SUNDAY: Patchy clouds. Late shower. Winds. SSW 5. High: 44.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Light rain/snow mix. Winds: W 5. Low: 32.
MONDAY: Clouds, passing flurries. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 38.
TUESDAY: Dry start. Inch or 2 of snow at night? Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 24. High: 35.
WEDNESDAY: Slick start. A chilling breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 32.
THURSDAY: Blue sky, feels like mid-December. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 17. High: 28.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, still nippy. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 15. High: 37.
SATURDAY: Intervals of sunshine, a bit milder. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 24. High: 42.
This Day in Weather History
1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities.
1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit.
1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 49F (Record: 74F set in 2008)
Average Low: 33F (Record: 8F set in 1991)
Record Rainfall: 0.53" set in 1970
Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 5 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 44 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hours & 38 minutes
Moon Phase for November 3rd at Midnight
0.1 Days Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"At nightfall and early evening – November 1 and 2, 2019 – the waxing crescent moon shines in the vicinity of the planet Saturn, and the dazzling planet Jupiter sits below the moon and Saturn, fairly close to the horizon. As the moon swings by Saturn in early November 2019, it’ll pass to the south of the ringed planet for most of the globe. However, for some far-southern latitudes, the moon will actually occult (cover over) Saturn on November 2, 2019. From New Zealand, this occultation of Saturn will take place at nightfall. (By the time that we in North America see the moon and Saturn at nightfall November 2, 2019, the moon will be well to the east of Saturn.) We refer you to the worldwide map below via IOTA (International Occultation Timing Association), showing in which part of the world this occultation takes place. Only the part of the world between the solid white lines can see the occultation in a nighttime sky. The swath in between the dotted red lines depicts where the occultation happens in daytime; and the area in between the short blue lines shows where the occultation occurs at evening dusk."
See more from Earth Sky HERE:
"November Tornadoes in Minnesota"
"Getting the right ingredients for tornadoes in Minnesota as late as November doesn't happen too often. Only seven tornadoes have been reported in Minnesota since 1930 and four of those tornadoes were reported in 2012. All but one of the November tornadoes have occurred after dark, with the ones in 2012 touching down from 11-11:30pm. Given the time of year with the extended darkness, there could be other tornadoes in the past that were missed because they were not seen. There's been two strong November tornadoes in Minnesota. The latest Minnesota tornado on record is November 16, 1931 near Maple Plain in Hennepin County. There happened to be a Weather Bureau Volunteer Observer in Maple Plain at the time (Geo W. Richards) and he described the tornado: A tornado swept 3/4 mile south and east of this station at 9:35pm moving from sw to NE and NNE. ...a few hundred feet wide and four or five miles in length. (The tornado) Demolished and damaged several barns, machine sheds and windmills. One half mile of (Great Northern Railway) telegraph poles laid flat. Estimated loss by the observer was $10,000 to $15,000. Mr. Richards noted it was 66 degrees at 9pm before the tornado and wound up with 2.33 inches of rain, an impressive amount of rain for mid-November."
Average Tornadoes By State in November
According to NOAA, November is 1 of only 4 months out of the entire year (Nov., Dec., Jan., & Feb.) that does not average a tornado in the state of Minnesota. However, there have been a handful of November tornadoes in Minnesota, including 4 on Saturday, November 10th, 2012. November also holds the latest reported tornado in Minnesota, which was on November 16th, 1931.
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,576 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 31st suggests that there have been a total of 1,576 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1305. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,820 tornadoes were reported.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Temperatures across the nation on Sunday will still be quite chilly across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average for early November. Meanwhile, it'll still be warm along the West Coast, where temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.
National Weather Outlook
As we look ahead through the rest of the weekend, weather conditions look much quieter across much of the nation with the exception of the Upper midwest, where a few clippers possible across into early next week. These clippers may bring light rain/snow chances to the region, but precipitation amounts look fairly light.
Heavy Ranifall Potential
The 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, shows much lighter precipitation potential through the first week of November. There could be some heavier amounts across the Southern Plains and Great Lakes Region, but it doesn't look excessive. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest will stay somewhat active as several clippers roll out of Canada over the next several days. Light rain/snow chances will be possible into next week, but precipitation amounts will remain light.
"The World's Fastest-Thinning Glacier Identified"
"A glacier in Patagonia that has lost half its length in 30 years may be the fastest-thinning glacier on the planet. The glacier, known as Hielo Patagónico Sur 12 (HPS-12), is perched in the Andes mountains in Chile. Researchers reporting in the journal Nature Geoscience in September found that HPS-12 has been losing thickness and retreating inland. According to their analysis of satellite data, the glacier lost 98 feet (30 meters) of ice thickness each year, on average, between 2000 and 2008, near its terminal end. At its fastest, the thinning occurred at a rate of 144 feet (44 m) per year, according to study co-author Etienne Berthier, a glaciologist at the University of Toulouse in France. The section where that thinning was recorded melted away entirely in 2018."
"10 of the Most Scientifically Inaccurate Movies Ever"
"An action-packed science fiction movie could be really entertaining. Just remember there’s a reason for the “fiction” part of the word. It’s hard to forget the frightening image of a frozen New York City shown in The Day After Tomorrow. It’s even harder to understand the science in the movie because of the many inaccuracies, oversimplification, and dramatic embellishments. In the 2004 movie, global warming leads to the next ice age after a series of catastrophic weather events. One major occurrence is that the ocean current stops. Although current circulation is weak, according to a 2018 study, it’s highly unlikely for this change to happen instantly. Another issue: The National Center for Atmospheric Research also told NBC that temperatures could drop in parts of the world, but it would take decades for such a big switch. The movie embellishes how dramatic and quick the change occurs, which makes for good entertainment but not sound science. These cool, fun science facts you never learned in school are true."
"Two Million-Year-Old Gas Bubbles Reveal The Role Of Greenhouse Gases In Earth’s Atmosphere"
"In a paper published in the journal Nature, a group of scientists used air trapped in the bubbles in ice as old as 2 million years to reconstruct levels of carbon-dioxide and methane in Earth's atmosphere. This is the first time scientists were able to study an ice core that old. The record-shattering 200 meters (656 ft) long ice core was recovered in 2015-16 in the Allan Hills of Antarctica. Past studies using ice cores reconstructed the fluctuations of the two important greenhouse gases carbon-dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) back to 800,000 years. The studies have shown that atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels are directly linked to Antarctic and global temperatures. In the last one million years Earth's climate fluctuated between cold glacials and warmer interglacials every 100,000 years. But between 2.8 million years and one million years, those cycles were shorter, about 40,000 years."
"The Coming Flood: A Data Error Is Corrected, and Our Future Is Rewritten"
"A new study on sea level rise reveals parts of Asia and the Middle East are in far more peril than we thought. What’s happening in California right now — blackouts, wildfires, mass evacuations — should tell you everything you need to know about the urgency of the climate crisis. But the hard truth is, the flames in California are just one aspect of life on a superheated planet. Every once in a while, climate scientists publish a new study that clarifies just how dire the climate crisis really is for millions of people around the world. One such paper was published in Nature Communications this week by scientists at Climate Central. The paper corrects what was essentially a data error in previous calculations about how many people are at risk from rising seas. The results stunned even some of the world’s top climate scientists:"
"What It’s Like to Work in a Flying Smoke Laboratory"
"Most scientists’ labs don’t fly. Most scientists’ labs are also not packed in the interior of a DC-8 jet doing loopy maneuvers at low altitudes. This joint NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) mission, though, is not a typical science lab. And it’s not doing typical experiments. The FIREX-AQ (Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality) mission spent the summer flying planes through smoke plumes associated with wildfires and planned agricultural burns to understand how the air we breathe—and our health—is impacted by fire. This monumental research effort will eventually lead to better forecasts and alerts to communities downwind of serious smoke pollution. The wildland-urban interface is where homes are in or near flammable vegetation. Structures here are frequently damaged in wildfires, putting people at risk of death or injury. From 1990 to 2010, the number of new houses in the wildland-urban interface in the U.S. grew by 41 percent from 30.8 million to 43.4 million. This encroachment of homes into wildlands and rising temperatures will likely not only lead to the continued loss of property and life but also exposure to smoke and the attendant health risks."
"The science of drought is complex but the message on climate change is clear"
"The issue of whether Australia’s current drought is caused by climate change has been seized on by some media commentators, with debate raging over a remark from eminent scientist Andy Pitman that “there is no link between climate change and drought”. Professor Pitman has since qualified, he meant to say “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”. A highly politicised debate that tries to corner scientists will not do much to help rural communities struggling with the ongoing dry. But it is still worthwhile understanding the complexity of how climate change relates to drought. So, why the contention? It may seem like splitting hairs to focus on single words, but the reality is drought is complex, and broad definitive statements are difficult to make. Nevertheless, aspects of drought are linked with climate change. Let us try to give you a taste of the complexity. First, it’s important to understand that drought is a manifestation of interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and land. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology uses rainfall deficiencies to identify regions that are under drought conditions. Anyone on the land doesn’t need to be reminded, but the current drought is seriously bad. These maps show the patterns of rainfall deficiency over the past 36 and 18 months, highlighting the severity and extent of what we call meteorological drought."
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