Good News for Snow Lovers - Bad News For Your Tuesday PM Commute. New 12z model data nudges the storm track farther north and west, putting the Twin Cities back into the zone of plowable snow amounts. The heaviest snows are still likely over southern and southeastern suburbs, where some 5-10" amounts are possible by Tuesday night. Expect a sharp snowfall gradient to set up close to St. Cloud where only a couple inches is expected. But there's little doubt the PM rush on Tuesday will be a snowy, wind-whipped, white-knuckle slog.
Winter Storm Warning MSP Metro, Blizzard Warning Southwestern Minnesota. Reflecting the northward shift in the storm track the entire MSP metro area is under a Winter Storm Warning with Blizzard Warnings posted over south central and southwestern Minnesota; the farther south and west you drive tomorrow the heavier the snow, stronger the winds and lower visibility should be. AM rush hour may not be impacted, but PM rush hour most definitely will. Interactive ap: Aeris Weather. More on the warnings:
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 11 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO MINNEAPOLIS...TO CUMBERLAND WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS TO YIELD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...GENERALLY FROM REDWOOD FALLS...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. TO THE NORTH AND EAST...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...GENERALLY FROM A GRANITE FALLS...TO LITCHFIELD...TO TWIN CITIES METRO...TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE.
Catching Up With GFS and ECMWF. This morning's crop of NAM guidance (12k and 4k resolution) picks up on trends from yesterday. On Sunday GFS and ECMWF were both predicting plowable amounts of snow for MSP; today NAM seems to agree, so models are (finally) coming into some semblance of alignment and agreement. That and $5 will get you a cup of fancy coffee. It's hard to read, but the 4km NAM (WRF) model above prints out 6-7" for much of the metro, closer to 10" along I-90, but only a couple inches for St. Cloud. Map: WeatherBell.
More Impressive. Most models now print out anywhere form .3 to .8" liquid, which at surface temperatures in the mid-20s should be good for some 3-8" amounts, enough to shove and plow, with heaviest amounts south of the Minnesota River. Graphic: Aeris Enterprise.