MODERATE RISK of Severe Weather Wednesday
"There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow, (Wednesday) in the red area highlighted in the graphic below. Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are expected across northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday. A substantial severe wind threat should also persist Wednesday night across the remainder of southern Lower Michigan and into western Ohio. We will be updating the severe weather outlook for Wednesday early this afternoon. Check out http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for the most up-to-date info."
Severe Threat for Chicgo, IL Wednesday
"We are closely monitoring the potential for numerous to widepsread severe thunderstorms, as well as torrential rainfall and flooding on Wednesday. The combination of an unseasonably strong storm system and a warm and humid air mass could yield significant severe weather somewhere over the region. All severe hazards are possible. Small scale details not yet known will affect the locations and magnitude of impacts. At this point the potential for more widespread storms is during the later afternoon and evening. The bottom line is, pay very close attention to the latest forecast updates and practice your severe weather safety plans to be ready if severe weather strikes your area on Wednesday. Visitweather.gov/Chicago for the most up to date forecast information. Mobile Weather Including Radar: http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/NWSwidget"
Recap: Stormy Sunday Night
Take a look at the storms that exploded PM Sunday across central and northeast MN. These storms were responsible for extremely large hail and even tornadoes.
Several Storm Reports Sunday
There were a number of large hail reports (up to grapefruit size (4") near Nisswa) and even tornado reports. The National Weather Service out of Duluth conducted storm surveys on Monday and this is what they found:
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 503 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR JUNE 19TH 2016 EVENT... .TORNADO NEAR JACOBSON, MN Rating: EF-1 - Preliminary Path length /Statute/: 8 miles Path width /Maximum/: A quarter mile Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start date: June 19, 2016 Start time: 6:49 PM CDT Start location: 2 miles northeast Jacobson End date: June 19, 2016 End time: 6:59 PM CDT End location: 2 miles east southeast of Wawina .WIND DAMAGE CROW WING COUNTY...POSSIBLE TORNADO. An NWS Storm Survey is still ongoing. Damage is widespread and varied in nature across southern Cass, Crow Wing, and southern Aitkin county. Information will be updated as it becomes available. EF Rating table EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ NWS DLH
Severe Storms Sunday
Thanks to @Bil_Doms for this picture from near Cold Spring in Stearns county from PM Sunday.
HOT HOT HOT!
Thanks to Rich Koivisto for this picture out of Bullhead City, AZ where the temperature
Excessive Heat Fades Slightly in the Southwest
This impressive dome of hot weather will continue through the midweek time frame, but will fade slightly from what we had over the weekend and earlier this week.
Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings
The National Weather Service has issued a number of excessive heat headlines across the Southwest, which includes major cities like San Diego, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma.
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY... * AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING EL CENTRO... AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING YUMA. * TEMPERATURE...HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 112 TO 117 DEGREES WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF. * IMPACTS...HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THOSE DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OUTDOORS...OR THOSE WITH HEALTH CONDITIONS THAT DO NOT HAVE ADEQUATE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING. IF UNTREATED...SOME ILLNESS EVENTS COULD BE FATAL.
Potential High Temperatures & Stats
- Phoenix has only had a high of 120 or higher three times in their recorded history (since 1895).
- The last time Phoenix hit 120 or higher was back on July 28, 1995 when the thermometer hit 121.
- Whether the temperature touches 120 or not, record highs are likely. The current record high each day between Saturday and Tuesday is 115.
- Only seven times in Tucson recorded history (since 1894) has the city seen a high of 114 or higher – the last time occurring on July 28, 1995 when it also reached 114.
- The all-time record in Tucson history is 117 set back on June 26, 1990.
- Record highs: 112 Tuesday.
Las Vegas, NV
- Las Vegas is no stranger this type of higher heat in the forecast, reaching a temperature of 115 or higher 55 times since 1937. The last time Las Vegas saw a high of 115 or higher was back on July 2, 2013.
- The warmest high ever in Las Vegas history is 117 reached three times in their history. The most recent occurrence was back on June 30, 2013.
- Our forecast has Las Vegas reaching 114 on Tuesday.
- Record high: 111 Tuesday.
Los Angeles, CA
- Even Los Angeles will get in on the heat this week into early next week, reaching at least the mid 90s through Tuesday.
(Stats courtesy: DJ Kayser @DKayserWX)
Here's a look at rainfall from AM June 13th to AM June 18th. Note that there were several locations that saw 1" to 2"+ amounts with some spots even seeing 3" to 4"+. Here's an excerpt from Mark Seeley's Weather Talk on the heavy rains last week.
All of the water vapor in the atmosphere served as fuel for thunderstorms, which became widespread across the state over June 11-14. Over those 4 days many areas received from 2-4 inches of rain. A few highly localized amounts were even greater causing some short-lived flooding concerns. You can read more about the distribution of these storms at the Minnesota StateClimatology Office web site.
The strong thunderstorms on June 14th produced tornadoes in Pipestone, Traverse, Big Stone, Le Sueur, and Blue Earth Counties. All were relatively short-lived and produced relatively little damage. Very strong winds up to 60mph were also reported from portions of Nobles, Jackson, Cottonwood, Brown, and Watonwan Counties.
As a result of the rainy week, many climate stations are already reporting total monthly rainfall that exceeds the June normal. This continues a recent climate trend for June, as 15 of the most recent Junes have been normal or wetter than normal on a statewide basis.
Sunny Tuesday gives way to a stormy Wednesday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Whether you like it or not, daylight hours will begin dwindling today. We are post summer solstice, so it'll be a steady decline in the daylight category over the next 6 months. However, our average high and low temperature will continue to warm over the next 4 weeks due to a process known as "Seasonal Lag".
It is similar to the daily occurrence when daytime highs typically occur after peak solar radiation (midday) and overnight lows typically occur just after sunrise. Because our atmosphere is a fluid, it takes a little longer to warm and cool, so these "lags" not only happen on a daily basis, but also on a seasonal basis.
Temperatures over the next few days will hover around average with spotty shower and thunderstorm chances returning late tonight into Wednesday. The extended forecast suggests another bubble of heat arriving this weekend with some spots nearing 90 degrees.
By the way, Sunday's high of 93 degrees tied the warmest high this year! It was the 4th 90+ of the year and was also the 6th tornado day of 2016.
TUESDAY: Beautiful! Low humidity and bright sun. Spotty thunder chance develops overnight. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 82
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a shower or storm late. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 62.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds, lingering t-storm risk. Winds: NE 5-15. High: 80
THURSDAY: Lingering AM shower, sunnier by PM. Fresh breeze. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 78.
FRIDAY:Breezy and warmer. Stray PM rumble. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
SATURDAY: Sticky with scattered storms possible. Winds:WSW 10-20. Wake-up: 69. High: 86.
SUNDAY: Unsettled. Late day T-showers. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 69. High: 86.
MONDAY: Cooler breeze. Cloudy. Spotty T-showers. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 79.
This Day in Weather History
1989: Fairmont has a wind gust of 76 mph during a severe thunderstorm.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 81F (Record: 95F set in 1910)
Average Low: 61F (Record: 39F set in 1992)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1second
*Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~1second
Moon Phase for June 21st at Midnight
1.8 Days After Full (Strawberry) Moon
June 20, 6:03 a.m. CDT — The Full Strawberry Moon. Known to every Algonquin tribe by that name. Europeans called it the Rose Moon. - Courtesy Space.com HERE:
Temperatures look to remain near average over the next several days, but the forecast into the weekend suggests another warm bubble arriving with a brief stint of higher humidity values.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
High temperatures on Tuesday will be a little warmer than what we saw on Monday with highs in the lower 80s in southern MN. Although it'll be a littel warmer, dewpoints won't be too bad, so it'll be another comfortable day with more sunshine.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
Winds will continue out of the west on Tuesday and still be a bit on the breezy side across parts of northeastern MN and into Wisconsin.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
No worries on Tuesday. Weather conditions look mostly dry with plenty of sunshine across the region. There is a chance of spotty showers and storms arriving late Tuesday night across parts of southern MN.
Here's the simulated radar through midday Thursday, which shows much quieter conditions through most of Tuesday.However, unsettled weather looks to return as we head into the late PM Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
National Weather Outlook
A cold front that swept through the Ohio Valley on Monday will stall out in that area on Tuesday keeping the shower and thunderstorm threat in those areas during the day. A developing storm system will ignite more storms in the region again on Wednesday with chances of severe storms.
Severe Threat Tuesday
...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH AMPLIFYING SYNOPTIC TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SERN CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NERN STATES. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THEN BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE FARTHER WEST THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...SUMMARY... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WIND THREAT SHOULD ALSO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO WESTERN OHIO. ...SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LEADING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AND WILL INTENSIFY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...FAST-MOVING SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE RISK AREA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AND PERSISTING INTO THU MORNING TOWARD THE OH RIVER. ...SRN MN...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI // MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WED MORNING ROUGHLY FROM SERN MN/ERN IA ACROSS IL AND INTO SRN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY 850 MB JET. WIND PROFILES AT THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR TORNADO THREAT...AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD.
...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA ON THU...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING WEST ACROSS MISSOURI...KANSAS...AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... A SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LAKE ERIE AREA THU MORNING ACROSS PA AND OFF THE COAST BY 00Z WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. ALOFT...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL EXIST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING AREAS OF STORMS AND ACCOMPANYING DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE STRONGER FLOW. INTENSE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A 50-60 KT WLY 850 MB JET...AND THIS WILL HELP RENEW INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE AREAS OF ONGOING STORMS. TO THE W...A WEAK LEE-SFC TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS WITH SELY WINDS HELPING TO TRANSPORT MAINLY 50S F DEWPOINTS NWWD RESULTING IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
...DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE D5 PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON FRI/D4...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D5. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MATURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT/D5. STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI/D4 WILL INTERACT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SAT/D5...THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO IA AND WI. THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF FAVORABLE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...SFC TROUGH...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY. THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE ON SUN/D6...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT PERHAPS FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER SHEAR WILL COEXIST. BEYOND D6...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DECREASING SEVERE CHANCES.
Here's the 5 day rainfall forecast through the end of the week, which shows heavy rainfall potential from parts of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley with numerous shower and thunderstorm chances through the week ahead.
"Waterspout at Pontchartrain Beach"
NEW ORLEANS – A group of locals on Pontchartrain Beach had a few scary moments Sunday when they got caught in the path of an apparent waterspout.
Geremy Stovall, who took the footage on his cell phone, sent the video in to WWL-TV.
He said it happened on the south shore near the University of New Orleans just before noon.
Although Stovall was directly in the path of the spout, he said no one was injured.
Although waterspouts are generally weaker than tornados, they can be dangerous to boaters because of high winds.See the full video from WWLTV.com HERE:
Average Tornadoes in June
While May, on average, sees the most tornadoes across the nation, June is typically the most active tornado month is Minnesota, averaging 18. Interestingly, The yearly average tornado count is 45.
June Tornadoes in Minnesota
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 19 tornadoes in Minnesota so far this month, most of which happened on Tuesday, June 20th.
"U.K. Vote on Whether to Leave Europe Imperils Global Climate"
"When British voters go to the polls Thursday to decide whether or not to withdraw from the European Union they may also be determining the fate of their country's climate legacy and its burgeoning green technology industry. That's because if the United Kingdom exits the European Union following next week's referendum it will go from being a dominant voice and second-largest economy in the 28-nation compact to being an outsider. As such, it will have to negotiate with Brussels for access to the European Union's consumer and energy markets—a situation that opponents say will give the United Kingdom less power over its own destiny than it currently has. "As Obama told them very clearly, you're going to be a midsized economy in the middle of the Atlantic, and you're not going to have the leverage you had as the 28 when you're a one," said Michelle Egan of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "And I don't think they realize that the other 27 have no reason to be nice in the negotiation.""
If the United Kingdom exits the European Union following next week's referendum it will go from being a dominant voice and second-largest economy in the 28-nation compact to being an outsider. Credit: Michael Tubi/Corbis via Getty Images
"Shattered records show climate change is an emergency today, scientists warn"
"Unprecedented temperature levels mean more heatwaves, flooding, wildfires and hurricanes as experts say global warming is here and affecting us now May was the 13th month in a row to break temperature records according tofigures published this week that are the latest in 2016’s string of incredible climate records which scientists have described as a bombshell and an emergency. The series of smashed global records, particularly the extraordinary heat in February and March, has provoked a stunned reaction from climate scientists, who are warning that climate change has reached unprecedented levels and is no longer only a threat for the future. Alongside the soaring temperatures, other records have tumbled around the world, from vanishing Arctic sea ice to a searing drought in India and the vast bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef. The UK has experienced record flooding that has devastated communities across the country and scientists predict that the flash floods seen by parts of the country in recent days will increase in future."
Flooding in Straiton, Scotland, in December. Scientists say it will increase in future. Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
"12,000 Years Ago, Humans and Climate Change Made a Deadly Team"
"Climate change, habitat destruction, extinctions — the Earth has seen it all before, thousands of years ago. And humans may have been partly to blame for many of those changes in nature, too. A new study published Friday in Science Advances shows that the arrival of humans in Patagonia, combined with a changing climate, led to the extinction of many species of megafauna about 12,000 years ago in the southern portion of what is now South America. The research offers a significant moment in the natural history of the continent: a definitive date of the mass extinction of megafauna — large or giant animals, like mammoths and giant sloths — in this part of the world. It also suggests a potential relationship between threatened species and climate change in our own time. The authors of the study from the University of Adelaide in Australia, with help from scientists from South America and elsewhere, found that the presence of humans in Patagonia was not enough to drive extinction, but the one-two punch of humans and a warmer climate led to the collapse of many species."
"An illustration from the 19th century of a giant ground sloth, which was among the many megafaunal species that went extinct in Patagonia during a rapid warming phase that followed the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Researchers found that the combination of human encroachment with the warming contributed to the extinctions. CreditScience Source"
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX