"July 2019 was hottest month on record for the planet"
"August 15, 2019 - Much of the planet sweltered in unprecedented heat in July, as temperatures soared to new heights in the hottest month ever recorded. The record warmth also shrank Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to historic lows. Climate by the numbers - July 2019 - The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The previous hottest month on record was July 2016. Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005—with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. Year to date I January through July. The period from January through July produced a global temperature that was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 56.9 degrees, tying with 2017 as the second-hottest year to date on record. It was the hottest year to date for parts of North and South America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand,  the southern half of Africa, portions of the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean."

Weather Outlook Friday
Weather conditions on Friday looks fairly pleasant across across much of the state and region with temps warming into the 70s and 80s. Most locations will be close to average, with a chance of a few PM showers or isolated rumbles of thunder across the northern half of the state, but most will stay dry!

Severe Threat Saturday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL Risk of severe storms across parts of the region on Saturday. The marginal risk has been issued along and south of the I-94 corridor and mean that a few isolated storms could be a little on the strong side, but it shouldn't be too widespread.


Weather Outlook Friday to AM Sunday
The weather outlook from midday Friday to AM Sunday shows improving weather conditions on Friday, but later Saturday into early Sunday could be a little unsettled as another storm system moves through the region. You should be able to salvage a pretty decent Saturday, but showers and storms will likely move in during the evening and overnight hours, which could last through early Sunday morning.

Rainfall Potential
According to NOAA's WPC, the rainfall potential through the weekend shows heavier rain across parts of far western and northern MN, where some 1"+ tallies can't be ruled out. Folks across the Twin Cities metro maybe luck to see 0.25"-0.50" tallies.

Fall Ragweed Allergies

It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.


"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:


"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


"Phenology: August 13th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Each week we hear from listeners who have been paying attention to nature in our Talkback segment and John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report. This week John discusses things happening outside that indicate fall is coming. Yep. It's coming."

US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 13th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.


2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.35" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 5th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +6.76".

National Precipitation Since January 1st
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis nearly 14" above average and off to its wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
US Drought Monitor
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. 
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, it appears that folks in the eastern half of the nation will be wetter than average has we approach the last full week of August, while folks in the Southwest will be drier than average. 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook into the last full week of August suggests warmer than average temps returning to much of the naiton, including the Upper Midwest and especially across the Western US. 


Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

I can't believe that we are less than 1 week away from the MN State Fair already... good grief! The good news is that summere-like weather is here to stay for a bit longer as we slide through the 2nd half of August. In fact, for you heat lovers, it appears that we could be flirting with 90F again as we approach next week, which would likely come with an uptick in the humidity as well. According to the GFS, we may still have high temps nearing 90F within the last few days of the month! Stay tuned.

Warmest August Temps at MSP on Record
Here's a look at the highest temps ever recorded in the Twin Cities during the month of August. Note that there have only been four, 100F+ degree days. The most recent hot temp during the month of August was back in 2001 when we hit 99F !! The month with the most 100F+ days in the Twin Cities is July with that happening 25 times! Interestingly, we've only hit 100F+ at the MSP Aiport (31 times) in recorded history...

Tolerably Toasty, But Nothing Sizzling
By Paul Douglas

Nighttime temperatures are trending warmer over time, a function of more water in the air - limiting how much the atmosphere can cool off.

A wet bias that started in the spring has helped to keep us cooler: only 4 days of 90-degree heat so far in the Twin Cities. The summer average is 13 days of 90s. In 2018 we enjoyed 20 days of 90-degree heat. The National Weather Service says we've experienced 31 days of 85-degree-plus heat, compared to an average of 27 through August 13.

Deep breaths. We trip over puddles this morning, but most of the weekend looks just fine for your outdoor plans. A southerly breeze lures the mercury above 80F in the metro Saturday, before a line of T-storms rumbles into town Saturday night. The sun should come out later Sunday, with temperatures a few degrees cooler. Models suggest a dry start for the State Fair next Thursday with T-storms one week from today.

NOAA says July was the warmest, worldwide, since 1880. Turns out that 9 of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2005.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Lingering showers & storms. Winds: W 5-10. High: 78.

FRIDAY NIGHT: T-shower ends early, then mostly clear. Winds: Calm. Low: 63.

SATURDAY: Some warm sun. T-storms at night. Winds: S 7-12. High: 82.

SUNDAY: Increasingly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 64 High: 78.

MONDAY: Sticky sunshine. Good and warm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.

TUESDAY: Stray T-shower, then clearing skies. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 80.

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Less humid. Winds: E8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.

THURSDAY:Partly sunny for Day 1 of State Fair. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.

This Day in Weather History
August 16th

1981: Chilly temperatures are felt across Minnesota. Tower reports a low of 33 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 16th

Average High: 81F (Record: 99F set in 1988)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 47F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 1.97" set in 2002
Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 16th

Sunrise: 6:16am
Sunset: 8:18pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 2 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 47 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 35 minutes

Moon Phase for August 16th at Midnight
1.8 Days After Full "Sturgeon" Moon

"7:29 a.m. CDT - This moon marks when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain are most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon — because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze — or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon."


What's in the Night Sky?

"The composite image above – from John Ashley at Glacier National Park in Montana, in 2016 – perfectly captures the feeling of standing outside as dawn is approaching, after a peak night of Perseid meteor-watching. As viewed from anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, the Perseids’ radiant point is highest at dawn, and so the meteors rain down from overhead. Unfortunately, in 2019, the moon is in the way of this shower. View the full image here. When is the peak of the Perseid meteor shower in 2019? The most meteors are most likely to fall in the predawn hours on August 13, yet under the light of a bright waxing gibbous moon. The mornings of August 11 and 12 are surely worth trying, too, especially as there will be more moon-free viewing time on these mornings … a larger window between moonset and dawn. Although the brighter Perseids will overcome the moonlight, there’s nothing like a dark sky for meteor watching. During the coming peak of the 2019 Perseid shower, the moon will be in the sky as night falls. So moonset is the key factor. Visit the Sunrise Sunset Calendars site to find out when the moon sets in your sky, remembering to check the moonrise and moonset box. In dark skies – no moon and no city lights – the Perseids have been known to usher in 50 to 60 meteors per hour, or more, at their peak. So here are the tasks before you, if you want to watch meteors in 2019. Find out the time of moonset on the morning(s) you want to watch. Find a country location, far from city lights. Plan to watch during the hours between moonset and dawn. Can’t get out of town? Then go to the darkest sky you can find near you (a beach? a park?) as late at night as you can, preferably just before dawn. Situate yourself in the shadow of a tree or building, if there are lights around. Look up, and hope for the best! Who knows … you might catch a shooting star."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

Average Tornadoes By State in August
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in August is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 5 tornadoes, which is the 4th highest behind June (15), July (11), and May (6).
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,371 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley.

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through August 9th suggests that there have been a total of 1,371 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1128. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,692 tornadoes were reported.
Friday Weather Outlook
Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Friday, which still shows widespread heat across much of the southern tier of the nation. We've had a number of record highs over the past several days and it certainly looks like we will be dealing with more near record highs in the coming days.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the end of the week and into the weekend ahead. Note that weather conditions look a little more unsettled across parts of the Upper Midwest with scattered showers and storms possible, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, a stalled front will keep showers and storms in place across the Southeast, where heavy rain can't be ruled out either.

Heavy Ranifall Potential
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests areas of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast and Carolina Coast with localized areas of flooding possible. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Central US.
"When Will All the Ice in the Arctic Be Gone?"
"A climatologist and ice researcher examines the latest trends and data. When will all the ice in the Arctic be gone? This is a question often asked of sea-ice researchers by the media, the general public and policy makers—and no wonder. Several recent reports have detailed the accelerated loss of summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic. In addition, the observed ice loss is generally happening faster than climate models have forecasted. The question gets even more complicated because we see a large spread in climate model simulations, with ice-free September conditions already happening in 2020 in some simulations but not until well beyond 2100 in others. So determining the answer is tricky. Is this, however, the correct question to be asking in the first place? It assumes sea-ice loss is a function of time, but is that the case? In reality, Arctic sea-ice cover is not concerned with time. Ice loss is a function of natural climate variability and anthropogenic warming caused by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We monitor summer ice in September because that is the time of year with the least amount of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Historically, the Arctic Ocean was covered by ice year-round, but today this area is about half of what it used to be. Over the past three years, several publications have pinpointed warming caused by greenhouse gases as the primary driver of the long-term decline of the summer ice cover. One study for example, showed that for every metric ton of CO2 added to the atmosphere, another three square meters of September sea ice disappear. With current global emission rates of 35 to 40 billion metric tons of CO2 each year, we may get our first glimpses of ice-free Septembers in the next 20 to 25 years, when we will have added another 800 billion metric tons to the atmosphere. Yet it does not stop there. Other months of the year will become ice-free with additional atmospheric CO2. For example, with another 1,800 billion metric tons of CO2, the Arctic will likely have no ice from July through October."

"South America’s Glaciers May Have a Bigger Problem Than Climate Change"
"Massive layers of ice cover some of the continent’s rich copper deposits. Uncovering those minerals threatens to hasten their demise. Government geologist Gino Casassa steps down from the helicopter and looks around in dismay. Casassa is standing at the foot of a glacier, 4,200 meters (13,800 feet) above sea level. The sky over the Andes is a deep blue, but something is not right: It’s July—mid-winter in South America—and yet it’s mild for the time of year, above 0 degrees Centigrade. He takes off his orange ski jacket and walks on the bare rock. “This should all be covered by snow this time of year,” he says, pointing to Olivares Alfa, one of the largest glaciers in central Chile, just a few meters away. “There used to be one single glacier system covering this whole valley; now it’s pulled back so much that it’s divided into four or five smaller glaciers.”

"How weather guided Major League Baseball schedule-makers’ 2020 vision"
"Snow and rain canceled the game between the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 14, 2019. (Patrick Gorski / USA TODAY Sports) Major League Baseball will play games in 2020 where they filmed "Field of Dreams" in Iowa, and where Little Leaguers field their own World Series dreams in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Games also will take place in London, Puerto Rico and possibly Mexico. And because MLB will start its season earlier than ever in the U.S. and Canada, there also will be games on March 26 in cities where it seems more like March Madness. Places like Chicago, where the normal low temperature for the last 30 years on March 26 is technically freezing – 32 degrees. They’ll also play in Pittsburgh, where the 30-year normal low is 33 degrees, Cincinnati (37 degrees) and New York (38 degrees). “I would not want to be hitting baseballs in those places early in the year,” said Marshall Moss, AccuWeather Vice President, Forecasting and Graphic Operations. The early start is because MLB wanted the World Series over before the 2020 Presidential election on Nov. 3. Also, under the current collective bargaining agreement, in recent years MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association agreed to expand the season from 183 days to 187 days."

"They survived Hurricane Camille on the Coast 50 years ago. These are their stories."
"We asked our readers to email us their Hurricane Camille memories ahead of the 50th anniversary on Aug. 17. Here are the responses that we received."

"Paula Cuevas: My family lived on Victory Street off of Courthouse (Road in Gulfport). We got on mattresses in the hallway. The weather man said the winds had reached 200 mph, the power shut off, and it was dark and scary but no one was hurt. My mother and grandmother worked at Leeloys restaurant on the beach, and we helped them look for a suitcase they had put some money in. We dug through the rubble and never found anything but dishes that I still have. I remember dead cows on the beach and the damage was so bad."

"William W. Bradford: I was on active duty with the Navy in Millington, Tennessee. I took a three-day pass to come home on Aug. 17, 1969. I was a volunteer fireman since age 15 in Waveland. For six hours, we fought fires even though the fire trucks were submerged. We use hard-suction hoses since the streets were waist-deep in salt water. We were able to save the Waveland drug store and Louise Lynch was able to live there for 36 years raising her seven daughters (she was a widow). When I returned to the hospital, the captain reamed me out since I was four days AWOL. He asked me why I did not send a telegram — I told him there was nothing standing in Waveland."

See more from Sun Herald HERE:


"Even Low Levels of Air Pollution Can Damage Your Lungs as Much as Smoking a Pack a Day".

"Breathing polluted air could impact a person’s health just as much as smoking a pack of cigarettes a day. That’s according to a study published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association Tuesday, which is the first of its kind to take a long-term look at the role various air pollutants play in causing emphysema. The findings show that air pollution can seriously damage the lungs.The study relied on data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study, which includes more than 15,000 heart and lung CT scans, as well as lung function tests, from 7,071 adults aged 45 to 84 in six communities throughout the U.S. from 2000 to 2018. The data is a real plus here. Not only is the sample size large; it includes people from a variety of major cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York and of different race and ethnicities."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Tolerably Warm - While Much of USA Bakes in a Slow Motion Sauna

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Nice Weather Pattern Last Half of August