Sunday Severe Threat

"Two waves of thunderstorms are expected today. The first will move across Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. The second wave will develop across southern Minnesota around noon, and spread rapidly east-northeast during the afternoon into Wisconsin. There is an enhanced severe weather threat for east central and southeast Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin today."

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S HAS SPREAD NWD INTO SERN/EAST CENTRAL MN...WRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WI AND LOWER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH LOCAL AREAS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE BAND MAY FOCUS NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LARGE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Here's the latest National Weather Service Severe Weather Decision Support Service Link:

Simulated Radar

This simulated radar below from AM Saturday to AM Monday. You can see the spotty shower and thunderstorm acitivity that gave way to some severe weather, including tornadoes on Saturday afternoon/evening. Today will remain unsettled with a round of showers and storms in the morning, then possibly another line of strong to severe storms by the afternoon/evening. Monday will be windy and MUCH cooler post front with highs in the 40s and 50s across the state; there's even a snow chance across the northern part of the state during the day Monday... YUCK!

Saturday Severe Recap

Thanks to Marie Reszel for this picture out of Montevideo. Storms across parts of western Minnesota on Saturday afternoon/evening produced a number of tornadoes. The first tornadoes in the state of Minnesota since September 19th, 2014

Minnesota Tornadoes on Saturday

According to the SPC, there were at least 9 PRELIMINARY tornado reports across western Minnesota on Saturday afternoon/early evening. Some damage was reported Kimball, De Graff and Watson. 

This is what the satellite picture like as the line of strong to severe thunderstorms was moving across western MN. One of the cells at this time was producing a tornado NW of Wilmar.


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Sunday Severe?

By Todd Nelson

May can be a fickle month for us in Minnesota. Get this, Minneapolis has seen as much as 3 inches of snow back in 1946 to a 106 degree high back on May 31, 1934. We've also endured several severe weather outbreaks, including tornadoes. The most memorable of which may be the May 6th, 1965 tornado outbreak when 6 tornadoes touched down across the state, 4 of which were rated F4s.

A storm system swirling through the Upper Midwest this weekend has kept weather conditions a little on the unsettled side. Mild and somewhat muggy weather will continue with chances of showers and storms today. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as potential risk areas for strong to severe thunderstorm development later today. Keep up to date with weather information as storms rumble through.

We get a bit of a reality check tomorrow on the backside of the storm system as temperatures plummet into the 40s and 50s across the state. A cold wind and a few wind whipped snowflakes across northern Minnesota will make it feel more like early Spring tomorrow. Here's to hoping the erratic May weather levels out by Memorial Weekend. Cheers!

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SATURDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and storms. Some possibly strong with heavy rain. Low: 65. Winds: SSE 10-20.

SUNDAY: Still mild and breezy. Scattered showers and storms develop, some strong to severe by PM. High: 78. Winds: SE 15-30

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms ending with a few lingering showers overnight. Low: 53. Winds: S 10-20.

MONDAY: Breezy and much cooler. Lingering clouds and light showers with light snow up north early. High: 54. Winds: WSW 15-25

TUESDAY: Chilly breeze. More PM sun. Wake-up: 39. High: 56.

WEDNESDAY: Still cool for May. Wake-up: 42. High: 64.

THURSDAY: Bright sun. 70s return. Wake-up: 47. High: 70.

FRIDAY: Late day shower possible in southern MN. Wake-up: 51. High: 71.

SATURDAY: Unsettled. Spotty PM thundershower. Wake-up: 53. High: 70.

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This Day in Weather History
May 17th

1915: Old Man Winters last hurrah with 5 inches of snow along Lake Superior.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 17th

Average High: 70F (Record: 93F set in 1987)
Average Low: 49F (Record: 31F set in 1915)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 17th

Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:37pm
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Moon Phase for May 17th at Midnight
0.1 Days Since New Moon


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Warm weather conditions continue through the weekend with highs in the 70s across much of the state Sunday. Note the significant cool down by Monday as highs crash into the 50s. We make some gradual progress through the week, but it'll be a little slow to warm. Looking ahead to Memorial Weekend, we'll be a little closer to average, but perhaps still a little cooler than we should be in May.


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Sunday Weather Outlook

Sunday will be another mild and somewhat muggy day with highs across much of the state warming into the 70s with dewpoints lingering into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Unsettled weather continues on Sunday with spotty showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. Winds will still be breezy out of the south with winds around 10-20mph.

Rainfall Potential

The rainfall forecast from AM Sunday to PM Tuesday looks quite impressive across northwestern MN with as much as 2", while areas across southeastern Minnesota aren't expected to get as much. The Twin Cities could see around an additional 0.5" or so through early next week.

Snowfall Potential?

I hate to say it, but a few locations across far northern MN could be talking snowfall into early this week. While it doesn't look like much, scattered snow showers could be a rude awakening for folks there. Keep in mind that the best chance of any accumulations would be in North Dakota.


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7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's HPC, there could be an additional 2" to nearly 5" of rain across parts of the Central U.S. through next Saturday. It's interesting to note that some of the heaviest precipitation (near 6") could fall near the Arklatex region where radar estimates of rainfall in those areas suggests nearly 6" to 12" has already fallen over the last 7 to 10 days.


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National Weather Outlook

The storm system responsible for all the thunderstorm activity in the central part of the country on Saturday will still play a role in the severe thunderstorm threat across the middle part of the country again Sunday. Interestingly, temperatures on the northwest side of the storm system could be cold enough for a little snow across parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.


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Increasing Instability: CAPE 4pm Sunday

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is a weather term used to describe how much potential energy is available for thunderstorm development. Note that by Sunday afternoon, there is a plume of higher CAPE values that look to be across parts of central Minnesota and Wisconsin. This could be enough energy for some strong to severe storms if everything comes together right. Stay up to date with latest forecasts and weather conditions on Sunday.

Severe Threat Sunday

...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO ARKANSAS. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS TEXAS AND POSSIBLY LOUISIANA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ...SYNOPSIS... AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NNEWD AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW OVER NEB IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE NRN MN BORDER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW OVER ERN SD WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES NNEWD INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MN ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT. THE NRN PART OF A COLD FRONT ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL BEGIN ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION FROM MN ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IS DISSIPATING...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE BAND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES EWD/SEWD FROM NRN AR ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S HAS SPREAD NWD INTO SERN/EAST CENTRAL MN...WRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WI AND LOWER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH LOCAL AREAS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONE BAND MAY FOCUS NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LARGE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...AR SWWD INTO PARTS OF TX... DESPITE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING NWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION...THE ONGOING BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM NRN AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX MAY PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THIS MORNING AS NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PROPAGATING COMPOSITE COLD POOL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /ESPECIALLY OVER AR/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAINLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THE AR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TX BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO LA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN/NRN AR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS..


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Happy 110th Birthday Las Vegas

In honor of Las Vegas' birthday on May 15th, the National Weather Service out of Las Vegas put together on how the weather has been observed over the years.

Check it out HERE:


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Weird and Wacky News...

Take a look at this story out of Fairbanks, AK. Sounds like the start of a bad joke!

A beaver walks into an Alaska hardware store ... FAIRBANKS—Sometimes driftwood just isn't enough, one beaver decided when it took an impromptu trip to Lowe's early Friday morning. The beaver wandered into the parking lot of the Lowe's construction and home improvement store on the Johansen Expressway at about 7 a.m., triggering the automatic doors and strolling inside. Once inside the store, the beaver made its way to the plumbing department, where store employees attempted to provide assistance to the wild animal."

Read more from NewsMiner.com HERE:

(Photo courtesy: Angelesa Ward via Newsminer.com)


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Enhanced Severe T-storm Risk Again Today - Isolated Tornadoes Possible