Increasingly Stormy. NWS Doppler at 3:36 PM shows a band of moderate to heavy showers and T-storms stretching from near Montevideo and Glenwood to Litchfield, St. Cloud, Little Falls, Cambridge and Moose Lake, lifting slowly northward toward the Brainerd Lakes area. We should salvage a few more hours of dry weather in the MSP metro, but the risk of showers and T-storms will increase by evening.
A Plan B Evening? NOAA's HRRR model shows moderate to heavy showers and possible T-storms pushing into the metro around the dinner hour. The risk of severe weather is small, but some of these storms may pack downpours capable of street flooding. It should be a lovely commute coming back from the lake.
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There's still a chance of 10 or 12" of snow in the metro, although the odds have dropped a bit as some of NOAA's models catch up with a southward shift in the ECWMF (European) guidance package. The Twin Cities are on the northern edge of plowable snow amounts with the one-foot-plus amounts south of the Minnesota River. Confidence levels are still low for a storm less than 18 hours away - models are all over the map. Literally. This is why meteorologists show up at the isobar some nights.
Yes, it was a bit...unnerving...to see a pouring rain almost the entire day on Monday. Any other February that would been 6-10" of snow. Not this winter. Our supernaturally mild signal lingers into Wednesday, and then winter takes a swipe at us on Friday - although latest guidance suggests the heaviest stripe of snow may set up south/east of MSP. How many times have you heard that over the years? Colder air follows the storm, but nothing Nanook or subzero. That said, it's a little early to stash your coat or parka into cold storage. We'll get smacked around a few times into March.
Widely scattered showers and rare February thunderstorms move through on Monday. Sunshine returns Tuesday and record warmth continues through Wednesday. Big changes arrive late this week with a potential snow event. Stay tuned and check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Sunday will be another extremely mild day with highs bumping up close to 60 degrees across much of southern Minnesota. Record highs will likely fall again for many locations through early next week, before big changes arrive late next week. Long range weather models are still trying to latch onto plowable snowfall across parts of the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. It's still way too early to tell what the powerful Pacific storm will do when it plows through, but stay tuned. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Enjoy the mild weather while you can. Long range forecast models are suggesting the potential of accumulating snow across parts of the Upper Midwest late next week. Talk about weather whiplash. Good grief. Stay tuned for more on that. Happy grilling. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson