Severe Reports From Saturday Night

Severe storms rolled across portions of western and southern Minnesota Saturday Night, causing some damage along the way. There were reports of 1.75" diameter hail northeast of Ortonville and a brief funnel cloud northwest of Hoffman. Meanwhile, a wind gust of 60 mph was reported in Pipestone, with a 59 mph gust near Dovray and a 56 mph gust at both the Worthington and Jackson airports. There were several reports of tree damage across portions of southern Minnesota.


Rainfall Saturday Into Sunday

These storms also brought heavy rain to portions of the state. The top 24 hour total at an airport location was in Tracey, where 3.64" fell. Marshall, Glencoe, Eden Prairie, and Hutchinson all saw over 2" of rain fall. Overall, 1.74" of rain fell at the MSP airport, all of which occurred Sunday before 6 AM.


Second Wettest Start To The Year At MSP

Saturday Night's rain brings the yearly total up to 29.64" in the Twin Cities - 9.14" above average. It's been quite a wet year across the southern half of Minnesota, with both St. Cloud (+8.12) and Rochester (+14.27") quite above average in the rainfall department. Things quickly change as you head into northern Minnesota, where some areas, including Duluth, are below average.

With the rain this weekend, we are now at the second wettest start to the year on record (through August 18th) in the Twin Cities. The wettest year-to-date on record was back in 1892 when 31.75" of rain fell between January 1st and August 18th. The overall wettest year on record was back in 2016 when 40.32" of rain fell.


Severe Threat Monday

A few strong storms will be possible later today and tonight across portions of western Minnesota. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place, mainly for large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, mainly in far southwestern Minnesota.


State Fair Begins Thursday!

The Great Minnesota Get-Together begins this Thursday, and the weather looks wonderful if you're heading out for the opening day. Temperatures will start off in the mid -50s if you're one of the first into the Fair early in the morning, with highs topping off in the mid-70s. Mainly sunny skies are expected with fairly calm winds and dew points in the low to mid-50s.


Snow In Glacier National Park

I'm just going to leave this here as a reminder that winter isn't that far away. It snowed in Glacier National Park Friday Night. Of course, there wasn't too much of the white stuff, but enough for some slight accumulation in some areas. Enjoy every last bit of summer and autumn that there is...


Did We Just Get Cheated Out of August?
By Paul Douglas

Excuse me. Over here! Mother Nature, you dear, reckless giver of life and occasional home-wrecker, we seem to have skipped a month. I distinctly remember going to sleep in July and now I've woken up in September. I'd like my month back, please. And my summer back, too.

The sloppy frontal boundary that squeezed out 3 inches of rain on parts of the state Saturday night looked and felt like something out of June, rather than August. Minnesota has been perched on the northern periphery of a heat bubble, with frequent frontal passages – each sneeze of Canadian air setting off a new display of atmospheric fireworks and heavy rain. Unusual for August.

Warm sun today gives way to a slight thunder risk tonight ahead of a cool front that will bring refreshing air into Minnesota by midweek, with 70s south - daytime highs in the 60s up north. Thursday looks spectacular for Day 1 of the State Fair, but more showers prowl the state next weekend, followed by an even cooler cool front next week. Hey August, hurry back eh?


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 56. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
TUESDAY: Less sun, passing T-shower possible. Wake up 64. High 81. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, less humid. Wake up 58. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Perfect Day 1 of Minnesota State Fair. Wake up 55. High 74. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, T-storms arrive late. Wake up 57. High 79. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Unsettled, few pop-up T-showers. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, risk of a T-storm. Wake up 64. High 80. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
August 19th

2007: Record 24-hour maximum rainfall of 15.10 inches set in Hokah, MN (Houston county). This 24-hour total contributed to the record monthly maximum rainfall of 23.86 inches that was set in Hokah during August of 2007.

1980: Strong winds at Belle Plaine severely damage five planes.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 19th

Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1976)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 39F set in 1967)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 3.19" set in 1997)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 19th

Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 53 minutes and 43 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 50 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 13.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 28th (13 hours, 27 minutes, and 29 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/After 6:30 AM: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8:00 PM: August 27th (7:59 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

A fairly nice Monday is expected across the state with a mix of sun and clouds and highs climbing into the 70s and low 80s. As we head into late Monday and Monday Night a few showers and storms may be possible in northwestern portions of the state.

Highs will generally be around average on Monday across the state, running up to five degrees above average across northern portions. The average high for August 19th in the Twin Cities is 80F.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the next five, with highs climbing into the mid-80s in the Twin Cities. Dew points will also rise quickly, reaching the low 70s by the midday hours. The good news is that a cold front moves through later Tuesday with Canadian high pressure behind it, bringing with it more comfortable temperatures and dew point values for the middle and end of the week.

Here's a look at those expected dew point and heat index values Tuesday. Dew points across the southern half of the state will climb into the low 70s for at least a few hours during the midday and afternoon hours, and that will help bump up heat index values. Portions of southern Minnesota could see heat index values touch 90F on Tuesday. Meanwhile, you can see that more comfortable air start to move into northwestern Minnesota, with dew points topping off only in the 50s during the day for areas like Roseau and Grand Forks.

As we look at the extended temperature outlook for the Twin Cities, we do see at least a slight warm-up as we head through next weekend and into the last full week of August with highs in the 80s. Some model runs of the GFS have hinted that we could see a 90-degree high sometime in the timeframe of the 26th-28th, but continue to go back and forth between that potential and highs in the mid-80s.

Meanwhile, as we head into the first couple weeks of September, the Climate Prediction Center is showing the potential of cooler than average temperatures across the upper Midwest, including here in Minnesota. What this would indicate is the potential of highs in the upper 60s to 70s. The average high by the end of this time period (September 13th) in the Twin Cities is 73F.

It could be a farily dry week in the Twin Cities, with the best chances of rain occurring Tuesday and then again late Friday Night into Saturday. A better chance of rain could move in later next weekend.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front moving toward the Northeast and Ohio Valley will help spark off some showers and storms. Heavy rain will continue to be possible along the Gulf Coast as Gulf moisture streams into the Southeast. A few showers and storms will be possible across portions of the Northern Plains by the evening hours with a new frontal system moving south. Highs are expected to be above average from the Rockies toward the East Coast, with some record highs possible.

Several record highs could be broken Monday from the Front Range into the Texas Panhandle, and into portions of the Northeast as well. This includes locations like Denver, Amarillo, Washington D.C., and Philadelphia.

Across the southern United States Monday, when you factor in the humidity it will certainly be a hot day with afternoon heat index values climbing into the 100s.

Turning to rainfall, the heaviest through Tuesday evening will be across portions of the Gulf Coast, where areas from southeast Louisana to the Florida Panhandle could see at least 2-4" of rain. Most of the western United States will see dry weather.


Rising Great Lakes water levels benefit some, but cost others

More from Marketplace: "Lake Superior’s gales are legendary. But the high water levels, LeBeau said, have made these recent storms even more destructive. The city has estimated damage from the three storms, in less than two years’ time, at nearly $30 million. It’s a similar story elsewhere around the Great Lakes, where beaches have disappeared, docks are submerged, and lakeshore is eroding. But for the shipping industry the higher water levels have been a boon. That’s because deeper water allows ships to carry more cargo. “A great example of this is a vessel like the Edwin H. Gott, which can carry an additional 267 tons of iron ore per extra inch of draft,” said Jayson Hron, spokesperson for the Duluth Seaway Port Authority. “That’s something like $26,000 worth of extra ore per inch, so if you multiply that by 2 or 3 inches of water level, and then multiply it by more than 30 trips over the course of a shipping season, it adds up to some significant benefits,” he said."

Scientists bid farewell to the first Icelandic glacier lost to climate change. If more melt, it can be disastrous

More from CNN: "Scientists say they are bidding farewell to Okjökull, the first Icelandic glacier lost to climate change, in a funeral of sorts. Researchers will gather Sunday in Borgarfjörður, Iceland, to memorialize Okjökull, known as Ok for short, after it lost its status as a glacier in 2014. The inscription, titled "A letter to the future," on the monument paints a bleak picture. "Ok is the first Icelandic glacier to lose its status as a glacier. In the next 200 years, all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path. This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and know what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it," the plaque reads in English and Icelandic."

Hail Storm Kills Thousands Of Birds West Of Billings

More from MTPR: "More than 11,000 waterfowl and wetland birds were killed by hail Sunday at the Big Lake Wildlife Management Area west of Billings. Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks biologists who visited the lake this week picked up dead ducks and shorebirds with broken wings, smashed skulls, internal damage and other injuries consistent with massive blunt-force trauma. They estimated that 11,000 to 13,000 birds were killed. A neighboring landowner reported baseball-sized hail that broke windows in the area. Local weather reports said Molt and Rapelje suffered two-inch hail propelled by a 70-mile-per-hour wind."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Damp Start Sunday, Then Clearing

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One of the Cooler State Fairs In Recent Years?