Hockey Puck Hail in Bismarck, ND Friday Morning

You know you're a hockey fan when... you measure hail with a hockey puck!!! LOL!! Thanks to @sboe88 from Bismarck, ND for the hailf report early Friday morning. Sarah did say that a window panel was blown out by the extremely large hail - YIKES!

Severe Storms Early Friday Morning

Here's the radar loop from early Friday morning that showed the strong to severe storms across North Dakota. These storms were responsible for a number of large hail and damaging wind reports from late Thursday night into AM Friday.

North Dakota Storm Reports

Here are some of the impressive storm reports from PM Thursday to AM Friday. Note that the largest hail report was 3.25" out of Bismarck, ND! However, there were several hail reports golf ball size (1.75") or larger!


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Upcoming Severe Threats for Minnesota?

"There will be a good deal of sunshine across the region this weekend along with warming temperatures. However, there will be a few chances for thunderstorms. The first is this afternoon and evening across western MN, across central and southern MN Saturday morning and then across the entire area late Sunday afternoon and night. A few storms may be severe this afternoon and evening as well as on Sunday. Dew points will become quite oppressive with heat indices on Sunday from 95 to 100 degrees. Any thunderstorms today through Sunday will be capable of very heavy rainfall."

(Image courtesy: NWS Twin Cities)

Severe Threat Friday

...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

Simulated Radar Friday

Scattered showers and storms across North Dakota and NW Minnesota from early Friday look to diminish through midday, however, another round of storms looks to develop PM Friday across eastern South Dakota and western MN. Some of these storms could be a bit on the strong side, but could also produce heavy rainfall. The good news is that most models have been keeping this love west of the Twin Cities metro!

Severe Threat Saturday

 ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY. 

Severe Threat Sunday

 ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN NEAR A SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. LATER IN THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL MN BY 00Z. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST E OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE N OF THE AREA. STILL...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STRONG MEAN WIND FIELDS AND THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE LINE OF CELLS AND/OR A LINEAR MODE WITH WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.


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Snow in June?

A storm system moving into the Western U.S. brought cold enough temperatures to in the high elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada range for some minor snow accumulations. Take a look at some of the webcams that the National Weather Service of of Sacramento, CA posted early Thursday.

Excessive Heat Building in the Southwest

While snow was falling in the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada Range on Thursday morning, dangerous heat is getting ready to build across the Desert Southwest by the weekend and into early next week. The image below show the heat bubble near its peak on Monday.

Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings

The National Weather Service has issued a number of excessive heat watches and warnings across the Southwest, which includes major cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma.

Potential High Temperatures & Stats

Phoenix, AZ

- Highs will approach 120 on both Sunday and Monday. Phoenix has only had a high of 120 or higher three times in their recorded history (since 1895).
- The last time Phoenix hit 120 or higher was back on July 28, 1995 when the thermometer hit 121.
- Whether the temperature touches 120 or not, record highs are likely. The current record high each day between Saturday and Tuesday is 115.

Tucson, AZ

- We are calling for a forecast high of 114 on Sunday. Only seven times in Tucson recorded history (since 1894) has the city seen a high of 114 or higher – the last time occurring on July 28, 1995 when it also reached 114.
- The all-time record in Tucson history is 117 set back on June 26, 1990.
- Record highs over the weekend and into next week are 113 Saturday, 112 Sunday, 110 Monday and 112 Tuesday.

Las Vegas, NV

- Las Vegas is no stranger this type of higher heat in the forecast, reaching a temperature of 115 or higher 55 times since 1937. The last time Las Vegas saw a high of 115 or higher was back on July 2, 2013.
- The warmest high ever in Las Vegas history is 117 reached three times in their history. The most recent occurrence was back on June 30, 2013.
- Our forecast has Las Vegas reaching 114 both Monday and Tuesday next week.
- Record highs this weekend into next week are 115 Saturday, 114 Sunday, 113 Monday and 111 Tuesday.

Los Angeles, CA

- Even Los Angeles will get in on the heat this week into early next week, reaching at least the mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday.
- We could even see highs in downtown Los Angeles break the triple-digit mark next Monday. Down toward LAX, highs Monday will be near 90, which could break the record for the day of 86.

(Image and stats courtesy: DJ Kayser @DKayserWX)

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Summer heat surges in for Father's Day weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I slapped my first mosquito yesterday. Yep. Recent heavy rains and warm temperatures have created ideal conditions for swarms of skeeters to attack. Keep in mind that those pesky buggers will likely be more prevalent around dusk and dawn, so if you're plans take you outdoors during those times, have the bug spray ready. Happy swatting!

Friday is the first day that our average high in Minneapolis has reached 80 degrees in 2016 and it will be at 80 degrees or warmer through August 23rd. Summer heat and humidity looks to surge back into the Upper Midwest through the weekend with highs approaching 90 degrees by Father's Day. Scattered storms and heavy pockets of rain across northern Minnesota on Saturday will slide south and become a late day threat for the rest of us on Sunday.

Keep in mind that a near full strawberry moon will be visible over the weekend. It will be officially full on Monday, which coincides with the Summer Solstice!

Sure it'll be hot here, but Los Angeles, CA could hit 100 degrees Monday. No thanks

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Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Warmer, more humid. Spotty thunder west. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 85

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: SE 5. Low: 66.

SATURDAY: Feels like summer. More PM storms N. Winds: S 5-10. High: 86

SUNDAY: Sticky Father's Day. Heavy storms late. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 68. High: 90

MONDAY: Lingering AM T-storms. Not as muggy. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 82

TUESDAY: Bright sun, refreshing breeze. Winds: WNW 5-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Comfy. Stray afternoon T-shower? Winds: WSW 5. Wake-up: 59. High: 78

THURSDAY: A touch warmer. Afternoon rumble? Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 81
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This Day in Weather History
June 17th

2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurs with 48 tornadoes across the state. This outbreak would set the stage for a record breaking tornado year in Minnesota that finished with 113 tornadoes, the most of any state in the US that year. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest daily number since July 5, 1978.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

(Tornado near Buffalo, Wright County. Photo credit: Dave Wierstad)

(Storm reports from June 17th, 2010)

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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 17th

Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 42F set in 1960)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 17th

Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:02pm

*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~16seconds
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice (December 22nd): ~6hours and 50mins
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Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
2.2 Days Until Full (Strawberry) Moon

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Extended Outlook

More Heat on the way? Here's the extended forecast depicted from the ECMWF model, which suggests another hot front arriving on Father's Day Sunday with high temperatures getting to near 90F! However, it doesn't appear to last too long as highs much of next week look to settle into the low/mid 80s.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a slight chance of below normal temperatures from June 22nd - 26th across the Great Lakes. As we head into next week, temperatures will like be closer to where we should be at this time of the year. Side note; the Summer Solstice is Monday, June 20th!

 
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Friday Weather Outlook

High temperatures across the state on Friday will be a little warmer than they were on Thursday with a few more 80s showing up across the southern half of the state. The other thing to note is that dewpoint values will start to increase as we head into the the weekend, so it'll start feeling quite a bit more muggy over the coming days.

Friday Weather Outlook

An area of low pressure approaching from the west will allow winds to pick up out of the east/southeast on Friday, however, wind speeds will stay fairly light. 

Friday Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook around midday Friday, which suggests a little light shower/thunderstorm activity across the eastern Dakotas and parts of western MN. it appears that this unsettled weather will try to advance east, but it will run into drier, more stable air and tend to fall apart, so not much eastward advancement is expected. Most of eastern MN and WI should see more sun during the day Friday, while a few lingering showers and storms will be found across parts of western MN.

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar through midday Sunday suggests strong storms across the Dakotas from early Friday moving into western MN through the day. While a few lingering clouds and rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out on Friday, most of the heavy rain looks to dissipate before moving any deeper into Minnesota. Another round of showers and storms is expected late Saturday across NW MN and again on Sunday.

 
 
 
Rainfall Potential

Rainfall potential through 7pm Sunday suggests heavier rainfall across western and northern Minnesota . This heavier rainfall potential will be associated with scattered showers and storms that will be on and off through the weekend. 


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National Weather Outlook

A storm system moving into the Western U.S. that brought snow to parts of the northern Sierra Nevada range will wash out a bit through early weekend. As this happens, dangerous heat begins develop in the Southwest through early next week. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms will be possible across parts of the Midwest through the early weekend.

Severe Threat Friday

 ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... THE PRIMARY UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF AR/MS EASTWARD TO THE GA/SC COAST. LARGE CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F AND FULL DAYTIME HEATING YIELDING CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT A VARIETY OF AREAS WHERE CLUSTERS OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MIGHT FORM...BUT THERE IS INSUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY TO DEFINE AN AREA OF GREATER RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF ND...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /REFERENCE WW 264/. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM ND SOUTHWARD INTO NEB/KS...WHERE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. DESPITE THE HIGH INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK. ISOLATED INTENSE AND SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

Severe Threat Saturday

 ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL INCREASE LIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CNTRL MT DURING THE DAY AND WILL MOVE INTO ND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MT INTO ND. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A NWD-FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER MN DURING THE DAY IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ELY SFC WINDS AROUND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL OVER LA AND SRN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Severe Threat Sunday

 ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH HAIL AND WIND EXPECTED. ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM ND INTO ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST S OF THE RIDGE.

 

5 Day Rainfall Potential

According to NOAA'S WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests heavier pockets of rain across parts of the northern tier of the nation through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeastern U.S.. Keep in mind that with thunderstorm activity, some locations could see 1" to 2"+ through the end of the weekend.

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"Climate Impacts From Farming Are Getting Worse"
 
As signs emerge that the global energy sector is beginning to rein in what once had been unbridled levels of climate-changing pollution, new United Nations figures show pollution from farming is continuing to get worse. Greenhouse gases released from the growing of crops and livestock directly increased by a little more than 1 percent in 2014, compared with a year prior, the newly updated data shows. Burning fossil fuels for energy grew by about half that amount during the same period, research published in December showed, with further reductions anticipated for 2015. That’s seen as a key first step toward achieving the vast pollution reductions needed to start to stabilize the climate. “Historically, it’s been the opposite — fossil fuel emissions have grown exponentially and agricultural emissions have grown linearly,” said Francesco Tubiello, a team leader in the statistics division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, which compiles the data.
 
 
("Dairy cows are a major source of methane pollution, which heats the atmosphere faster than carbon dioxide." Credit: John Upton)

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"The Mosaic-Tailed Rat From The Great Barrier Reef Is Now Extinct Due To Climate Change"
 
"The first mammal wiped out from climate change is an Australian rat that lived on a tiny island on the Great Barrier Reef. Bramble Cay is so small, it's not technically an island, but a cay, at 340m by 150m which is a 20-minute walk from end to end or about the size of three Melbourne Cricket Grounds. In a report released in June 2016 by the Queensland Government and the University of Queensland, researchers found the last anecdotal sighting of the rat was from fishermen in the area in 2009. The report found climate change-exacerbated sea level rise seriously impacted the island, which was only 3m above sea level at its highest point, and the presumption is that the cay was temporarily submerged, killing the rats."
 
 
(DAVID CARTER / DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE PROTECTION)

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"Global climate experiencing 'fundamental change' says UN"
 
The global climate is undergoing "fundamental change" with abnormal weather conditions becoming the "new normal", the United Nations warned on Tuesday, as the month of May was declared the hottest on record.  The northern hemisphere also experienced the hottest spring on record, including heavy rain across much of Europe, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a Geneva-based branch of the UN. Meanwhile, the Arctic ice cap began melting unusually early. By March, the ice was disappearing at rates not normally seen until July. The average temperature in May was 0.95 degrees centigrade higher than the average recorded between 1951 and 1980, while the world had now seen 370 consecutive months of warm or warmer than average temperatures, the agency said. “The state of the climate so far this year gives us much cause for alarm,” said Dr David Carlson, the director of the Climate Research Programme at the WMO. “The super El Niño is only partly to blame. Abnormal is the new normal.”
 
 

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