cold cash you're going to save on cold pop, ice cream and A/C this weekend! I know - not funny. Minnesotans get indignant when their summer weekends don't match what they were daydreaming about a few months ago. The weather won't be lake-worthy, but at least we're not suffering through a dangerous heatwave, like much of the southwestern USA and southern Plains. Be careful what you wish for...