Severe Threat Saturday
Fall Ragweed Allergies
It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 13th, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 13th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.35" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 5th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +6.76".
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook into the last full week of August suggests warmer than average temps returning to much of the naiton, including the Upper Midwest and especially across the Western US.
I can't believe that we are less than 1 week away from the MN State Fair already... good grief! The good news is that summere-like weather is here to stay for a bit longer as we slide through the 2nd half of August. In fact, for you heat lovers, it appears that we could be flirting with 90F again as we approach next week, which would likely come with an uptick in the humidity as well. According to the GFS, we may still have high temps nearing 90F within the last few days of the month! Stay tuned.
Tolerably Toasty, But Nothing Sizzling
By Paul Douglas
Nighttime temperatures are trending warmer over time, a function of more water in the air - limiting how much the atmosphere can cool off.
A wet bias that started in the spring has helped to keep us cooler: only 4 days of 90-degree heat so far in the Twin Cities. The summer average is 13 days of 90s. In 2018 we enjoyed 20 days of 90-degree heat. The National Weather Service says we've experienced 31 days of 85-degree-plus heat, compared to an average of 27 through August 13.
Deep breaths. We trip over puddles this morning, but most of the weekend looks just fine for your outdoor plans. A southerly breeze lures the mercury above 80F in the metro Saturday, before a line of T-storms rumbles into town Saturday night. The sun should come out later Sunday, with temperatures a few degrees cooler. Models suggest a dry start for the State Fair next Thursday with T-storms one week from today.
NOAA says July was the warmest, worldwide, since 1880. Turns out that 9 of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2005.
FRIDAY: Lingering showers & storms. Winds: W 5-10. High: 78.
FRIDAY NIGHT: T-shower ends early, then mostly clear. Winds: Calm. Low: 63.
SATURDAY: Some warm sun. T-storms at night. Winds: S 7-12. High: 82.
SUNDAY: Increasingly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 64 High: 78.
MONDAY: Sticky sunshine. Good and warm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.
TUESDAY: Stray T-shower, then clearing skies. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Less humid. Winds: E8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.
THURSDAY:Partly sunny for Day 1 of State Fair. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.
This Day in Weather History
1981: Chilly temperatures are felt across Minnesota. Tower reports a low of 33 degrees.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 81F (Record: 99F set in 1988)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 47F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 1.97" set in 2002
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 2 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 47 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 35 minutes
Moon Phase for August 16th at Midnight
1.8 Days After Full "Sturgeon" Moon
"7:29 a.m. CDT - This moon marks when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain are most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon — because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze — or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon."
What's in the Night Sky?
"The composite image above – from John Ashley at Glacier National Park in Montana, in 2016 – perfectly captures the feeling of standing outside as dawn is approaching, after a peak night of Perseid meteor-watching. As viewed from anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, the Perseids’ radiant point is highest at dawn, and so the meteors rain down from overhead. Unfortunately, in 2019, the moon is in the way of this shower. View the full image here. When is the peak of the Perseid meteor shower in 2019? The most meteors are most likely to fall in the predawn hours on August 13, yet under the light of a bright waxing gibbous moon. The mornings of August 11 and 12 are surely worth trying, too, especially as there will be more moon-free viewing time on these mornings … a larger window between moonset and dawn. Although the brighter Perseids will overcome the moonlight, there’s nothing like a dark sky for meteor watching. During the coming peak of the 2019 Perseid shower, the moon will be in the sky as night falls. So moonset is the key factor. Visit the Sunrise Sunset Calendars site to find out when the moon sets in your sky, remembering to check the moonrise and moonset box. In dark skies – no moon and no city lights – the Perseids have been known to usher in 50 to 60 meteors per hour, or more, at their peak. So here are the tasks before you, if you want to watch meteors in 2019. Find out the time of moonset on the morning(s) you want to watch. Find a country location, far from city lights. Plan to watch during the hours between moonset and dawn. Can’t get out of town? Then go to the darkest sky you can find near you (a beach? a park?) as late at night as you can, preferably just before dawn. Situate yourself in the shadow of a tree or building, if there are lights around. Look up, and hope for the best! Who knows … you might catch a shooting star."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
"Paula Cuevas: My family lived on Victory Street off of Courthouse (Road in Gulfport). We got on mattresses in the hallway. The weather man said the winds had reached 200 mph, the power shut off, and it was dark and scary but no one was hurt. My mother and grandmother worked at Leeloys restaurant on the beach, and we helped them look for a suitcase they had put some money in. We dug through the rubble and never found anything but dishes that I still have. I remember dead cows on the beach and the damage was so bad."
"William W. Bradford: I was on active duty with the Navy in Millington, Tennessee. I took a three-day pass to come home on Aug. 17, 1969. I was a volunteer fireman since age 15 in Waveland. For six hours, we fought fires even though the fire trucks were submerged. We use hard-suction hoses since the streets were waist-deep in salt water. We were able to save the Waveland drug store and Louise Lynch was able to live there for 36 years raising her seven daughters (she was a widow). When I returned to the hospital, the captain reamed me out since I was four days AWOL. He asked me why I did not send a telegram — I told him there was nothing standing in Waveland."
"Even Low Levels of Air Pollution Can Damage Your Lungs as Much as Smoking a Pack a Day".
"Breathing polluted air could impact a person’s health just as much as smoking a pack of cigarettes a day. That’s according to a study published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association Tuesday, which is the first of its kind to take a long-term look at the role various air pollutants play in causing emphysema. The findings show that air pollution can seriously damage the lungs.The study relied on data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study, which includes more than 15,000 heart and lung CT scans, as well as lung function tests, from 7,071 adults aged 45 to 84 in six communities throughout the U.S. from 2000 to 2018. The data is a real plus here. Not only is the sample size large; it includes people from a variety of major cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York and of different race and ethnicities."
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