"Flightradar24 Data Regarding Lion Air Flight JT610"
"Lion Air flight JT610 departed Jakarta for Pangkal Pinang at 06:20 local time (23:20 UTC) on 29 October and lost contact shortly after departure. Flightradar24 received the last ADS-B message from the aircraft at 23:31:56 UTC at an altitude of 425 feet AMSL. The flight was operated by Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration PK-LQP. The aircraft was delivered to Lion Air on 13 August 2018, just over two months ago and entered service with the airline on 18 August. It is powered by two CFM LEAP-1B engines."
Typhoon Yutu
Typhoon Yutu continues in the Western Pacific, last week became one of the strongest storms on earth of 2018 with winds of 180mph and gusts to 220mph. Last week, it made landfall in the U.S. territories and the tiny islands of Tinian and Saipan, where they sustained severe damage. As of early Monday, Yutu still had sustained winds of 105mph and gusts to near 130mph.
Tracking Yutu
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to track Yutu west toward eastern Asia. Yutu is expected to make landfall with the northern part of the Philippines early this week as either a strong category 1 or weaker category 2 storm. Regardless, strong winds and heavy rain will be expected there. Yutu will then curve north later this week and make a close pass by eastern China this weekend.
Tuesday Weather Outlook
Tuesday will be another somewhat mild day (for late late October) across the state with readings warming into the 40s and 50s. Temps will generally be running around 5F above average with the exception of the far northeastern part of the state, where readings will be a little cooler than average thanks to a little lingering precipitation early in the day.
Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through 7PM Thursday suggests mainly dry conditions across the state with the exception of a little light lingerin precip in the Arrowhead early Tuesday. Trick-or-treaters will be happy to know that costumes will stay dry this year as well! The next best chance of moisture will arrives Saturday, some of which could be in the form of a rain/snow mix.
Saturday Night Clipper
Light precipitation across the northern part of the state on Monday will linger in the Arrowhead Tuesday with tallies that could approach a couple to maybe a few tenths of an inch. Again, note that much of the rest of the state should stay dry through the end of the week.
Weekend Rain/Snow Mix??
The extended models are still suggesting chances of a rain/snow mix by the weekend as another quick moving clipper rolls through the state. It's hard to say exactly where and what type of precipitation will fall this far out, but this weather could have impacts on outdoor activities this weekend. Also note that this weekend is the MN Deer Hunting Opener, so hunters in the woods across far northern MN could get a little tracking snow, we'll see!

Temperature Outlook
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -3.5F below average this October will stay at or slightly above average now through the couple of days of the month. However, the extended forecast shows temps dipping quite a bit as we head into the end of next week and the first weekend of November. High temps then could struggle to get to 40F - BRR!

"Why you should mulch leaves, not rake them"

"It’s the annual fall dilemma. The leaves that have fallen on the lawn need to be removed, but there are more on the trees. Should you rake them up now or wait until the limbs are bare? Neither! Bag the rake, not the leaves. Instead of raking leaves, stuffing them into lawn bags and hauling the bags to the curb, mow them with a mulching mower — a lawnmower with a specially designed high deck and a mulching blade that chops leaves into fragments as tiny as confetti. As the shredded leaves decompose, they will act as a natural fertilizer and weed control agent. For those who insist on a spotless lawn year-round and might be concerned about what the neighbors will think of the brown leaf bits the mower leaves behind, don’t worry. The shredded leaves will filter through the grass and disappear from sight. In northern lawns that go dormant or in grasses such as Bermuda or zoysia that turn a dormant brown color in winter, the shredded leaves may even blend right in. Better yet, if you continue this practice each fall, in a few years mulching can help you have a luscious spring and summer lawn free of dandelions and crabgrass that will be the envy of people up and down the street."

See more from Mother Nature Network HERE:

Chances of a White Halloween?

Hey, it's Halloween next Wednesday and thanks to @Climatologist49 on Twitter for the image below, which shows the historical probability of a white Halloween.

White Halloweens in Minneapolis

Here's a look at snowfall data on Halloween for Minneapolis and since 1899 (119 years of data), there has only been snow reported on 20 days and only 6 days with measureable snow (0.1" or more). Of course, who could forget the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. A record 8.2" of snow fell on Halloween day itself, but the storm dumped a total of 28.4" at the MSP Airport - UNREAL!

2018 MN Deer Hunting Opener - Saturday, November 3rd
The MN Deer Hunting Opener is quickly approaching and folks heading to the woods next weekend will be keeping a close on the weather. Early forecasts suggest chilly temps with a slight chance of light rain/snow Friday into Saturday. Interestingly last year, folks in northern MN tallied upwards of 6" of snow on the Opener!!
Minnesota's Firearm Deer Hunting Opener Weather - "Minnesota's 2018 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 3. The normal high temperature for November 3 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s to low 30's. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 3 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. There has been significant snowfall on the Firearm Deer Hunting Opener in recent memory. 6.0 inches of snow fell at International Falls on the Deer Hunting Opener in 2017. .3 inches was reported at St. Cloud, but there was a snow cover of 4 inches. The 2017 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener was cold and wintry with 30's to low 40's statewide."

Sunnier Tuesday Afternoon - Unsettled Weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Weather-wise, we're entering a very fascinating time of year across the Upper Midwest. In fact, it's one of my favorite times to gaze at weather maps – The Gales of November!

As we transition from one season to the next, dwindling daylight hours allows colder air to build near the pole. When waves of these cold blobs are dislodged from the Arctic, big storms or Mid-Latitude Cyclones can develop. One such storm sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975. The Armistice Day Blizzard on November 11th is another example of a strong storm that was responsible for the demise of many duck hunters that were caught off-guard by heavy snow and freezing temps.

I don't see any big storms brewing (yet) and certainly nothing like the Halloween Blizzard of 1991, but don't let your guard down anytime soon!

After a few early morning showers, the sun pops out later Tuesday with near average temps continuing. A Witch Watch has been issued for Halloween; expect an upgrade to a werewolf warning tomorrow night. Trick or Treat!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Early AM shower, PM sun. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 54.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cool. Winds: W 5. Low: 38.

WEDNESDAY: No tricks this year. Dry Halloween. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 53.

THURSDAY: More clouds. Cooler breeze. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High: 48.

FRIDAY: Light rain/snow mix possible. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 32. High: 44.

SATURDAY: Cloudy & cool. Rain/snow mix late. Winds: ESE 10-20. Wake-up: 32. High: 43.

SUNDAY: Light rain/snow mix. Minor accumulations northWinds: ESE 5-15. Wake-up: 34. High: 45.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Few showers. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 36. High: 46.

This Day in Weather History
October 30th

1951: An early snow storm drops as much as 8 inches of snowfall in north central Minnesota. Mora had 8 inches, while Long Prairie received 6 inches. Glenwood, Little Falls, Morris, and New London all had 5 inches of new snow. Meanwhile, surrounding areas received a couple of inches.

1936: An intense dust storm causes damage in Central Minnesota. Heavy wind damage is reported in Stearns County.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 30th

Average High: 51F (Record: 83F set in 1950)
Average Low: 35F (Record: 10F set in 1925)

Record Rainfall: 1.26" set in 1971
Record Snowfall: 0.8" set in 1951

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 30th

Sunrise: 7:48am
Sunset: 6:04pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 15 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 49 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 5 hours and 16 Minutes

Moon Phase for October 28th at Midnight
0.4 Days Before Last Quarter


What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"Every Halloween – and a few days before and after – the brilliant star Arcturus, brightest star in Bootes the Herdsman, sets at the same time and on the same spot on the west-northwest horizon as the summer sun. This star rises at the same time and at the same place on the east-northeast horizon as the summer sun. That’s why – every year at this time – you can consider Arcturus as a ghost of the summer sun. At mid-northern latitudes, Arcturus now sets about 2 hours after sunset and rises about 2 hours before sunrise. If you live as far north as Barrow, Alaska, the star Arcturus shines all night long now, mimicking the midnight sun of summer. If you live in the Southern Hemisphere, you can’t see Arcturus right now. South of the equator, Arcturus sets at the same time and on the same place on the horizon as the winter sun. In other words, Arcturus sets before the sun and rises after the sun at southerly latitudes at this time of year. If you are in the Northern Hemisphere, try watching this star in the October evening chill. You can envision the absent summer sun radiating its extra hours of sunlight. Not till after dark does this star set, an echo of long summer afternoons. Similarly, Arcturus rises in the east before dawn, a phantom reminder of early morning daybreaks."

3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central and Southern Appalachians, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Northeast, and the Great Lakes, Thu, Nov 1.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Fri, Nov 2.
3.) Heavy rain across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Sun, Nov 1-4.
4.) Heavy snow across portions of the Tetons, Thu-Mon, Nov 1-5.
5.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.
6.) High winds across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Thu, Nov 1.
7.) High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Sun, Nov 1-4.
8.) High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the southern Alaska Panhandle, Sat, Nov 3.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Gulf Coast and up the East Coast, Tue-Thu, Nov 6-8.
10.) Severe Drought across the Rockies, the Northeast, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, California, the Alaska Panhandle, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.


Hurricane Oscar in the Atlantic

Oscar became the 16th named storm and the 8th hurricane Atlantic Hurricane season over the weekend. The good news is that this storm will remain a "Fish Storm" and stay over the open waters of the central and north-central Atlantic over the coming days. However, Oscar will continue to add to the Accumulated Cyclone Energy this season, which is already running at the most active on record for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific combined.

Tracking Oscar

Here's a look at the official NHC track for Oscar, which shows the storm now starting to drift northeast into the northcentral Atlantic as we head through the week ahead.


Tropical Climatology

This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop during the end of October. Keep in mind that September 10th is the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so even though we are passed the typical peak, things can still be fairly active.

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Dry Skies Continue. Rain/Snow Mix Possible Friday

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Werewolf Warning - No Halloween Blizzard This Year