It’s hard to get an exact measurement of just how much Aaron Rodgers’ broken collarbone changed the landscape of the NFC North, the NFC and really the entire NFL this season.
But one reflection of how the Packers — and Vikings — are viewed much differently now than they were just a few days ago before the injury can be seen through the change in betting markets.
Going into Week 6, CBS Sports had the Packers listed at 5 to 1 odds in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl — best in the NFC and second-best in the NFL behind the Patriots. The Packers had a 4-1 record at the time, and Rodgers was playing as well as ever. The Vikings, meanwhile, were sitting at 40 to 1 odds — one of five teams tied for the 12th strongest odds, so basically right in the middle of the pack.
Fast-forward one week, one game and one broken bone later: ESPN has updated Super Bowl odds listed for every team. They might not be from the exact same sports book, but most books have pretty similar odds. ESPN runs its odds from the Westgate Super Book, and here’s how they look:
The Packers are now at 30 to 1 odds — 12th among NFL teams. And the Vikings have jumped up to 16 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl — seventh among NFL teams.
Some of that is surely tied to the way the standings changed when the Vikings defeated the Packers 23-10 in the game during which Rodgers was hurt early on. Both teams are now 4-2, with the Vikings claiming the early upper hand with a head-to-head win. Detroit also lost, pushing the Lions down to 3-3.
But the Rodgers factor has to make up a significant share of the drop.
Online odds, by the way, are even more dramatic. Per this item released Tuesday, the Packers are at 75 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl now that Rodgers is out and just 5 to 1 odds of even making the playoffs. The Vikings are 22 to 1 on that site, ninth-best among NFL teams.
That site, by the way, lists 33 to 1 odds that Rodgers plays at all again this season — deeming it only a little more likely than Colin Kaepernick signing with the Packers (38 to 1).