Tornado Warning. The Twin Cities office of the NWS has issued a Tornado Warning for the Marshall area. A line of strong to severe storms is blossoming south and west of the Twin Cities, with heavy rain likely in the metro by midnight or 1 AM. Some locations in central and southern Minnesota could pick up another 1-3" of rain overnight with isolated 4-5" amounts. Details on the Tornado Warning:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1028 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
* AT 1026 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... COTTONWOOD AROUND 1050 PM CDT.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Natural variability, El Nino kicking in - many factors may explain why it's been in the 70s and 80s out east (with tornadoes in unusual places for February). Minnesota just experienced the warmest, most prolonged February warmth on record (since 1871). A fluke? Perhaps, but what we're witnessing is consistent with a slowly warming planet. Hate to keep banging the drum, but ignoring the trends won't make them go away.
How did you cope with the (fake) Blizzard of '17? Residents of the metro are rolling their eyes, but 75 miles southeast of MSP it was a full-blown blizzard with a foot of snow, ice and high winds creating treacherous travel conditions. Which is vaguely interesting, but it didn't happen in my yard, so it doesn't matter, right? I get it: all weather, like politics, is local. The sun comes out today with less wind; temperatures moderating into the low 40s early next week.
Back on Monday I predicted "a couple of inches" for today. Then some of NOAA's models began showing crazy amounts of snow, as much as 12-15" in the immediate metro, so I ratcheted up expected snowfall amounts (you can't ignore the NAM model, right?) Turns out my initial instincts were closer to the mark. Heaviest snow bands set up south of the metro with a full-blown blizzard over southern Minnesota. Yet another example where the ECMWF (European) outperforms NOAA's models. Which doesn't make me happy, btw.
There's still a chance of 10 or 12" of snow in the metro, although the odds have dropped a bit as some of NOAA's models catch up with a southward shift in the ECWMF (European) guidance package. The Twin Cities are on the northern edge of plowable snow amounts with the one-foot-plus amounts south of the Minnesota River. Confidence levels are still low for a storm less than 18 hours away - models are all over the map. Literally. This is why meteorologists show up at the isobar some nights.