The Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9pm, which includes the TWIN CITIES!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
STORMS ARRIVE MID AFTERNOON
The HRRR forecast simulated radar has storms arriving around the Twin Cities from 3pm and lasting thru 6pm or 7pm.
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I had an aunt who was utterly convinced that I worked in Indianapolis.I think she honestly believed all the "apolis" towns were really one. OK. Not a brain surgeon but she meant well. After a numbing start the long climb begins, a streak of 30s next week, even a couple days in the 40s late next week. More like March than February. We could still squeeze out a couple inches of snow on Sunday, but right now I can't get too excited about amounts; maybe 1-2" for the metro, more closer to the Iowa line.
The next 36 hours will be a blunt reminder that Minnesota still gets cold from time to time. But this winter has been milder than average, not even close to a couple years ago. Despite a subzero Saturday morning the forecast calls for a thaw next week; 40 degrees possible one week from today. El Nino is still hanging on. Will spring of 2016 be as severe as the last big (fading) El Nino in '98? I think we should probably be prepared for a more active spring severe season.
It's February in Minnesota. And you're annoyed that it's cold? That's a little like a sushi lover turning up his nose at the smell of fresh fish. This is hardly atypical for midwinter, and yes, it's going to get colder by Saturday morning. But (all) long range models show a warming trend next week with a shot at 40s in 8 days. Won't that be a relief...
No, we won't be cleaning up the yard or barbecuing anytime soon, but after a run of colder than average weather 30s will feel like a meteorological bargain next week - some guidance even hinting at 40s by the end of next week. Snow? A little here and there, but no headline-grabbing storms are brewing just yet.
I may be grasping at straws (or icicles) but there are numerous advantages to the chill. As annoying as it can be, there are benefits. Repeat that like a well-worn mantra in the coming days because we enjoy a dearth of warmth into Saturday - not as cold as mid-January, but cold enough for most of us. No big snows, no drama, just a noticeable lack of kinetic energy.