Monday Morning Update: Enhanced Risk Of Severe Weather Later Today

The severe threat appears to be on the increase as we go throughout the first day of your work week, now with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather. It appears the greatest threat of strong to severe storms will be late this afternoon into the early evening hours.

If you are heading out to the State Fair later today, officials do have plans in case severe weather impacts the fair. Here's an excerpt from it - you can read more of it by clicking here: "In the event of severe weather at the Minnesota State Fairgrounds, the State Fair Police Department and staff will work closely to ensure the safety of all. If you are on the Minnesota State Fairgrounds when severe weather becomes imminent: The National Weather Service notifies State Fair Police ahead of time, as soon as severe weather moves into eastern Hennepin County. You will hear a severe weather siren and/or be alerted by State Fair Police squads that you need to seek shelter. Move into a nearby building, preferably one of the five designated storm shelter buildings identified on all official Minnesota State Fair maps (also available at any information booth on the fairgrounds). You will be notified when it’s safe to move out onto the fairgrounds."

The greatest threat will be damaging winds as storms form into a line and sweep through the Twin Cities into Wisconsin. Damaging winds will potentially be widespread with a few significant severe wind gusts (potentially 74+ mph) possible.

A few isolated tornadoes will be possible in the late afternoon hours, especially if storms can stay cellular. The threat will be greatest before storms turn linear, however, a few embedded spin-ups could be possible as well in the line of storms as it moves through.

A few large hail reports will also be possible, especially if storms can stay cellular.

Here's a look at how the radar could evolve later today. Initial storms during the mid to late afternoon hours will form into a line of storms by the evening, racing across the Twin Cities and into Wisconsin.


Sunday Morning Rumbles

If you live across parts of east-central Minnesota, north of the Twin Cities, there's the potential that a few storms woke you up Sunday morning. Some of these storms were strong to severe, with numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued and at least ten storm reports issued due to hail. The largest hail reported was 1.75" in diameter eight miles west of Braham, with 1.5" hail reported two miles south-southeast of Gilman.


Drier In 2018 Than The Past Few Year So Far In The Twin Cities

Hopefully the rain we are expected to receive the next few days will help the rainfall deficit we are currently facing in the Twin Cities. For the entire year through August 25th, we haven't hit 20" of rain - chalking up only 19.92" so far - which is 1.52" below average. The last time we didn't have 20" of rain by August 25th was back in 2009 when only 16.48" of rain had fallen.

Looking at meteorological summer so far (which ends this Friday!), we have recorded 10.65" of rain in the Twin Cities. That value is 1.21" below average, and we have to go back to the summer of 2013 to find similar rainfall totals with just a handful of days left.

Drier conditions have allowed drought conditions to spread across parts of the state. As of the Thursday Drought Monitor update, 47.65% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with 9% of the state (all in northwestern Minnesota) under moderate drought.


Nagging Thunder Threat - Remembering John McCain
By Paul Douglas

I count myself lucky to have had a John McCain Moment. It was 2007, and I was emceeing a gala, honoring returning Iraqi war veterans. Senator McCain was guest of honor. Sitting at his table I asked if warming might be a fluke, a coincidence?

I'll never forget. He rolled his eyes at me and said "I just returned from the Yukon. I see what's happening in my home state of Arizona. It's happening.”

In 2009 he attended commissioning at the Naval Academy to see the graduation of his pilot-son. He made a point of keeping a low profile and avoiding press. He wanted to honor graduates, not call any attention to himself.

John McCain was warrior, patriot and statesman - with the heart of a servant.

Today will be the last steamy day in sight with strong to severe T-storms late PM and tonight. A few showers linger Tuesday as temperatures cool, with clearing Wednesday PM and nice weather much of Thursday. T-storms return Friday thought. I'd wager a stale corn dog that Sunday will be the nicer day of next weekend.

Enjoy today's sweat-on-a-stick; comfortable 70s return for much of this week.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: T-storms, some severe. High 87. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Cooler with lingering showers. High 73. Low 55. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: AM shower, slow PM clearing. High 70. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Dry most of the day. Few storms late? High 76. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Humid again with more numerous storms. High 78. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Damp start, then PM clearing. High 79. Low 56. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Probably the sunnier, nicer day. High 78. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.


This Day in Weather History
August 27th

1992: A chilly night in Embarrass, where the temperature dips to 28 degrees.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 27th

Average High: 79F (Record: 99F set in 1926)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 42F set in 1887)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 2.80" set in 1978)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 27th

Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 29 minutes and 44 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 57 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 6:30 AM Or Later: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 7:30 PM Or Earlier: September 12th (7:29 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 13 Hours Of Daylight?: September 6th (12 hours, 59 minutes, 37 seconds)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

With a cold front moving through the state, more showers and storms will be possible on Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Northwest Minnesota has the best potential of remaining dry. Highs will be in the 80s ahead of the cold front across parts of southern Minnesota - meanwhile, but behind the front highs will only be in the 60s across northwestern Minnesota.

And a few of the storms across southern and eastern Minnesota could be on the strong side during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a Slight Risk of severe across parts of the state, including the Twin Cities. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.

Highs across the southern half of Minnesota and along the North Shore on Monday will be above average for late August by up to 10 degrees. We'll see just the opposite across most of northern Minnesota - especially northwestern portions - with highs that are up to 10 degrees below average.

Tuesday will be a cool day across the state with highs below average across most of the state. Highs will be in the 70s across southern Minnesota, but only in the 50s across parts of northern Minnesota, especially in the Arrowhead.

The good news for those who are hanging on to the last days of summer is that Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week. Temperatures after Tuesday will slowly warm back to around 80 by the end of the week.

After a wet start to the week both Monday and Tuesday, we should see drier weather for the middle of the week. Another system brings in the chance of showers and storms Friday, and we can't rule out the potential of a few storms around for Labor Day weekend.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front moving through the upper Midwest will spark off showers and storms, some of which could be on the strong side and produce heavy rain. Another system will help produce rain across parts of the Northern Rockies... and even some snow at the highest elevations. More on the snow in just a moment.

The heaviest rain through Friday morning is expected across parts of the western Great Lakes, where rounds of rain could bring the potential of 2-3"+ of rain (mainly through Tuesday).


Heat To Begin The Week In The Northeast

As we head into the new work week, we will be watching a heat wave start to build across parts of the Northwest. Highs will climb into the 90s from Washington D.C. to New York City, which is where the first day of the U.S. Open will kick off.

Temperatures will continue to climb on Tuesday, with highs in the mid-90s expected for areas like Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Record highs will be possible for areas like Islip, NY, and Manchester, NH.

Heat continues Wednesday across the region, with hump day expected to be the warmest of the stretch in Boston and could approach a record (which is 96 for the day). Temperatures will cool off on Thursday behind a cold front.


The "S" Word Has Returned... Snow!

Oh boy, that's right, I'm talking about snow... and it's not even September. A few inches of snow (maybe up to 7" in spots) will be possible across some of the highest peaks in parts of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming Monday as a strong blast of Canadian air moves in. Warmer temperatures are expected later in the week, so this snow is certainly not going to last. However, it is just a sign that winter is coming!


Tropical Update

Lane continues to move away from Hawaii after dropping over 40" of rain across parts of the Big Island and is expected to become post-tropical Sunday Night or Monday.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam has formed over 1,200 miles west-southwest of the tip of Baja California. Miriam is expected to continue west over the next few days before taking a turn northward late in the week. This system is expected to become a hurricane Monday.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific, the National Hurricane Center is watching another area of low pressure which could become a tropical system later this week. This area has a 90% chance of formation over the next five days.

Meanwhile, as we are approaching the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season... no formation is expected in the next five days.


Behind uneventful Minnesota summer weather lurks signs of climate change

More from the Star Tribune: "Lake Superior around the Apostle Islands had its first massive algae bloom. The Twin Cities area experienced its highest-ever nighttime temperatures. And Minnesota reported a record number of bad air days, due largely to the catastrophic forest fires in California and Canada, with perhaps more on the way.  “This summer is indicative of what we expect to see ... as we move into the future,” said Kenny Blumenfeld, a climatologist at the state climatology office.  Few Twin Cities residents could have missed the string of stinky, eye-itching bad air days that dragged on through August, thanks to the forest fires."

So Far, More Heat Waves Do Not Mean More Heat Deaths

More from NPR: "More Americans die from the effects of heat than of any other form of severe weather, and this summer has seen one heat wave after another. Some places in the U.S. and elsewhere have recorded their highest temperatures ever. In fact, the average temperature around the planet over the past four years has been the highest ever recorded, and nine of the 10 hottest years were all in this century. (The other was 1998.)  All of this would suggest that more people must be experiencing heat-related illness or death. But it's more complicated than that."

'Rain dancing 2.0': should humans be using tech to control the weather?

More from The Guardian: "Farmers in Mexico have accused Volkswagen of ruining their crops by installing “hail cannons”, which fire shockwaves into the atmosphere in an effort to prevent hail storms from damaging the cars rolling off the production line.  The devices are being blamed for causing a drought during months when farmers near the German carmaker’s plant in Puebla expected plenty of rain.  While some may be convinced of the hail cannon’s power, scientific research has cast doubt on these observations. But effective or not, the technology represents humanity’s latest attempt to control the weather – rain dancing 2.0 – and has raised concerns about the lack of regulation and the assumption that there is a quick fix for complex meteorological phenomena."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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