Minnesota Crop Progress

The USDA puts out crop progress updates every Monday during the crop season for Minnesota (and other states across the nation), and in the release this week they stated that five days were suitable for fieldwork last week thanks to warmer weather across the region. 90% of topsoil and 91% of subsoil are rated either in the adequate or surplus moisture categories.

As we look at the progress of certain crops across the state, both corn and soybeans are ahead of their five-year average in both amount planted and emerged.

The good news is that most of the crops in the fields are in good to excellent shape. Hopefully this will continue through the rest of the summer!

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Storms Likely Wednesday - Recent Weather Helping Crops
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

After a slow start to the year, our recent stretch of warmer weather has been helping the farmers out in the fields. As of the Monday crop progress update from the USDA, corn is now 98% planted and 87% emerged across the state, both of which are just slightly above the five-year average. Recent rain has helped soil moisture supplies, as 90% of topsoil and 91% of subsoil are rated either in the adequate or surplus moisture categories.

More rain is likely today across the state in two batches. First, a dying line of storms will move through central and southern Minnesota this morning. More storms will redevelop over far southern Minnesota in the afternoon and evening and a few of those could be on the strong side. More rumbles of thunder will be possible Thursday Night into Saturday as well.

We’ll see fairly steady daily temperatures into early next week with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. The extended outlook keeps temperatures above average through at least Father’s Day. 

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Storms, mainly in the AM. High 81. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds & sun. Late night storms. High 81. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NE 3-8 mph.
FRIDAY: Scattered storms. High 83. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated storms. High 80. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny skies and breezy. High 81. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day storms. High 82. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
TUESDAY: AM leftover storm? Turning sunny. High 81. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
June 6th

1864: Light frost is reported in St. Paul as a chilly air mass moves over the state.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
June 6th

Average High: 76F (Record: 97F set in 2011)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 36F set in 1897)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.59" set in 1974)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 6th

Sunrise: 5:27 AM
Sunset: 8:56 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 28 minutes and 57 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 5 seconds

*Earliest Sunrise: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Next Sunset Of 9:00 PM Or Later: June 12th (9:00 PM)
*Day With Most Daylight? June 21st (Daylight Length: 15:36:49)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Starting off with the forecast Wednesday for the Twin Cities, we'll be watching the chance of storms throughout the day. The best time frame for storms in the Twin Cities will be in the morning hours with a complex of storms moving east out of the Dakotas Tuesday Night. Redeveloping storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours, but models show the best chance of those occurring over far southern Minnesota. Temperatures will start off in the low 60s, climbing into the low 80s for highs.

Here's a look at the state Wednesday. Again, a complex of storms will roll out of the Dakotas Tuesday Night, bringing central/southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin the chance of storms in the morning hours. Redeveloping storms during the afternoon and evening will mainly affect far southern Minnesota, with the potential of some strong storms. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s for most locations Wednesday, with only 50s and 60s possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

As mentioned above, a few of the storms late Wednesday could be on the strong side. There is a Slight Risk of severe storms across southern parts of Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

Highs across the state Wedensday are expected to be above average by a few degrees. They could be up to 10 degrees above average across parts of southern Minnesota.

We will continue to see fairly steady highs (low to mid 80s) into early next week here in the Twin Cities. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 60s. Models continue to indicate the potential of highs approaching 90 for the middle of next week, however they have been consistent the past couple days of highs approaching 90 in the 7-8 day time frame, so I don't know how much I buy into higher temperatures at the moment.

Heavy rain - up to an inch - could fall across parts of central and southern Minnesota with storms that move through Tuesday Night through the day Wednesday.

We continue to watch unsettled weather through the week across the region, with more storm chances Thursday Night into Saturday. The best chance of seeing storms will be Friday and Friday Night.

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National Weather Forecast

Here's a look at the weather across the nation Wednesday. The main stories we will be watching include a low pressure center and associated fronts which will bring rain to parts of the upper Midwest and Plains, and a stalled front near the Gulf Coast that could produce some showers and storms.

The heaviest rain through Sunday morning across the country is expected across parts of the upper Midwest, where 2"+ of rain could fall over the next several days.

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ND pastures already showing some stress related to 2017 drought, 2018 dry spring

More from the Inforum: "Pasture readiness for 2018 across North Dakota has been at least a couple of weeks behind other years, and there are indications of early stress that producers should monitor.  A variety of issues are affecting pastures, including continued stress from the 2017 drought, dry spring conditions, a late warm-up and, in some cases, overgrazing last year.  Drought conditions continue to plague parts of North Dakota, with the area in severe drought more than doubling from 6.7 percent of the state in the May 24 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor to 13.95 in the May 31 release. Areas in moderate drought also increased slightly, as did areas considered abnormally dry. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions also increased slightly in South Dakota, while conditions continue to improve in Montana where only a small amount of the state is now considered abnormally dry."

Hurricane Season 2018: Experts Warn of Super Storms, Call For New Category 6

More from Inside Climate News: "As the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins, scientists are worried that U.S. coastal communities could face more super storms with winds, storm surges and rainfall so intense that current warning categories don't fully capture the threat.  This year's forecast is about average and much more subdued than last summer's hyperactive season turned out to be, partly due to cooler ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, as well as a nascent El Niño pattern. But that doesn't mean an individual storm won't blow up to exceptional strength, as Andrew did before striking Florida in 1992, an otherwise relatively quiet year.  Heat trapped by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is raising the chances of that happening, said Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann."

'Carbon bubble' could spark global financial crisis, study warns

More from The Guardian: "Plunging prices for renewable energy and rapidly increasing investment in low-carbon technologies could leave fossil fuel companies with trillions in stranded assets and spark a global financial crisis, a new study has found.  A sudden drop in demand for fossil fuels before 2035 is likely, according to the study, given the current global investments and economic advantages in a low-carbon transition.  The existence of a “carbon bubble” – assets in fossil fuels that are currently overvalued because, in the medium and long-term, the world will have to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions – has long been proposed by academics, activists and investors. The new study, published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that a sharp slump in the value of fossil fuels would cause this bubble to burst, and posits that such a slump is likely before 2035 based on current patterns of energy use."

Hawaii just passed a law to make the state carbon neutral by 2045

More from Fast Company: "In a little less than three decades, Hawaii plans to be carbon neutral–the most ambitious climate goal in the United States. Governor David Ige signed a bill today committing to make the state fully carbon neutral by 2045, along with a second bill that will use carbon offsets to help fund planting trees throughout Hawaii. A third bill requires new building projects to consider how high sea levels will rise in their engineering decisions.  The state is especially vulnerable to climate change–sea level rise, for example, threatens to cause $19 billion in economic losses–and that’s one of the reasons that the new laws had support. “We’re on the forefront of climate change impacts,” says Scott Glenn, who leads the state’s environmental quality office. “We experience it directly and we’re a small island. People feel the trade wind days becoming less. They notice the changes in rain. They feel it getting hotter. Because we are directly exposed to this, there’s no denying it.” The state’s political leaders, he says, are “unified in acknowledging that climate change is real and that we do need to do something about it.”"

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Wednesday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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