Thunder Risk Shifts South/East of Metro (low 90s again Monday)
July 7, 2013 — 9:29pm
Storm Risk Diminishes For The Metro Area. NWS Doppler at 9:28 shows a band of heavy T-storms from St. James to Mankato and Faribault, lighter showers east metro pushing into western Wisconsin. A Severe Storm Watch remains in effect far southwestern MN until 1 am.
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We will see cold relapses into March and April, but nothing bitter/arctic is on the horizon looking out 2-3 weeks. A mild bias continues with temperatures 10 F. above average today and Tuesday. After cooling off late in the week 50s may return next weekend. No headline-grabbing storms (you remember those) on tap, just a little rain tomorrow. Winter is winding down faster than expected...
Natural variability, El Nino kicking in - many factors may explain why it's been in the 70s and 80s out east (with tornadoes in unusual places for February). Minnesota just experienced the warmest, most prolonged February warmth on record (since 1871). A fluke? Perhaps, but what we're witnessing is consistent with a slowly warming planet. Hate to keep banging the drum, but ignoring the trends won't make them go away.
How did you cope with the (fake) Blizzard of '17? Residents of the metro are rolling their eyes, but 75 miles southeast of MSP it was a full-blown blizzard with a foot of snow, ice and high winds creating treacherous travel conditions. Which is vaguely interesting, but it didn't happen in my yard, so it doesn't matter, right? I get it: all weather, like politics, is local. The sun comes out today with less wind; temperatures moderating into the low 40s early next week.
Back on Monday I predicted "a couple of inches" for today. Then some of NOAA's models began showing crazy amounts of snow, as much as 12-15" in the immediate metro, so I ratcheted up expected snowfall amounts (you can't ignore the NAM model, right?) Turns out my initial instincts were closer to the mark. Heaviest snow bands set up south of the metro with a full-blown blizzard over southern Minnesota. Yet another example where the ECMWF (European) outperforms NOAA's models. Which doesn't make me happy, btw.