Snowy Start Saturday
 
A fast moving clipper scooted through the region overnight Friday and early Saturday morning, which brought some of us our first coating of snow of the season. It wasn't much, but it sure looked pretty when the sun came up on Saturday. That quick burst of snow also made area roads VERY slippery in the morning and there were several accidents reported. Interestingly, our average first measurable snowfall at MSP (which is considered to be a 0.1" or more) is on November 4th. Those averages are based on when records began back in the late 1800s. The average first 1" snowfall at MSP is on November 19th. If you go off of the last 30 years, the average first 0.1" is November 6th and the average first 1" is November 20th.
 

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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Sunday will be another chilly day with high temps only warming into the mid 40s, which will be a few degrees below average for the early part of November. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy with south to south easterly winds at 5mph to 10mph. Much of the day will remain dry, but there is another clipper that will move in after sunset that could bring more light rain/snow to the region Sunday evening into Monday.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook across the region for Sunday, which still looks cooler than average for everyone. Highs will range from the mid/upper 40s across the southern part of the state to the mid/upper 30s across the northern half of the state. We should start off on a dry note, but another clipper arrives during the PM hours with another batch of light rain/snow showers. There could be a few minor coatings of snow when you wake up Monday morning, but it won't be much. Also note that area roads could be slippery on Monday morning, so be careful!
 
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Sunday Night Clipper
 
Here's the simulated radar from AM Sunday to PM Monday, which shows our next clipper sliding through the region with another light rain/snow chance. Keep in mind that total precipitation amounts will be fairly light, but there could be some minor snow accumulations by AM monday.
 

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Another Midweek Clipper
 
Weather conditions remain active across the Upper Midwest as we head through the first full week of November. After Sunday night's clipper, we get a brief break in the action before our next clipper arrives PM Tuesday into Wednesday. This system won't bring a ton of moisture with it, but it will drop another minor coating of snow across parts of the region. Note that temps behind this system will drop quite a bit with highs only warming into the mid/upper 20s in the Twin Cities, which will be the coldest day we've seen since early March 2018, nearly 8 months ago!
 
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Thursday: Coldest Day Since Early March
 
Take a look at the forecast for Thursday - YIKES! High temps will only warm into the 20s across the state, which will be more typical of the 2nd and 3rd week of December. These readings will be nearly -20F below average for early November, so bundle up if you're planning on spending anytime outdoors.
 
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MSP 7-Day Outlook
 
The 7-day outlook for MSP looks quite chilly as we head into the first full week of November. Note that temps will warm into the low/mid 40s on Sunday and Monday, but following our midweek clipper, temps will likely dip into the 20s and lower 30s for highs through the 2nd half of the week. Low temps could even dip into the 10s for the first time since mid March. The good news is that there appears to be a little warming as we approach next weekend with highs nearing 40F once again.
 
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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities
 
Both the ECMWF (European model) and the GFS (American Model) keep temperatures well below average for much of the first half of November. We may sneak up into the low/mid 40s and couple of times, but temps will generally only warm into the 20s and 30s over the next couple of week.
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from November 9th to the 15th keeps much of the eastern half of the nation cooler than average and especially across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The first half of November could be quite chilly for many of us.


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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook keeps drier weather in place from California through the Central Rockies and into the Central US. Meanwhile, it could be a little more active across the International Border and also across the Gulf Coast states as we approach mid November.


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Don't Forget to "Fall Back" on Sunday!!
 
Already? Yes! Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend, which means you'll need to set your clocks back or "Fall Back" 1 hour on Sunday morning, November 3rd. So, when the clock strikes 3AM, it'll actually be 2AM!! What changes? We will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December. Where did the time change come from? 
 
"It was not started to help America's farmers out. According to timeanddate.com, daylight saving time was first used in 1908 by a few hundred Canadians in Thunder Bay, Ontario. But Germany popularized DST after it first set the clocks forward on April 30, 1916, to save coal during World War I. Daylight saving time became a national standard in 1966 when President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Uniform Time Act, which was established as a way to continue to conserve energy. The thinking was if it's light out longer, that's less time you'll need to use the lights in your house."
 
 
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Remembering October 2019...
 
October is possibly one of my favorite months and I am sad to see it go. I love the fall colors, the chilly nights and absence of those annoying mosquitoes. Don't get me wrong, I love the summer too, but Fall really is an enjoyable time in Minnesota. November is a big transition month across the Upper Midwest as colder temps and minimal daylight settles in. Bouts of cold air intrusions from our neighbors to the north often helps to whip up some wild weather close to home. Some memorable November storms includes the Edmund Fitzgerald storm on November 10th, 1975 and the Armistice Day Blizzard on November 11th & 12th, 1940. I don't see any major storms on the horizon, but it's just a matter of time before we'll be reaching for the snow shovels and white-knucking wintry commutes. Winter is on the way!
 

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Fall Colors Officially Past Peak
 
According to the MN DNR Fall Color Report, we are now officially past peak across the entire state. There may still be a few flutters of color here and there, but it starting to look pretty bare out there. Hard to imagine that those leaves won't return to tree near you until closer to Memorial Day, nearly 6.5 months from now... SIGH!
 
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4th Wettest Year on Record at MSP (So Far Through November 1st)
 
We're creeping closer to the wettest year on record at MSP, which currently stands at 40.32" set in 2016. Thanks to a little snow on Friday night, we're now sitting at 4th wettest spot with 39.13" of total precipitation for the year thus far... That's only 1.19" away from the top spot and we've still got nearly 2 months left of 2019!
 
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It's Been a Wet 2019 So Far...
 
The numbers below are quite impressive to say the least. Note that every climate reporting station listed below is above average precipitation for 2019. Incredibly, MSP is more than 11" above average precipitation so far through November 1st, while Rochester is more than 21" above average precipitation so far this year. Unreal! By the way, Rochester is already more than 7" above its wettest year ever recorded 43.94" set in 1990 and there is nearly 2 months left of 2019! 
 
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Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 28th
 
"Ninety-six percent of the corn crop was mature, 20 days behind last year and 9 days behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 22 percent, 11 days behind last year and 12 days behind the average. Corn moisture content of grain at harvest averaged 25 percent. Corn harvested for silage reached 95 percent this week, 13 days behind average. Corn condition was rated 54 percent good to excellent, a slight improvement from the previous week. Sixty-two percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 6 days behind last year and 2 weeks behind average. Dry edible beans harvested reached 76 percent this week, 30 days behind the average. Sunflowers harvested reached 20 percent this week, 20 days behind normal. Sunflower condition rated 67 percent good to excellent, declining slightly from the previous week. Potatoes harvested reached 92 percent, 15 days behind average. Sugarbeet harvest was 60 percent complete, 17 days behind normal."
 
 
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"Phenology: October 29th, 2019"
 
If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:
 
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook keeps things a little drier across Upper Midwest as we head into the 2nd week of November. There doesn't appear to be any major storm brewing close to home anytime soon.


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Too Cold For (Heavy) Snow Anytime Soon
By Paul Douglas
 
Here's an extra serving of weather-spin. "Yes, the next couple of weeks will be colder than average. But Canadian winds reduce the odds of southern moisture getting tangled into a major storm of any flavor through mid-November. We could use a break.
 
According to Mark Seeley, October was the 21st coolest and 6th wettest on record, with a statewide average of just under 4.5 inches. If we pick up another 1.18 inches of precipitation by December 31 at MSP, 2019 will be the wettest ever recorded. That seems likely at this point.
 
Every smack of Canadian air will be preceded by a swirling Alberta Clipper, some stronger than others. A shower is possible tonight, followed by Monday flurries. A stronger clipper Tuesday night may lay down a narrow stripe of slush over southern Minnesota. We'll wake up to teens by late week, but the mercury rebounds into the 40s next Saturday, maybe 50F on Sunday.
 
Don't gripe about a little slush. On November 3, 1991 the metro was digging out from 28.4 inches of snow.
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Patchy clouds. Late shower. Winds. SSW 5. High: 44.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Light rain/snow mix. Winds: W 5. Low: 32.

MONDAY: Clouds, passing flurries. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 38.

TUESDAY: Dry start. Inch or 2 of snow at night? Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 24. High: 35.

WEDNESDAY: Slick start. A chilling breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 32.

THURSDAY: Blue sky, feels like mid-December. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 17. High: 28.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, still nippy. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 15. High: 37.

SATURDAY: Intervals of sunshine, a bit milder. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 24. High: 42.
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This Day in Weather History
November 3rd

1991: The Great Halloween blizzard ends with a total of 28.4 inches of snow at the Twin Cities.

1956: Parts of central Minnesota experience record high low temperatures in the upper forties to the mid-fifties. Minneapolis, Farmington, Chaska, and Gaylord all had high temperatures of 55 degrees Fahrenheit.

1915: One person is killed by lightning during a strong thunderstorm in Chatfield, MN.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 3rd

Average High: 49F (Record: 74F set in 2008)
Average Low: 33F (Record: 8F set in 1991)

Record Rainfall: 0.53" set in 1970
Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1951
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 3rd

Sunrise: 6:54am
Sunset: 4:59pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 5 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 44 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hours & 38 minutes
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Moon Phase for November 3rd at Midnight
0.1 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

"At nightfall and early evening – November 1 and 2, 2019 – the waxing crescent moon shines in the vicinity of the planet Saturn, and the dazzling planet Jupiter sits below the moon and Saturn, fairly close to the horizon. As the moon swings by Saturn in early November 2019, it’ll pass to the south of the ringed planet for most of the globe. However, for some far-southern latitudes, the moon will actually occult (cover over) Saturn on November 2, 2019. From New Zealand, this occultation of Saturn will take place at nightfall. (By the time that we in North America see the moon and Saturn at nightfall November 2, 2019, the moon will be well to the east of Saturn.) We refer you to the worldwide map below via IOTA (International Occultation Timing Association), showing in which part of the world this occultation takes place. Only the part of the world between the solid white lines can see the occultation in a nighttime sky. The swath in between the dotted red lines depicts where the occultation happens in daytime; and the area in between the short blue lines shows where the occultation occurs at evening dusk."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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"November Tornadoes in Minnesota"
 
"Getting the right ingredients for tornadoes in Minnesota as late as November doesn't happen too often. Only seven tornadoes have been reported in Minnesota since 1930 and four of those tornadoes were reported in 2012. All but one of the November tornadoes have occurred after dark, with the ones in 2012 touching down from 11-11:30pm. Given the time of year with the extended darkness, there could be other tornadoes in the past that were missed because they were not seen. There's been two strong November tornadoes in Minnesota. The latest Minnesota tornado on record is November 16, 1931 near Maple Plain in Hennepin County. There happened to be a Weather Bureau Volunteer Observer in Maple Plain at the time (Geo W. Richards) and he described the tornado: A tornado swept 3/4 mile south and east of this station at 9:35pm moving from sw to NE and NNE. ...a few hundred feet wide and four or five miles in length. (The tornado) Demolished and damaged several barns, machine sheds and windmills. One half mile of (Great Northern Railway) telegraph poles laid flat. Estimated loss by the observer was $10,000 to $15,000. Mr. Richards noted it was 66 degrees at 9pm before the tornado and wound up with 2.33 inches of rain, an impressive amount of rain for mid-November."
 
 

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Average Tornadoes By State in November
 
According to NOAA, November is 1 of only 4 months out of the entire year (Nov., Dec., Jan., & Feb.) that does not average a tornado in the state of Minnesota. However, there have been a handful of November tornadoes in Minnesota, including 4 on Saturday, November 10th, 2012. November also holds the latest reported tornado in Minnesota, which was on November 16th, 1931.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,576 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 31st suggests that there have been a total of 1,576 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1305. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,820 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Temperatures across the nation on Sunday will still be quite chilly across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average for early November. Meanwhile, it'll still be warm along the West Coast, where temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
As we look ahead through the rest of the weekend, weather conditions look much quieter across much of the nation with the exception of the Upper midwest, where a few clippers possible across into early next week. These clippers may bring light rain/snow chances to the region, but precipitation amounts look fairly light.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
The 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, shows much lighter precipitation potential through the first week of November. There could be some heavier amounts across the Southern Plains and Great Lakes Region, but it doesn't look excessive. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest will stay somewhat active as several clippers roll out of Canada over the next several days. Light rain/snow chances will be possible into next week, but precipitation amounts will remain light.
 
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"The World's Fastest-Thinning Glacier Identified"
 
"A glacier in Patagonia that has lost half its length in 30 years may be the fastest-thinning glacier on the planet. The glacier, known as Hielo Patagónico Sur 12 (HPS-12), is perched in the Andes mountains in Chile. Researchers reporting in the journal Nature Geoscience in September found that HPS-12 has been losing thickness and retreating inland. According to their analysis of satellite data, the glacier lost 98 feet (30 meters) of ice thickness each year, on average, between 2000 and 2008, near its terminal end. At its fastest, the thinning occurred at a rate of 144 feet (44 m) per year, according to study co-author Etienne Berthier, a glaciologist at the University of Toulouse in France. The section where that thinning was recorded melted away entirely in 2018."
 
 

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"10 of the Most Scientifically Inaccurate Movies Ever"
 
"An action-packed science fiction movie could be really entertaining. Just remember there’s a reason for the “fiction” part of the word. It’s hard to forget the frightening image of a frozen New York City shown in The Day After Tomorrow. It’s even harder to understand the science in the movie because of the many inaccuracies, oversimplification, and dramatic embellishments. In the 2004 movie, global warming leads to the next ice age after a series of catastrophic weather events. One major occurrence is that the ocean current stops. Although current circulation is weak, according to a 2018 study, it’s highly unlikely for this change to happen instantly. Another issue: The National Center for Atmospheric Research also told NBC that temperatures could drop in parts of the world, but it would take decades for such a big switch. The movie embellishes how dramatic and quick the change occurs, which makes for good entertainment but not sound science. These cool, fun science facts you never learned in school are true."
 
 

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"Two Million-Year-Old Gas Bubbles Reveal The Role Of Greenhouse Gases In Earth’s Atmosphere"
 
"In a paper published in the journal Nature, a group of scientists used air trapped in the bubbles in ice as old as 2 million years to reconstruct levels of carbon-dioxide and methane in Earth's atmosphere. This is the first time scientists were able to study an ice core that old. The record-shattering 200 meters (656 ft) long ice core was recovered in 2015-16 in the Allan Hills of Antarctica. Past studies using ice cores reconstructed the fluctuations of the two important greenhouse gases carbon-dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) back to 800,000 years. The studies have shown that atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels are directly linked to Antarctic and global temperatures. In the last one million years Earth's climate fluctuated between cold glacials and warmer interglacials every 100,000 years. But between 2.8 million years and one million years, those cycles were shorter, about 40,000 years."
 
 

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"The Coming Flood: A Data Error Is Corrected, and Our Future Is Rewritten"
 
"A new study on sea level rise reveals parts of Asia and the Middle East are in far more peril than we thought. What’s happening in California right now — blackouts, wildfires, mass evacuations — should tell you everything you need to know about the urgency of the climate crisis. But the hard truth is, the flames in California are just one aspect of life on a superheated planet. Every once in a while, climate scientists publish a new study that clarifies just how dire the climate crisis really is for millions of people around the world. One such paper was published in Nature Communications this week by scientists at Climate Central. The paper corrects what was essentially a data error in previous calculations about how many people are at risk from rising seas. The results stunned even some of the world’s top climate scientists:"
 
 

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"What It’s Like to Work in a Flying Smoke Laboratory"
 
"Most scientists’ labs don’t fly. Most scientists’ labs are also not packed in the interior of a DC-8 jet doing loopy maneuvers at low altitudes. This joint NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) mission, though, is not a typical science lab. And it’s not doing typical experiments. The FIREX-AQ (Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality) mission spent the summer flying planes through smoke plumes associated with wildfires and planned agricultural burns to understand how the air we breathe—and our health—is impacted by fire. This monumental research effort will eventually lead to better forecasts and alerts to communities downwind of serious smoke pollution. The wildland-urban interface is where homes are in or near flammable vegetation. Structures here are frequently damaged in wildfires, putting people at risk of death or injury. From 1990 to 2010, the number of new houses in the wildland-urban interface in the U.S. grew by 41 percent from 30.8 million to 43.4 million. This encroachment of homes into wildlands and rising temperatures will likely not only lead to the continued loss of property and life but also exposure to smoke and the attendant health risks."
 
 

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"The science of drought is complex but the message on climate change is clear"
 
"The issue of whether Australia’s current drought is caused by climate change has been seized on by some media commentators, with debate raging over a remark from eminent scientist Andy Pitman that “there is no link between climate change and drought”. Professor Pitman has since qualified, he meant to say “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”. A highly politicised debate that tries to corner scientists will not do much to help rural communities struggling with the ongoing dry. But it is still worthwhile understanding the complexity of how climate change relates to drought.  So, why the contention? It may seem like splitting hairs to focus on single words, but the reality is drought is complex, and broad definitive statements are difficult to make. Nevertheless, aspects of drought are linked with climate change. Let us try to give you a taste of the complexity. First, it’s important to understand that drought is a manifestation of interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and land. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology uses rainfall deficiencies to identify regions that are under drought conditions. Anyone on the land doesn’t need to be reminded, but the current drought is seriously bad. These maps show the patterns of rainfall deficiency over the past 36 and 18 months, highlighting the severity and extent of what we call meteorological drought."
 
 
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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