Happy First Day of Fall!
"Happy autumn, Northern Hemisphere. Happy spring, Southern Hemisphere. The September equinox will arrives early in the morning on September 23 (3:50 a.m. EDT, 2:50 a.m. CDT, 1:50 a.m. MDT and 12:50 a.m. PDT). Translate UTC to your time zone. At the equinox, days and nights will be approximately equal in length. For us in the Northern Hemisphere, the sun is rising later now, and nightfall comes sooner. We’re enjoying the cooler days of almost-autumn. What is an equinox? The earliest humans spent more time outside than we do. They used the sky as both a clock and a calendar. They could easily see that the sun’s path across the sky, the length of daylight, and the location of the sunrise and sunset all shift in a regular way throughout the year. Our ancestors built the first observatories to track the sun’s progress. One example is at Machu Picchu in Peru, where the Intihuatana stone, shown below, has been shown to be a precise indicator of the date of the two equinoxes and other significant celestial periods. The word Intihuatana, by the way, literally means for tying the sun."

"US bird numbers drop by nearly 3 billion in 48 years"
"In the last five decades US bird numbers have plummeted by 29%. As populations dwindle, so do the chances of species survival. America’s birds have taken wing. Ornithologists calculate that in the past 48 years, total US bird numbers, reckoned together with Canada’s, have fallen drastically. There are now 2.9 billion birds fewer haunting North America’s marshes, forests, prairies, deserts and snows than there were in 1970. That is, more than one in four has flown away, perhaps forever. Birds are one of the better observed species. Enthusiastic amateurs and trained professionals have been carefully keeping note of bird numbers and behaviour for a century or more. A flock of avian scientists reports in the journal Science that they looked at numbers for 529 species of bird in the continental US and Canada to find that while around 100 native species had shown a small increase, a total of 419 native migratory species had experienced dramatic losses. Shorebirds are experiencing consistent and steep population losses. Sparrows, warblers, blackbirds and finches are down in numbers. Swallows, swifts, nightjars and other insectivores are in decline, almost certainly because insect populations are also in trouble."

Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - September 16th
"Wet and cool weather allowed for only 1.6 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 15, 2019, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. There was limited harvest activity for corn silage, potatoes, sugarbeets and dry beans when farmers were able to get into the fields. Topsoil moisture condition was rated 0 percent very short, 3 percent short, 55 percent adequate and 42 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture condition was rated 0 percent very short, 3 percent short, 60 percent adequate and 37 percent surplus. Ninety-five percent of the corn crop reached the dough stage or beyond, remaining behind last year and the 5-year average. Corn dented or beyond was 59 percent, 16 days behind last year and 2 weeks behind normal. Corn harvested for silage reached 10 percent this week, 12 days behind normal. Corn condition was rated 52 percent good to excellent, down slightly from the previous week. Fortyseven percent of soybeans were turning color or beyond, 10 days behind last year and 8 days behind average. Fourteen percent of soybeans have begun dropping leaves, 11 days behind last year and 8 days behind average. Soybean condition dropped slightly to 55 percent good to excellent."

Monday Weather Outlook
Weather conditions on Monday will be very nice for the first day of Fall. In fact, high temps will be running nearly +5F to +10F above average for the end of September. We will also have quite a bit more sunshine across the region than what we had over the weekend, so enjoy!
Comfy Dewpoints Monday
Dewpoints across the region on Monday will be very comfortable as they hover around 50F. Note that dewpoint readings were in the lower 70s on Friday and Saturday, so we will heavy nearly half as much water in the atmosphere than what we had just a few days ago.
Weather Outlook AM Monday to AM Wednesday
The weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Wednesday shows dry conditions and mild temps as we start the week. Our next best chance of showers and a few rumbles of thunder arrive late Tuesday into early Wednesday. In the wake of this storm system, winds will pick up, so expect fairly breezy conditions with a few leftover spits of rain midweek.

Precipitation Potential Through Next Weekend
According to NOAA's WPC, there will be some fairly decent rainfall potential as 2 different storm systems blow through the region over the next 5 to 7 days. In fact, some spots could see an additional 1" to 2"+ by the end of the month. Stay tuned!
Fall Colors Starting to Pop
Here's a great picture from the park staff at Itasca State Park located in the northern half of the state. This Maple Tree has 'popped' along with a few other trees in the area. The latest report from the area suggests that fall foliage is at 50% to 75% color now. 

MN DNR Fall Color Update
The latest update from the MN DNR suggests fall colors well on their way across the state. Much of the northern half of the state is in the 25% to 50% range with a few pockets of 50% to 75% color. It seems like colors are coming a little sooner this year, doesn't it? At any rate, fall colors will continue to pop as we head through the next several weeks. Enjoy!
Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it!


Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th, which is less than 1 month from now! The earliest was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.


Soggy September So Far...

It certainly has been a wet start to September. In fact, many locations around the state and around the region are running several inches above average. Green Bay, WI has had more than 7" of rain so far this month, which is by far the wettest start to any September on record! If Green Bay didn't see anymore rain this month, it would be the 2nd wettest September on record. Rochester, MN is off to its 7th wettest start to any September on record.
3rd Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport
It certainly has been a wet go of things across the Upper Midwest this year. In fact, the Twin Cities has had 34.46" of precipitation this year, which is the 3rd wettest start to any year on record (through September 22nd). The top spot through that date belongs to 1892, when 35.09" of precipitation fell through that date. By the way, if we didn't see anymore precipitation through the rest of the year, this would be the 22nd wettest year on record at the MSP Airport.

Fall Ragweed Allergies

AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers have been having some issues lately, but the good news is that pollen levels have been a little lower as of late. According to Pollen.com, our pollen levels will be holding in the low-medium range over the next several days.


"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:


"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


"Phenology: September 10th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Every week John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report.  He's full of clues and changing hues indicating that fall is happening in this week's report.  Take a listen!"

US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 17th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question!


2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is more than 10" above average so far this year and at its 3rd wettest start on record. Unbelieveably, Rochester is already at its wettest year on record and it's only mid September!


Atlantic Outlook

Things are still quite active in the Atlantic Basin with Jerry and Karen still ongoing and another wave that have a high probability of tropical formation within the next 5 days.

Tracking Jerry
According to NOAA's NHC, Jerry looks to track north toward Bermuda over the coming days and could eventually said right over the island late Tuesday. The good news is that Jerry is currently forecast to stay at tropical storm status and should be moving faster, so impacts won't be as severe.

Tracking Karen

Here's the latest track for Karen, which shows it moving over Hispanola as we head through early part of the week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued in yellow, where tropical storm conditions maybe possible along with heavy rain through midweek.

Points of Tropical Origin: September 21st - 30th
The first few of weeks of September are typically some of the most active times for tropical activity, which ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
Still Active in the Eastern Pacific
According to NOAA's NHC, there are 2 named storms ongoing with Kiko and Mario. Mario is the most concering storm as is will continue to bring areas of heavy rain to parts of northern Mexico and into the Southwestern US.

 National Precipitation Since January 1st
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis is nearly 14" above average and off to its 3rd wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
US Drought Monitor
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. 
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook through the end of September and into early October suggests above average precipitation across parts of the northern tier of the nation, especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the southeastern US and into the northeast will likely be drier than average.
Risk of Heavy Precipitation Across the Upper Midwest
According to NOAA's CPC, there is a moderate risk of heavy precipitation across parts of the Upper Midwest from Saturday, September 28th to Tuesday, October 1st. I know it's a long way out, but stay tuned!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month and early October suggests a pretty tight temperature contrast setting up across the Front Range of the Rockies. This could be a little concerning as several rounds of showers and storms maybe possible, some of which could be strong to severe along with areas of heavy rain. With that said, temps in the eastern half of the country will be warmer than average. 


Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of September and into the early part of October. Note that temps will be quite a bit cooler as we head through the weeks ahead, but we should have some 'warmer' days yet and certainly warmer than average weather considering our average high now is in the 60s.


Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September. 


Sunny start to Fall. More Rain This Week.
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

My youngest son recently told me, "Dad, you don't make sense. You said Fall already started, but now you're telling me it's officially Fall?" Yes, my kids accuse me a lot at home. Like why I made different noodles in the mac n cheese and why am I always staring at the radar. Sorry, I'm addicted to weather.

Meteorological Fall arrived on September 1st, which marked the date when the warmest 3 months on average for the northern hemisphere (June, July & August) were behind us. Astronomical Fall or the Autumnal Equinox is the date when the sun's most direct rays shine over the equator, which was at 2:50AM this morning.

Farmers will be thankful for today's sunny, dry weather. According to the USDA, the corn and soybean crop is still nearly 1 to 2 weeks behind average this year. A cool, wet spring was largely to blame. An early freeze this fall would be devastating. Thankfully, the temp outlook remains above average through early October!

Dry and mild will be with us through tomorrow, but more rain and rumbles arrive midweek. Happy Fall!

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny first day of Fall. Winds: WSW 5-10. High: 73.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: WSW 5. Low: 54.

TUESDAY: Dry start. Late day thunder threat. Winds:WSW 8-13. High: 77.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Lingering shower or PM rumble. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 67.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. T-storm risk late. Winds: SSE 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, scattered storms south. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 70.

SATURDAY: Slight chance of t-storms. Winds: ENE 10-15. Wake-up: 55. High: 68.

SUNDAY: More clouds. Stray shower possible. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 60. High: 75.

This Day in Weather History
September 23rd

1995: 0.2 inches of snow falls in the St. Cloud area.

1985: Early snow falls over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (0.4) is recorded at MSP Airport, mostly during the afternoon.

1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 23rd

Average High: 69F (Record: 73F set in 2017)
Average Low: 49F (Record: 30F set in 1983)

Record Rainfall: 1.98" set in 2010
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1928

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 23rd

Sunrise: 7:01am
Sunset: 7:09pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 8 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 hours & 29 minutes

Moon Phase for September 23rd at Midnight
2.2 Days After Last Quarter Moon

See more from Space.com HERE:


What's in the Night Sky?

"The illustration at top by Tau’olunga via Wikimedia Commons shows the day arc of the sun, every hour – during the equinoxes – as seen on the celestial dome – from the equator. Also showing twilight suns down to -18° altitude. Note the sun at the zenith at noon and that the tree’s shadow is cast straight down. That is – as seen from the equator on the day of an equinox – a tree stands in the center of its own shadow. The 2019 autumnal equinox for the Northern Hemisphere (spring equinox for the Southern Hemisphere) happens on Monday, September 23, at 7:50 UTC. At this special moment – the instant of the September equinox – the sun is at zenith, or straight overhead, as seen from Earth’s equator. That’s the meaning of an equinox. The September equinox sun crosses the sky’s equator, going from north to south."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

Average Tornadoes By State in September
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in September is quite a bit  across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 2 tornadoes, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). 
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,506 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through September 21st suggests that there have been a total of 1,506 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1219. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,784 tornadoes were reported.
Monday Weather Outlook
High Temps on Monday will still be quite warm across much of the nation and especially for those in the eastern US. Note that temps from Atlanta, GA to Portland, ME could be nearly +10F to +15F above average. 
Widespread Record Warmth in the Southeast Next Week
Here are the expected high temperatures across the southeast next Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Note the 'circled' numbers, those are potential record highs for those dates and there are quite a few of them! According to NOAA's CPC, the extended outlook really keeps us quite warm across the eastern half fo the nation through the end of the month and into the early part of October. Stay tuned!

National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Note the cool front sweeping along and east of the Mississippi River Valley with widespread showers and storms moving east with it. Heavy rain looks to move into parts of the Southwest and interestingly, this moisture will be associated with the remnants of Tropical Storms Lorena and eventually Mario.

Heavy Ranifall Potential
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests heavy rain across the Central US along a cool front that will slowly sweep through Central US through early next week. Also note the heavy rain that looks to fall across northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest as remnants from Lorena and Mario move through. Much needed precipitation will also continue in the Pacific Northwest. 
"Three Extraordinary Coincidences In Nature That Have Shaped Human Experience"
"Life is full of coincidences, from chance meetings to life-changing events. Nature, too, is full of fascinating coincidences. If running into an old friend in a busy city seems remarkable, then coincidences on a universal or atomic scale can seem mind-blowing. Sometimes such seeming coincidences have a perfectly rational explanation, but sometimes they are no more than quirks of how the universe has evolved. Here are three of the most fascinating coincidences in nature, which have shaped the human experience. 1. The Sun and the Moon appear the same size from Earth During a total solar eclipse, the Moon lines up exactly with the Sun, obscuring it completely. All we can see is the Sun’s faint, wispy atmosphere, known as the corona. This is a bit strange, when you think about it, since the two celestial bodies are massively different in size and distance from us. The Moon’s diameter is around 3,474 km. The Sun’s is 1,400,000 km, about 400 times bigger. By a coincidence the Moon is about 384,403 km from the earth and the Sun 150,000,000 km, about 400 times further away. So, from an observer’s perspective, the size and distance cancel each other out and they appear to us about the same size in the sky."

"Australia prepares for ‘Day Zero’ – the day the water runs out"
"It’s not unlike a storyline from a dystopian film about the taps running dry in cities around the world. Except that it may soon be a reality for around a dozen towns in Australia – and scientists say it’s a warning for the rest of the world. Day Zero is pending in at least a dozen Australian country towns stretching from the northern state of Queensland – known for its sprawling banana plantations and tropical heatwaves – to the state of New South Wales, whose capital Sydney is the country’s most populous city. Successive droughts and the extra water needed to fight intense bushfires have caused an unprecedented shortage, with these regions now facing the prospect of the taps running out within a matter of months. Day Zero, as it’s called, would mark the start of water rationing and the day residential taps are turned off – literally – with large numbers of households and businesses having to go to local collection sites to fetch water."

"Tropical Storm Imelda Brings Houston Area A Second 1,000-Year Flood In Just Two Years"
"It was little more than 24 months ago that the remnants of Hurricane Harvey dumped a record amount of rain on the Houston area - up to five feet - creating perhaps the worst flooding in American history. It was an event of biblical proportions. The kind that, in previous decades, would be expected only once every millennium. But Harvey was soon followed by equally catastrophic storms  named Irma, Maria, Florence, Dorian and now Imelda is disintegrating over southeast Texas, leaving behind a little-too-familiar deluge as a parting gift. Rainfall totals in Texas are approaching three-and-a-half feet as of midday Thursday. That makes Imelda the fifth-wettest storm to strike the contiguous 48 United States, two years after Harvey topped the list. And with more than three inches of rain currently falling per hour at Houston’s airport, the storm is not over yet. It’s often said that weather and climate are different, which is true. But weather events like Imelda and the rain it is currently dumping on Texas so soon after Harvey begin to demonstrate an increasingly clear change in the climate that enables these extreme events."

"The First Hurricane Relief Drone Was Ready to Fly—Then Dorian Hit"
"A drone company on Great Abaco, in the Bahamas, was prepared to deliver emergency supplies if the hurricane struck. Dorian had other plans. As Hurricane Dorian whiplashed the Bahamas on September 1 with 185-mph winds, a drone with lifesaving potential was positioned at the Marsh Harbour airport on the island of Great Abaco. Designed to carry temperature-sensitive medicine, it could deliver urgent supplies such as anesthetics, insulin, and wound care materials when roads, airports, and even waterways left people stranded. Unfortunately, the winds demolished the cargo hangar and all its contents. “It’s a case of being too highly optimized,” says Andrew Schroeder, vice president of research and analysis for Direct Relief, a global humanitarian aid organization that had been testing the drone for disaster relief. “We were exactly right [in the location], and actually that turns out to be the problem.” This autonomous flyer had carried a container with sensors that continuously monitor temperature, called a Softbox Skypod, in its test flights. If it had survived the storm, it could have been the first drone to engage in hurricane relief. The drone was manufactured and owned by Volans-i, a San Francisco-based drone company that had partnered with Bahamian startup Fli Drone."

"This Is Why We Don't Shoot Earth's Garbage Into The Sun"
"Imagine our planet as it was for the first 4.55 billion years of its existence. Fires, volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, asteroid strikes, hurricanes and many other natural disasters were ubiquitous, as was biological activity throughout our entire measured history. Most of the environmental changes that occurred were gradual and isolated; only in a few instances — often correlated with mass extinctions — were the changes global, immediate, and catastrophic. But with the arrival of human beings, Earth's natural environment has another element to contend with: the changes wrought upon it by our species. For tens of thousands of years, the largest wars were merely regional skermishes; the largest problems with waste led only to isolated disease outbreaks. But our numbers and technological capabilities have grown, and with it, a waste management problem. You might think a great solution would be to send our worst garbage into the Sun, but we'll never make it happen. Here's why."

"New, Dire Climate Models Say the Planet Warms Faster Than We Thought"
"Two new models say the Earth is even more sensitive to emissions than we thought, and humanity has to work even harder to meet Paris agreement targets. Two new climate models predict that global warming due to climate change will be faster and more severe than previously thought, meaning humanity will have to work even harder to curb its emissions and meet the warming goals set out in the Paris agreement. If we continue to use fossil fuels to drive rapid economic growth, the new models say, mean global temperature could rise as much as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is 1 degree higher than previous estimates. In terms of climate change, that’s a lot. “It is difficult to imagine the impacts of that level of warming,” Olivier Boucher, head of the Climate Modeling Center at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace in Paris, said in an email. “But there would be dramatic for many natural and human systems. As a comparison, the difference between an ice age and interglacial period is 5 [degrees Celsius].” These models came out of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, part of the World Climate Research Program, and were unveiled at a press conference on Tuesday. The models will be factored in to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports in 2021. Currently, the Paris Agreement—which is based on older climate models—wants to cap warming at 2 degrees Celsius."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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